We develop a term structure model that decomposes nominal yields into the sum of an expectation, term premium, and convexity term and in turn of their real and inflation counterparts. The model explicitly captures the interrelation between yield-only and macroeconomic factors while allowing for aggregate stochastic volatility. We extract the components from the nominal and real yield curve of the United States, the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and Japan. We find that short-rate expectations have steadily declined over the last two decades and account for the bulk of yield dynamics. Term premia increase with maturity but explain a smaller fraction of yield forecast error variance than previously documented. With regard to yield comovement, the United States generates the strongest spillovers at the long end of the yield curve, whereas the Japanese market is the top importer of shocks.

The article studies liquidity provision by institutional investors using trade-level data. We find that hedge fund trades are a more important predictor of stock-level liquidity than mutual fund trades. However, hedge funds’ liquidity provision is more exposed to financial conditions than that of mutual funds. Hedge funds that are more constrained in terms of leverage, age, asset illiquidity, and past performance exhibit a stronger shift toward liquidity consumption when funding condition tighten. Stocks with more exposure to constrained liquidity providing hedge funds suffered more during the financial crisis.