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Was the New Deal Contractionary?

American Economic Review 2012 102(1), 524-555 open access
Can government policies that increase the monopoly power of firms and the militancy of unions increase output? This paper shows that the answer is yes under certain “emergency” conditions. These emergency conditions—zero interest rates and deflation—were satisfied during the Great Depression in the United States. The New Deal, which facilitated monopolies and union militancy, was therefore expansionary in the model presented. This conclusion is contrary to a large previous literature. The main reason for this divergence is that this paper incorporates rigid prices and the zero bound on the short-term interest rate. JEL: E23, E32, E52, E62, J51, N12, N42

Are CFOs’ Trades More Informative Than CEOs’ Trades?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2012 47(4), 743-762 open access
We investigate whether trades made by chief financial officers (CFOs) reveal more information about future stock returns than those by chief executive officers (CEOs). We find that CFOs earn statistically and economically higher abnormal returns following their purchases of company shares than CEOs. During 1992–2002, CFOs earned an average 12-month excess return that is 5% higher than that by CEOs. The superior performance by CFOs occurs notwithstanding controls for risk factors and persists even after their trades are publicly disclosed. Further analysis shows that CFO purchases are associated with more positive future earnings surprises than CEO purchases, suggesting that CFOs incorporate better information about future earnings.

Institutional Investors and Mutual Fund Governance: Evidence from Retail–Institutional Fund Twins

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(12), 3530-3571 open access
Advisors often manage multiple versions of a fund. These “twins” have the same manager and similar performance but are sold to different investors with differing abilities to select and monitor managers. Comparing investor flows in retail and institutional twins, we find that institutional investors are more sensitive to high fees and poor risk-adjusted performance. Consistent with the reduction of agency problems from greater monitoring, retail funds with an institutional twin outperform other retail funds by 1.5% per year. After the institutional twin is created, expenses decrease while measures of managerial effort at the retail fund increase.

Gender Bias in Intrahousehold Allocation: Evidence from an Unintentional Experiment

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2012 94(2), 552-565 open access
We use data from a Brazilian social program to investigate the existence of gender bias in intrahousehold allocations of resources. The program makes cash transfers to mothers and pregnant women in poor households. Bureaucratic mistakes, beyond the control of the applicants, have inadvertently excluded many households that had applied and were accepted to the program. This unintentional natural experiment is used to identify the impact of an exogenous variation in female nonlabor income over household consumption. We find that program participation led to an increase in food expenditure, but this effect is not due to women being the benefit recipients.

Managers’ Ethical Evaluations of Earnings Management and Its Consequences*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2012 29(3), 910-927 open access
Despite a recent focus on the ethics of earnings management, research has generally not examined the specific ethical dilemma that arises when a choice to engage in earnings management results in positive organizational consequences. This study focuses on the consequences of earnings management behavior in response to the question: Do the ends of positive organizational consequences justify the means of earnings management? We investigate manager evaluations of, and reactions to, a scenario in which a hypothetical employee makes a choice whether or not to engage in earnings management behavior, with consequences that are either favorable or unfavorable to the organization. Two hundred and sixty-four experienced managers provided responses to the scenario in a controlled experimental research design. The results indicate that managers may be motivated to discount the ethical impact of earnings management behavior when the consequence has a favorable impact on the organization—implying that the ends justify the means. This finding, in turn, suggests that incrementalism, or the ethical “slippery slope” of overlooking seemingly minor ethical breaches, can undermine efforts to establish a strong ethical tone throughout the organization. Implications of these findings for corporate governance and future research are discussed.

Equity Mispricing and Leverage Adjustment Costs

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2012 47(3), 589-616 open access
We find that equity mispricing impacts the speed at which firms adjust to their target leverage (TL) and does so in predictable ways depending on whether the firm is over- or underlevered. For example, firms that are above their TL and should therefore issue equity (or retire debt) adjust more rapidly toward their target when their equity is overvalued. However, when a firm is undervalued but needs to reduce leverage, the speed of adjustment is much slower. Our findings support the role of equity mispricing as an important factor that alters the cost of making capital structure adjustments.

Organ Allocation Policy and the Decision to Donate

American Economic Review 2012 102(5), 2018-2047 open access
Organ donations from deceased donors provide the majority of transplanted organs in the United States, and one deceased donor can save numerous lives by providing multiple organs. Nevertheless, most Americans are not registered organ donors despite the relative ease of becoming one. We study in the laboratory an experimental game modeled on the decision to register as an organ donor and investigate how changes in the management of organ waiting lists might impact donations. We find that an organ allocation policy giving priority on waiting lists to those who previously registered as donors has a significant positive impact on registration.

The flow-performance relationship around the world

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(6), 1759-1780 open access
We use a new dataset to study how mutual fund flows depend on past performance across 28 countries. We show that there are marked differences in the flow-performance relationship across countries, suggesting that US findings concerning its shape do not apply universally. We find that mutual fund investors sell losers more and buy winners less in more developed countries. This is because investors in more developed countries are more sophisticated and face lower costs of participating in the mutual fund industry. Higher country-level convexity is positively associated with higher levels of risk taking by fund managers.