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Are Bond-financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis

Journal of Political Economy 1984 92(1), 123-135 open access
This paper considers the possible theoretical validity of the following "monetarjst hypothesis": that a constant, positive government budget deficit can be maintained permanently and without inflation if it is financed by the issue of bonds rather than money. The question is studied in a discrete-time, perfect-foresight version of the competitive equilibrium model of It is shown that the monetarist hypothesis is invalid if the deficit is defined exclusive of interest payments, but is valid under the conventional definition. It is also shown that the stock of bonds can grow indefinitely at a rate in excess of the rate of output growth, provided that the difference is less than the rate of time preference.