The proposed budget for 2000 in Table 1 projects an operating loss of $736 thousand, investment income of $598 thousand, and an overall deficit for the year of $138 thousand.Net

The Finance Committee of the American Economic Association met at the Chicago Club, Chicago, IL, at 12:30 P.M. on December 9, 1998. Present were John Cochrane, Robert Dederick, Robert Hamada, C. Elton Hinshaw (Chair) , and John Siegfried (Secretary of the Association ) ; Representing Stein Roe & Farnham, investment counsel for the Association, were Robert McNeill, Scott W. Vogg, and Debbie Jansen. In 1987, the Committee reviewed recommendations presented by the AEA Committee on indexing Association funds concerning the long-term allocation of the Association’s investment assets. As a result of that recommendation, it was agreed that the Association’s portfolio comprise a combination of an S&P 500 Index Fund, Stein Roe & Farnham’s specialty equity mutual funds, and a bond portion managed by Stein Roe & Farnham. This restructuring took place at the end of June 1988. The current portfolio includes holdings in the Vanguard Index Trust Fund, as well as several special Growth Funds and an International Fund, under the supervision of Stein Roe & Farnham (SRF) . The Fixed Income portion of the portfolio is currently invested in SRF’s Intermediate Term Government and Corporate taxable funds. With respect to the calendar-year 1998 performance of the Association’s portfolio, the total return including cash, bonds, and equity holdings was approximately 17.2 percent. The benchmark, which consisted of 5 percent cash, 25 percent Lehman G/C Intermediate Bond Index, 60 percent S&P 500 Index, and 10 percent EAFE index returned 16.7 percent. The returns from the AEA portfolio have now outperformed the benchmark portfolio for six years in a row. The Committee discussed a change to the allocation of the portfolio and the benchmark. It was approved that the benchmark portfolio would become 0 percent cash, 25 percent Lehman G/C Intermediate Bond Index, 60 percent S&P 500 index, 5 percent Russell 2000 index, and 10 percent EAFE index. Additionally, it was agreed to move 5 percent of the assets in the S&P 500 Index Fund into the bond portion of the portfolio immediately. Members can obtain a list of the assets in the portfolio by writing the Treasurer.

This study investigates the relationship between economic conditions and health. Total mortality and eight of the ten sources of fatalities examined are shown to exhibit a procyclical fluctuation, with suicides representing an important exception. The variations are largest for those causes and age groups where behavioral responses are most plausible, and there is some evidence that the unfavorable health effects of temporary upturns are partially or fully offset if the economic growth is long-lasting. An accompanying analysis of micro data indicates that smoking and obesity increase when the economy strengthens, whereas physical activity is reduced and diet becomes less healthy.

Various theories have been proposed to explain momentum in stock returns. We test the gradual‐information‐diffusion model of Hong and Stein (1999) and establish three key results. First, once one moves past the very smallest stocks, the profitability of momentum strategies declines sharply with firm size. Second, holding size fixed, momentum strategies work better among stocks with low analyst coverage. Finally, the effect of analyst coverage is greater for stocks that are past losers than for past winners. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that firm‐specific information, especially negative information, diffuses only gradually across the investing public.

This paper focuses on pricing and hedging options on a zero-coupon bond in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) framework when the value and/or functional form of forward interest rates volatility is unknown, but is assumed to lie between two fixed values. Due to the link existing between the drift and the diffusion coefficients of the forward rates in the Heath, Jarrow and Morton framework, this is equivalent to hedging and pricing the option when the underlying interest rate model is unknown. We show that a continuous range of option prices consistent with no arbitrage exist. This range is bounded by the smallest upper-hedging strategy and the largest lower-hedging strategy prices, which are characterized as the solutions of two non-linear partial differential equations. We also discuss several pricing and hedging illustrations.

Kevin C. W. Chen, Michael P. Schoderbek, The 1993 Tax Rate Increase and Deferred Tax Adjustments: A Test of Functional Fixation, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 38, No. 1 (Spring, 2000), pp. 23-44

We examine cross-national generalization of the relative importance of factors that affect supplier selection and level of usage for global business services providers. Tests indicate that the majority of the response coefficients for a model of foreign exchange markets are equal across the four countries studied – U.S., Canada, U.K., and Germany. Inter-country differences in buyer response seem most related to competitiveness and identifiable country-specific institutional factors.

In this paper, we embed the double entry accounting structure in a simple belief revision (estimation) problem. We ask the following question: Presented with a set of financial statements (and priors), what is the reader's “best guess” of the underlying transactions that generated these statements? Two properties of accounting information facilitate a particularly simple closed form solution to this estimation problem. First, accounting information is the outcome of a linear aggregation process. Second, the aggregation rule is double entry.

This paper demonstrates that the use of GARCH-type models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs) may lead to the production of inaccurate and therefore inefficient capital requirements. We show that this inaccuracy stems from the fact that GARCH models typically overstate the degree of persistence in return volatility. A simple modification to the model is found to improve the accuracy of MCRR estimates in both back- and out-of-sample tests. Given that internal risk management models are currently in widespread usage in some parts of the world (most notably the USA), and will soon be permitted for EC banks and investment firms, we believe that our paper should serve as a valuable caution to risk management practitioners who are using, or intend to use this popular class of models.