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Management forecast credibility and underreaction to news

Review of Accounting Studies 2013 18(4), 956-986 open access
In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more credible forecasts are associated with a larger reaction in the short window around the management forecasts and a smaller post-management forecast drift in returns, we show that the magnitude of the underreaction is smaller for firms that provide more credible forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by providing out-of-sample evidence of the drift in returns documented in the post-earnings-announcement drift literature, with the credibility of the news being one explanation for the phenomenon.

Implications of Transaction Costs for the Post–Earnings Announcement Drift

Journal of Accounting Research 2008 46(3), 661-696 open access
This paper examines the effect of transaction costs on the post–earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Using standard market microstructure features we show that transaction costs constrain the informed trades that are necessary to incorporate earnings information into price. This implies weaker return responses at the time of the earnings announcement and higher subsequent returns drift for firms with higher transaction costs. Consistent with this prediction, we find that earnings response coefficients are lower for firms with higher transaction costs. Using portfolio analyses, we find that the profits of implementing the PEAD trading strategy are significantly reduced by transaction costs. In addition, we show, using a combination of portfolio and regression analyses, that firms with higher transaction costs are the ones that provide the higher abnormal returns for the PEAD strategy. Our results indicate that transaction costs can provide an explanation not only for the persistence but also for the existence of PEAD.

The effect of shareholder activism on earnings management: Evidence from shareholder proposals

Journal of Corporate Finance 2021 69, 102014 open access
We find that in general, both accrual-based and real earnings management decrease after the passage of shareholder-sponsored governance proposals. However, when accounting for the type of proposal, we observe significant heterogeneity in the effects on earnings management. Specifically, proposals focused on changing the governance structure (e.g., board independence) lead to reductions in both types of earnings management, whereas proposals specifically targeted at improving financial reporting quality lead to decreased accrual-based earnings management but increased real earnings management. The results suggest that constraints on accrual-based earnings management induce a shift toward real earnings management. Our paper indicates that the nature of the shareholder proposal has a significant impact on shareholder intervention.

Freedom is not free: Manager disloyalty and bank debt reliance

Journal of Corporate Finance 2026 96, 102914 open access
Traditionally, fiduciaries' duty of loyalty requires them not to pursue business opportunities that could benefit their own companies. However, starting with Delaware in 2000, several states began allowing companies to waive this duty. We find that the debt structure of firms in waiver-adopting states shifts from public debt to bank debt, suggesting that these firms rely on more intense bank monitoring to address potential managerial disloyalty. The shift is more pronounced for firms with CEOs who are more likely to appropriate business opportunities and less pronounced for firms with stronger shareholder monitoring. We also find that bank debt mitigates the adverse effect of corporate opportunity waivers on shareholder wealth, the stock market reacts positively to the bank debt issuances of firms affected by these waivers, and corporate opportunity waiver laws increase the total debt market funding costs for affected firms. Collectively, our paper provides novel evidence that firms seek creditor governance to mitigate the loss of internal governance resulting from changes in the legal environment.

The spillover effect of private firm disclosure on public firms’ loan pricing

Review of Accounting Studies 2026 open access
We examine whether private firm disclosure affects the price that public firms pay for their bank loans. Using global data on syndicated loans, we find that private firm disclosure significantly reduces public firms’ loan spreads. This finding supports a positive information externalities view whereby private firm disclosure helps banks evaluate public borrowers’ credit risk within the industry context and reduces information asymmetry between banks and borrowers. Consistent with this mechanism, we find larger reductions in public firms’ loan spreads when banks have less information about the borrower or lower expected monitoring intensity, when public-firm borrowers are more informationally opaque, when private firms have greater economic importance in the industry, when private and public firms are more economically similar, or when a larger share of private firms in an industry have audited financial statements. We show that private firm disclosure generates positive externalities for the loan market by reducing information asymmetry.

Investment portfolio management to meet or beat earnings expectations

Review of Accounting Studies 2025 30(2), 2134-2183 open access
Insurers can boost their earnings by accruing interest income from their corporate bond investments. We document that insurers have higher corporate bond investments as well as less equity and cash holdings, when their parents meet or just beat analysts’ quarterly earnings forecasts, compared to when their parents miss or comfortably beat the forecasts. The investment in corporate bonds to boost earnings is more pronounced when bond offerings provide more opportunities for accruing interest income, when the parent’s corporate governance is weaker, when the parent’s managers have more equity incentives, when insurers face more competition, when other earnings management techniques are used, or when the insurance segment is more important to the parent. Finally, insurers suspected of helping their parents meet or beat earnings benchmarks experience worse investment performance in subsequent years, presumably because, by investing more in corporate bonds, the insurers forgo investment opportunities with higher longer-term returns.

Investor Competition over Information and the Pricing of Information Asymmetry

The Accounting Review 2012 87(1), 35-58 open access
Whether the information environment affects the cost of capital is a fundamental question in accounting and finance research. Relying on theories about competition between informed investors as well as the pricing of information asymmetry, we hypothesize a cross-sectional variation in the pricing of information asymmetry that is conditional on competition. We develop and validate empirical proxies for competition using the number and concentration of institutional investor ownership. Using these proxies, we find a lower pricing of information asymmetry when there is more competition. Overall, our results suggest that competition between informed investors has an important effect on how the information environment affects the cost of capital.

Bank Competition and Financial Stability: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2016 51(1), 1-28 open access
We examine the link between bank competition and financial stability using the recent financial crisis as the setting. We utilize variation in banking competition at the state level and find that banks facing less competition are more likely to engage in risky activities, more likely to face regulatory intervention, and more likely to fail. Focusing on the real estate market, we find that states with less competition had higher rates of mortgage approval, experienced greater inflation in housing prices before the crisis, and experienced a steeper decline in housing prices during the crisis. Overall, our study is consistent with greater competition increasing financial stability.

Credit information sharing and firm innovation: Evidence from the establishment of public credit registries

Contemporary Accounting Research 2025 42(2), 774-806 open access
Lenders are reluctant to finance firms' innovation activities because such activities tend to be opaque, with a high likelihood of negative outcomes that could hamper loan repayment. We posit that public credit registries (PCRs), which play an important role in credit information sharing in many countries, can facilitate financing by reducing adverse selection and moral hazard and increasing bank competition. Using the staggered establishment of PCRs in different countries and an international firm–patent data set, we find that credit information sharing positively affects firm innovation, especially in firms that experience a larger increase in bank debt financing after the establishment of a PCR. This finding is consistent with the notion that credit information sharing promotes firm innovation by easing bank debt financing frictions. We also find a stronger effect in countries that experience a large increase in bank competition after the establishment of a PCR—consistent with increased bank competition serving as a channel through which credit information sharing facilitates bank debt financing, thereby generating a positive effect on firm innovation. The positive effect is more pronounced when the established PCR has features that promote credit information sharing. It is also more pronounced for opaque firms and firms in innovation‐intensive industries, indicating that credit information sharing helps to reduce financing frictions. Finally, we posit and find evidence that firm efficiency in transforming innovation inputs into outputs improves after the establishment of a PCR. Overall, our paper offers novel insights into how credit information sharing facilitates firm innovation.

Credit information sharing and investment efficiency: Cross‐country evidence

Contemporary Accounting Research 2024 41(4), 2099-2133 open access
Credit information sharing allows creditors to obtain borrowers' relevant credit information, and it can improve borrowers' investment outcomes that are funded by debt. Using reforms to European countries' public credit registries (PCRs) to capture mandated information sharing among creditors, we examine the impact of such sharing on firms' investment efficiency. We find that information sharing enhances firms' investment efficiency, which we measure by their investment‐ q sensitivity. This finding is consistent with credit information sharing enabling creditors to better screen borrowers to mitigate adverse selection and enhancing borrower discipline to avoid a bad credit record, which leads to the borrower making more efficient investments. We also document that the information sharing effect is more pronounced when firms rely more on debt financing, when the shared credit information is more accessible, when firms' information environment is more opaque, and when there is a greater information monopoly in the banking system. We offer supplementary evidence that the effect is also more salient when PCRs have characteristics that suggest more effective credit information sharing. Overall, our paper offers new insight into whether and how information sharing in credit markets enhances firms' investment efficiency. More broadly, it highlights how making more borrower information available to creditors can have important economic spillover effects on firm outcomes.