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Inflation and Individual Investors’ Behavior: Evidence from the German Hyperinflation

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(12), 5012-5045 open access
We analyze how individual investors respond to inflation. We introduce a unique data set containing information on local inflation and security portfolios of more than 2,000 clients of a German bank between 1920 and 1924, covering the German hyperinflation. We find that individual investors buy fewer (sell more) stocks when facing higher local inflation. This effect is more pronounced for less sophisticated investors. Moreover, we document a positive relation between local inflation and forgone returns following stock sales. Our findings are consistent with individual investors suffering from money illusion. Alternative explanations, such as consumption needs, are unlikely to drive our results.

Financial advice and retirement savings

Review of Finance 2026 open access
We study the impact of financial advice on retirement savings. We document that advisors help clients to prepare for retirement by inducing them to take advantage of tax incentives offered on retirement accounts. Advisors particularly promote retirement funds as compared to savings accounts. After-tax returns of advisor-induced retirement fund investments exceed returns of plausible alternative investments. We find no indication that advisor-induced contributions to retirement accounts lead to negative side effects, such as reductions in other savings or liquidity constraints. Hence, we provide evidence of a bright side of financial advice. Furthermore, investments in retirement funds increase bank profits, pointing toward a win–win situation with rent-sharing between the bank and its clients. However, advisors do not in particular target clients that are at a higher risk of under-saving for retirement, such as female clients, clients with lower wealth, and less-educated clients.

The Impact of Financial Advice on Trade Performance and Behavioral Biases

Review of Finance 2017 21(2), 871-910 open access
We use a dataset from a large retail bank to examine the impact of financial advice on investors’ stock trading performance and behavioral biases. Our data allow us to classify each individual trade as either advised or independent and to compare them in a trade-by-trade within-person analysis. Thus, our study is not plagued by the endogeneity problems typically faced by studies on financial advice. We document that advisors hurt trading performance. However, they help to reduce some of the behavioral biases retail investors are subject to, but this does not overcompensate the negative performance effects of the bad stock recommendations.