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Time-Varying Risk Premium in Large Cross-Sectional Equity Data Sets

Econometrica 2016 84(3), 985-1046 open access
We develop an econometric methodology to infer the path of risk premia from a large unbalanced panel of individual stock returns. We estimate the time-varying risk premia implied by conditional linear asset pricing models where the conditioning includes both instruments common to all assets and asset-specific instruments. The estimator uses simple weighted two-pass cross-sectional regressions, and we show its consistency and asymptotic normality under increasing cross-sectional and time series dimensions. We address consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance by hard thresholding, and testing for asset pricing restrictions induced by the no-arbitrage assumption. We derive the restrictions given by a continuum of assets in a multi-period economy under an approximate factor structure robust to asset repackaging. The empirical analysis on returns for about ten thousand U.S. stocks from July 1964 to December 2009 shows that risk premia are large and volatile in crisis periods. They exhibit large positive and negative strays from time-invariant estimates, follow the macroeconomic cycles, and do not match risk premia estimates on standard sets of portfolios. The asset pricing restrictions are rejected for a conditional four-factor model capturing market, size, value, and momentum effects.

Skill, Scale, and Value Creation in the Mutual Fund Industry

Journal of Finance 2022 77(1), 601-638 open access
We develop a flexible and bias‐adjusted approach to jointly examine skill, scalability, and value‐added across individual funds. We find that skill and scalability (i) vary substantially across funds, and (ii) are strongly related, as great investment ideas are difficult to scale up. The combination of skill and scalability produces a value‐added that (i) is positive for the majority of funds, and (ii) approaches its optimal level after an adjustment period (possibly due to investor learning). These results are consistent with theoretical models in which funds are skilled and able to extract economic rents from capital markets.

Is it alpha or beta? Decomposing hedge fund returns when models are misspecified

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 154, 103805 open access
We develop a novel approach to separate alpha and beta under model misspecification. It comes with formal tests to identify less misspecified models and sharpen the return decomposition of individual funds. Our hedge fund analysis reveals that: (i) prominent models are as misspecified as the CAPM, (ii) several factors (time-series momentum, variance, carry) capture alternative strategies and lower performance in all investment categories, (iii) fund heterogeneity in alpha and beta is large—an important result for fund selection and models of active management, (iv) performance is increasingly similar to mutual funds, (v) fund valuation is sensitive to investor sophistication.