Using the Duke Survey data on firms’ internal plans, we show that over 80% of Chief Financial Officer (CFO) forecasts align closely with simple heuristics taught in MBA textbooks. We introduce forecast coherence—internal consistency across forecasts of jointly determined variables—as a benchmark for evaluating these heuristics. Nearly half of CFOs issue forecasts closely aligned with incoherent heuristics. Such forecasts are associated with predictable reversals in forecast errors, lower firm performance, and underinvestment. We develop a parsimonious model illustrating how reliance on restricted forecasting heuristics can generate incoherence and resource misallocation within firms, consistent with our evidence

This article is the first study of long-run evolution of investor protection and corporate ownership in the United Kingdom over the twentieth century. Formal investor protection emerged only in the second half of the century. We assess the influence of investor protection on ownership by comparing cross-sections of firms at different times in the century and the evolution of firms incorporating at different stages of the century. Investor protection had little impact on dispersion of ownership: even in the absence of investor protection, rates of dispersion of ownership were high, associated primarily with mergers. Preliminary evidence suggests that ownership dispersion in the United Kingdom relied more on informal relations of trust than on formal investor protection.

This article reports a unique analysis of private engagements by an activist fund. It is based on data made available to us by Hermes, the fund manager owned by the British Telecom Pension Scheme, on engagements with management in companies targeted by its UK Focus Fund. In contrast with most previous studies of activism, we report that the fund executes shareholder activism predominantly through private interventions that would be unobservable in studies purely relying on public information. The fund substantially outperforms benchmarks and we estimate that abnormal returns are largely associated with engagements rather than stock picking.

This article reports a unique analysis of private engagements by an activist fund. It is based on data made available to us by Hermes, the fund manager owned by the British Telecom Pension Scheme, on engagements with management in companies targeted by its UK Focus Fund. In contrast with most previous studies of activism, we report that the fund executes shareholder activism predominantly through private interventions that would be unobservable