Both DC (developed country) tariffs and LDC (developing country) export taxes are "escalated" to protect local processors of primary commodities. The paper develops an analytical model of north-south commodity trade which is used to estimate the effects of reciprocal elimination of these trade barriers for eight commodities. It is estimated that processing would increase by 9 percent in the LDCs and decline by less than 1 percent in the DCs. The LDC export revenue for the eight-commodity sample would increase by 11 percent, or just over $1 billion (based on 1973 trade flows), which is considerably more than the estimated effect of the Generalized System of Preferences.

This study demonstrates a tractable method for analyzing schooling investment with risky incomes. Constant relative risk aversion is assumed, and borrowing in a rudimentary capital market is allowed. A linear, variance-components model on log (real income) is estimated. Only unexplained variation is treated as a source of risk. Illustrative empirical results indicate that students should take either 4 years of college or none at all, depending on time preference, loan availability, and degree of risk aversion. Estimate risk-adjusted rates of return to college exceed 10 percent for some parameter values. Risk adjustments for college rates are small but positive.

The New Jobs Tax Credit was one of the four programs in the 1977 economic stimulus package. This program, although viewed primarily as a countercyclical measure, may also alter the equilibrium unemployment rate, UN.' This paper presents our preliminary analysis of the Department of Labor survey, conducted by the Bureau of the Census, in which firms described their responses to this employment tax credit (ETC). To date, our results indicate the potential for a large employment effect. Ordinary least squares estimates suggest that firms which knew about the program increased employment 3 percent faster than other firms. A second analysis which uses multinomial logit techniques indicates that the ETC shifted the entire distribution of employment growth to the right: slowly growing firms increased employment to capture the credit. Since the firms which knew about the program, however, were not randomly drawn, our results may overstate the program's employment effect. Due to the nature of the survey data, we can only focus on direct employment effects.2 It is useful, however, to at least mention the other potential effects of the program. First, unlike Comprehensive Employment Training Act (CETA) programs which increase public employment, the ETC should increase employment in the private sector. Within the private sector, the rules of the current ETC program provide an additional stimulus to the growing industries and, to a lesser extent, to small establishments. Second, the long-run structural effects of this two-year program are probably small. A permanent ETC, however, may be able to lower UN of disadvantaged workers.

Earlier work on U.S. import demand suggest that structural change may have occurred sometime in the mid-1960s. Since this evidence was based upon a somewhat arbitrary splitting of the sample period, the dating of change is uncertain. In this paper we investigate the question of structural change for both U.S. imports and exports, using a procedure that lets the data determine if and when structural change may have occurred. We find weak evidence of structural change for imports in the mid- to late 1960s and much stronger evidence in 1972:1 and thereafter. There is no evidence of structural change for exports.