Knowledge that Transforms

This paper presents a Monte Carlo comparison of the small-sample performance of subsample ordinary least squares, the Heckman-Lee two-stage estimator, and the robust estimator of Lee. Each estimator is considered under bivariate normal, t, and chi-square error structures. The estimates indicate that the Heckman-Lee and Lee estimators do not provide an unequivocal mean square error improvement upon subsample ordinary least squares in small samples. While effectively controlling for selectivity bias, the two-stage estimators suffer a substantial loss of small-sample precision relative to subsample ordinary least squares. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

The rate of transition from unemployment to re-employment for a sample of displaced workers is estimated using a semiparametric specification which allows the effects of unemployment insurance benefits to vary over time. Three results which would be missed by more restrictive specifications demonstrate the value of this approach: (1) The effects of UI benefits decline and eventually disappear as the date of expiration approaches, (2) Expiration of UI benefits are an inadequate explanation of the spikes commonly observed in nonparametric sample hazard rates for re-employment, (3) UI benefits do not significantly affect the rate at which a displaced worker becomes re-employed in his or her previous industry, but reduce the rate for transitions to other industries. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

When land markets are incomplete, parcels can be scaled to make control compatible with use and to internalize externalities. The authors show that an arbitrage-proof equilibrium implies an increasing and strictly concave relationship between the value and size of land parcels. Undeveloped land sales in southern California strongly confirm the theoretical relationship. The authors find that zoning primarily restricts the conversion of land from agriculture to residential and industrial uses relative to the competitive equilibrium. The scale of land units is an effective private instrument for providing compatible land use even in the presence of strong zoning. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

This paper proposes criteria for classifying time-series forecasts of inflation as weakly, sufficiently, strongly, and strictly rational. Forecasts taken from the ASA-NBER surveys, some well-known one-step-ahead forecasting techniques, and a novel variable length autoregressive moving average model are tested against these criteria. None of the forecasts series meets the criteria for strict rationality nor, even, the less demanding criteria for strong rationality. While agents forecast as best they can, their forecasts are not likely to meet stringent rationality criteria suggested by econometricians. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

This paper reports an estimate of the frictional unemployment rate in U.S. manufacturing that is derived from a parametric, statistical method for estimating stochastic frontiers. The steady-state, perfect-foresight solution to an estimated employment growth frontier provides a locus of technically efficient (frictional) rates of unemployment. The mean frictional unemployment rate during the sample period is estimated to be 3.7 percent of the manufacturing labor force. This estimate conforms closely to an estimate of 3.5 percent that is derived from manufacturing-sector data presented by David M. Lilien (1980) for roughly the same time period. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

Wayne B. Gray, Carol Adaire Jones, Are Osha Health Inspections Effective? A Longitudinal Study in the Manufacturing Sector, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 73, No. 3 (Aug., 1991), pp. 504-508

This paper presents a technique of cost-function estimation, based on the theory of finite mixture distributions, which allows for the simultaneous existence of multiple technologies of production when the researcher does not know which observations correspond to which technologies. The finite mixture technique provides estimates of the proportions of firms using the various technologies, facilitates comparisons between technologies, and preserves the traditional interpretations of cost estimation. After describing the mixture procedure, the technique is illustrated on a large sample of savings and loan associations, and it is concluded that this industry exhibits multiple technologies of production. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

Michael D. Creel, John B. Loomis, Confidence Intervals for Welfare Measures with Application to a Problem of Truncated Counts, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 73, No. 2 (May, 1991), pp. 370-373

Thomas F. Cargill, Michael M. Hutchinson, Political Business Cycles with Endogenous Election Timing: Evidence from Japan, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 73, No. 4 (Nov., 1991), pp. 733-739

There is a large literature investigating the determinants of charitable giving, in particular, price and income elasticities. We find that many of the most often reported results from this literature rely on a model specification that is inappropriate when applied to recent Federal Tax File data. We develop a standard Tobit model with a Box-Cox transformation parameter that nests a number of other specifications. The Box-Cox model yields estimates of price elasticities and expected charitable contributions that differ from those obtained using the typical specification. Additionally, we find that the use of sample weights provides potentially important policy insights. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.