Knowledge that Transforms

Many urban growth controls attempt to check sprawl by restricting allowable new housing densities. However, land may be undeveloped to preserve its real-option value. Real options in land markets arise from uncertainty as to the optimum use of a site. By limiting allowable development choices, growth controls can narrow real options and potentially accelerate investment. This paper examines the effect of price volatility, a generator of option value, on the timing of development after the imposition of an Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) around Seattle. While the net effect of the UGB is to lower the likelihood of new housing outside the boundary by between 28% and 39%, price volatility is no longer a deterrent to development.

We develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households. Among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk, 10% of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive, and this increases to 15% for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line. We next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village, and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

This paper examines the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and employment of different skill groups using panel data on Finnish establishments for 1988–2001. Exploiting the availability of a rich set of preacquisition controls, we use various regression and propensity-score matching methods. The results indicate that foreign acquisition has a positive effect on wages. The magnitude of this effect increases with the level of schooling of the workers. The wage increase is not immediate, but occurs within one to three years from the acquisition. The results also indicate that the acquisition decreases the share of highly educated workers in the plant's employment.

Using U.S. state-level data we show that agglomeration externalities influence the level of foreign-invested capital in a location. Our empirical model allows the separation of agglomeration effects from the rate of capital stock adjustment, two forces that previous research has conflated. We estimate an agglomeration elasticity of investment of 0.11 to 0.15 with respect to same-source-country investment, lower than previous estimates. We also investigate the influence of state policies and find that although general investment incentives do not affect the location of FDI, targeted policies such as unitary taxation and state foreign offices influence investment.

This paper examines the impact of the birth rate on economic growth by using a panel data set of 28 provinces in China over twenty years. Because China's one-child policy applied only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to use the proportion of minorities in a province as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of the birth rate on economic growth. We find that the birth rate has a negative impact on economic growth. The finding not only supports the view of Malthus, but also suggests that China's birth control policy is indeed growth enhancing.

This paper documents the widely perceived but little investigated notion that teachers today are less qualified than they once were. Evidence of a marked decline in the quality of young women going into teaching between 1960 and 1990 is presented, using standardized test scores, undergraduate institution selectivity, and positive assortative mating characteristics as indicators of quality. In contrast, the quality of young women becoming professionals increased. The Roy model of self-selection highlights how occupational differences in the returns to skill determine teacher quality. Estimates suggest the significance of increasing professional opportunities for women in affecting the decline in teacher quality.

In this paper we consider a nonparametric regression model that admits a mix of continuous and discrete regressors, some of which may in fact be redundant (that is, irrelevant). We show that, asymptotically, a data-driven least squares cross-validation method can remove irrelevant regressors. Simulations reveal that this “automatic dimensionality reduction” feature is very effective in finite-sample settings.

This paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in Canadian retail gasoline markets. I find three distinct pricing patterns: cost-based pricing, sticky pricing, and sharp asymmetric retail price cycles that resemble the Edgeworth cycles of Maskin and Tirole (1988). I use a Markov-switching regression to estimate the prevalence of the regimes and the structural characteristics of the cycles themselves. I find cycles are more prevalent when there are more small firms and are accelerated and amplified with very many small firms. In markets with few small firms, sticky pricing dominates. The findings are consistent with the theory of Edgeworth cycles.

Social commentators have pointed to problems of workers who face “time stress”—an absence of sufficient time to accomplish all their tasks. An economic theory views time stress as reflecting how tightly the time constraint binds households. Time stress will be more prevalent in households with higher full earnings and whose members work longer in the market or on “required” homework. Evidence from Australia (2001), Germany (2002), the United States (2003), and Korea (1999) corroborates the theory. Adults in households with higher earnings perceive more time stress for the same amount of time spent in market work and household work. The importance of higher full earnings in generating time stress is not small, particularly in the United States—much is “yuppie kvetch.”

Of the ten million uninsured children in 1996, nearly half were eligible for public health insurance (Medicaid) but not enrolled. In response, policy efforts to reduce the uninsured have shifted from expanding Medicaid eligibility to increasing take-up among those eligible. However, little is known about the reasons poor families fail to enroll or the consequences. Using a unique data set I find that information and administrative costs are important barriers to enrollment, especially for Hispanics and Asians. In addition, enrolling children in Medicaid before they get sick promotes the use of preventative care, reduces the need for hospitalization, and improves health.