Knowledge that Transforms

Insurance fraud is now recognized as a significant resource-allocation problem in many markets. The object of this study is to verify how straight deductible contracts may affect the equilibrium level of falsification in automobile insurance. This type of contract is observed in many markets, even if it is not optimal under costly state falsification. A higher deductible may create incentives to fraud or cheat, particularly when the insured anticipates that the claim has a small probability of being audited. To verify this proposition, we estimate a loss equation for which one of the determinants is the amount of the deductible, using a data set of claims filed for damages following an automobile accident with twenty insurance companies in Quebec in 1992. Because we have access only to reported losses, a higher deductible also implies a lower probability of reporting small losses. To isolate the fraud effect related to the presence of a deductible in the contract, we jointly estimate a loss equation and a threshold equation. The threshold is the amount over which an insured decides to report a given loss. It can be interpreted as a personal deductible, and it is not observable. Our results indicate, among other things, that with an appropriate correction for selectivity the amount of the deductible is a significant determinant of the reported loss, at least when no other vehicle is involved in the accident; in other words, when the presence of witnesses is less likely.

Using confidential firm-level panel data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we examine how the bilateral trade flows of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) and their Canadian affiliates responded to U.S.-Canadian tariff reductions from 1983 to 1992. We find that Canadian affiliate sales to the United States are negatively correlated with Canadian tariffs, but U.S. parent sales to Canadian affiliates have little association with Canadian tariffs. These results contradict the notion that Canadian tariff reductions would lead to a ‘hollowing out’ of Canadian manufacturing. We also find substantial heterogeneity in MNC responses to tariff changes within narrowly defined manufacturing industries. Overall, bilateral trade liberalization is trade-creating, as U.S. MNCs integrated their North American production such that Canadian affiliates increased sales to the United States and reduced domestic sales.

Although there is a considerable literature on the role of market structure in banking markets, no attention has been given to the impact of the competitive discipline provided by credit unions on consumer credit rates offered by banks. After presenting a theoretical framework for understanding the impact credit unions should be expected to have, this article analyzes a pooled cross-sectional, time-series sample with roughly 1,000 observations on relatively small United States markets, with the focus on explaining bank rates for two types of consumer loans. Results confirm the previously observed role of market structure and suggest a significant role for credit unions in disciplining the exercise of market power by banks.

Increasing size of establishments and resulting concentration in U.S. industries may stem from various types of cost economies. In particular, scale economies arising from technological factors embodied in plant and equipment may be a driving force for such market structure changes. In this case, typical market power measures like Lerner indices can be misleading: if scale (cost) economies prevail, cost efficiencies rather than market deficiencies may actually underlie the observed patterns. In this study, I provide measures of scale economies and market power for the U.S. meat packing industry, whose increased consolidation and concentration have raised great concern in policy circles. The results suggest that this trend has been motivated by cost economies, but that little excess profitability exists, and on the margin the potential for taking further advantage of such economies has become minimal.

Reported expenditures for environmental protection are often cited as an assessment of the burden of current regulatory efforts. However, the potential for both incidental savings and uncounted costs means that the actual burden could be either higher or lower than these reported values.Using a production cost model that considers the possible interaction between environmental and non-environmental expenditures, we directly estimate the dollar-for-dollar incidental savings/uncounted costs arising from a one-dollar increase in reported environmental expenditures. Although recent literature supports the idea that reported expenditures probably understate the actual burden, we find no such evidence in the manufacturing sector based on a large panel of plant-level data. In one industry, we find statistically significant overstatement. In three others, we find no significant deviation in either direction.We conclude that, although cost estimates are not overstated on average, variation and uncertainty exist at the industry level, with some plants experiencing savings and others possibly facing uncounted burdens.

Based on a derivation of the asymptotic sampling distribution of the generalized entropy mobility measures, this paper provides a statistically rigorous analysis of income mobility in Germany and the United States using the panel data set PSID-SOEP equivalent data file. Several alternative measures of income aggregation, inequality measures, and groupings are considered to establish robustness. We find that, to a high degree of statistical confidence, post-government income mobility is much higher in Germany. Possible reasons for these findings are revealed through disaggregation of the samples by population subgroups.

Nonlinear regression with measurement error is important for estimation from microeconomic data. One approach to identification and estimation is a causal model, in which the unobserved true variable is predicted by observable variables. This paper details the estimation of such a model using simulated moments and a flexible disturbance distribution. An estimator of the asymptotic variance is given for parametric models. Also, a semiparametric consistency result is given. The value of the estimator is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo study and an application to estimating Engel Curves.

A wide range of empirical applications rely on linear approximations to dynamic Euler equations. Among the most notable of these is the large and growing literature on precautionary saving that examines how consumption growth and saving behavior are affected by uncertainty and prudence. Linear approximations to Euler equations imply a linear relationship between expected consumption growth and uncertainty in consumption growth, with a slope coefficient that is a function of the coefficient of relative prudence. This literature has produced puzzling results: estimates of the coefficient of relative prudence (and the coefficient of relative risk aversion) from linear regressions of consumption growth on uncertainty in consumption growth imply estimates of prudence and risk aversion that are unrealistically low. Using numerical solutions to a fairly standard intertemporal optimization problem, our results show that the actual relationship between expected consumption growth and uncertainty in consumption growth differs substantially from the relationship implied by a linear approximation. We also present Monte Carlo evidence that shows that the instrumental-variables methods that are commonly used to estimate the parameters correct some, but not all, of the approximation bias.

The directional output distance function (Chambers, Chung, & Färe, 1996) is used to construct a Malmquist-Luenberger index of total factor productivity growth for manufacturing when both good and bad outputs are jointly produced. The index is constructed using information on good and bad output quantities and input quantities, circumventing the problem of recovering shadow price information for the bad output needed for the Fisher or Tornqvist type of productivity indices. Accounting for toxic releases in manufacturing, productivity growth averages 1.4% an-nually during 1988–1994. The findings also suggest that the failure to account for toxic releases in manufacturing results in a significant under-statement of total factor productivity growth.

This paper reports the first effort to use data to evaluate how new information, acquired through exogenous health shocks, affects people's longevity expectations. We find that smokers react differently to health shocks than do those who quit smoking or never smoked. These differences, together with insights from qualitative research conducted along with the statistical analysis, suggest specific changes in the health warnings used to reduce smoking. Our specific focus is on how current smokers responded to health information in comparison to former smokers and nonsmokers. The three groups use significantly different updating rules to revise their assessments about longevity. The most significant finding of our study documents that smokers differ from persons who do not smoke in how information influences their personal longevity expectations. When smokers experience smoking-related health shocks, they interpret this information as reducing their chances of living to age 75 or more. Our estimated models imply smokers update their longevity expectations more dramatically than either former smokers or those who never smoked. Smokers are thus assigning a larger risk equivalent to these shocks. They do not react comparably to general health shocks, implying that specific information about smoking-related health events is most likely to cause them to update beliefs. It remains to be evaluated whether messages can be designed that focus on the link between smoking and health outcomes in ways that will have comparable effects on smokers' risk perceptions.