Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We study the effectiveness of nonexperimental strategies in adjusting for comparison group differences when using data from several programs, each implemented at a different location, to compare their effect if implemented at alternative locations. First, we adjust for individual characteristics differences simultaneously across all groups using unconfoundedness-based and conditional difference-in-difference methods for multiple treatments. Second, we adjust for differences in local economic conditions and stress their role after program participation. Our results show that it is critical to have sufficient overlap across locations in both dimensions and illustrate the difficulty of adjusting for local economic conditions that differ greatly across locations.

This paper provides an economic rationale for the practice of consanguineous marriages observed in parts of the developing world. In a model of incomplete marriage markets, dowries are viewed as ex ante transfers made from the bride's family to the groom's family when the promise of ex post gifts and bequests is not credible. Consanguineous unions join families between whom ex ante pledges are enforceable ex post. The model predicts a negative relationship between consanguinity and dowries and higher bequests in consanguineous unions. An empirical analysis based on data from Bangladesh delivers results consistent with the model.

Standard solution methods for linear stochastic models with rational expectations presuppose a time-invariant structure. Consequently, credible announcements that entail future changes of the structure cannot be handled by standard solution methods. This paper develops the solution for linear stochastic rational expectations models in the face of a finite sequence of anticipated structural changes. These events encompass anticipated changes to the structural parameters and also anticipated additive shocks. We apply the solution to some examples of practical relevance to monetary policy.

Using business survey data, we estimate an ordered probit model to explain the occurrence of producer price increases and decreases in the French manufacturing industry. Our results show that changes in intermediate input prices are the main driver of producer price changes. Changes in firms' labor costs, their production level, or the producer price index of their industry contribute less to the occurrence of price changes. Moreover, when they face a change in their costs, firms adjust their prices upward more often and more rapidly than they do it downward, especially when the shock is perceived as permanent.

Abstract Using unique data on mutual fund portfolios with different investment scopes, we study the extent of international diversification. Mutual funds invest in a surprisingly limited number of stocks—about 100. The number of holdings from a given region declines as the investment scope broadens. Moreover, unexploited gains exist from international diversification. Funds that invest globally could achieve better risk-adjusted returns by adding stocks held by more specialized funds within the same family. These findings are not driven by different sectoral allocations, lack of information or instruments, transaction costs, or different tail risks. Instead, organizational factors might play an important role.

Abstract Skill content varies enormously across industries and over time. This paper shows that import competition can explain a significant portion of the variation in various skill measures across manufacturing industries. Industries that face more intense import competition employ more nonroutine skill sets, including cognitive, interpersonal, and manual skills, and fewer cognitive routine skills. In addition, we find that the impact of import competition on skills is not driven by imports from low-wage countries or from China. A number of robustness checks also suggest that our results are unlikely to be driven by econometric problems.

We use econometric methods based on the propensity score to estimate the causal effect of HIV status on employment outcomes in South Africa. Relying on rich data from a national survey, which included HIV testing, we control for systematic differences between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals. We provide the first nationally representative estimates of the impact of HIV status on employment outcomes for southern Africa. Being HIV positive is associated with an increase of 6 to 7 percentage points in the likelihood of unemployment overall and 10 to 11 percentage points for those who are less educated. This disadvantage reinforces existing inequalities in South Africa.

This paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining U.S. macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s and their changes thereafter. In an otherwise conventional sticky-price model, standard aggregate demand logic is inverted at low enough asset market participation: interest rate increases become expansionary, and passive monetary policy ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare. This suggests that Federal Reserve policy in the pre-Volcker era was better than conventional wisdom implies. We provide empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis and study the relative merits of changes in structure and shocks for reproducing the conquest of the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation.

Using data on subprime mortgages from ten cities, I examine geographic variation in the effects of prepayment penalties, balloon loans, and reduced documentation on the probabilities of foreclosure and prepayment. Results indicate that across cities, reduced documentation is consistently related to higher probabilities of foreclosure, and prepayment penalties are consistently related to lower probabilities of prepayment. Prepayment penalties and balloon loans are more sporadically associated with foreclosures, and reduced documentation and balloon loans are more sporadically associated with prepayments. These results are robust to controls for several state antipredatory lending law provisions, whose effects are also tested.