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On the sources of private information in FX markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2011 35(5), 1250-1262 open access
We investigate the source of information advantage in inter-dealer FX trading using data on trades and counter-party identities. In liquid dollar exchange rates, information is concentrated among dealers that trade most frequently and specialize their activity in a particular rate. In cross-rates, traders that engage in triangular arbitrage are best informed. Better-informed traders are also located on larger trading floors. In cross-rates, the ability to forecast flows explains all of the advantage of the triangular arbitrageurs. In liquid dollar rates, specialist traders can forecast both order-flow and the component of exchange rate changes that is uncorrelated with flow.

The effect of capital inflows on the imports of capital goods in developing countries

Journal of Corporate Finance 2024 84, 102531 open access
This paper examines the relationship between capital inflows and import of capital goods to credit-constrained industries in developing countries. Using data of 11 industrial sectors in 57 countries for 2000–2020, we find that financially dependent industries import disproportionately more capital goods if they operate in countries that receive more foreign funds. A host of robustness tests, including instrumental variables estimation, confirm our main finding. We also document that: (i) the established nexus breaks down during the global financial crisis, (ii) the observed relationship is mainly due to the direct investment via equity, and (iii) host countries tend to import relatively more capital goods from G7 economies. Overall, our results suggest that one channel through which capital inflows affect economic growth is by alleviating firms' financial constraints, thereby enabling firms to acquire more advanced capital goods.

A Comment on Excess Asset Reversions and Shareholder Wealth

Journal of Finance 1990 45(5), 1709-1714
ABSTRACT This study re‐examines the earlier finding of Alderson and Chen (1986a) that financial markets do not consider excess pension assets in determining share prices and that significant increases in shareholder wealth occur when an overfunded pension plan is terminated. The results document that specific event‐time contamination (corporate restructuring announcements) provides the driving force for all the earlier findings.

Resource Allocation in a Non-convex Economy

Review of Economic Studies 1972 39(3), 303
Journal Article Resource Allocation in a Non-convex Economy Get access James C. Moore, James C. Moore Purdue University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Andrew B. Whinston, Andrew B. Whinston Purdue University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Joseph S. Wu Joseph S. Wu Purdue University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 39, Issue 3, July 1972, Pages 303–323, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296361 Published: 01 July 1972 Article history Received: 01 April 1971 Revision received: 01 November 1971 Published: 01 July 1972

Does macroprudential policy alleviate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the resilience of banks?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 147, 106419 open access
This paper examines the resilience of banks as perceived by market participants during the COVID-19 crisis. We analyse how bank stock returns during January-March 2020 relate to the pre-crisis activation of macroprudential policy across 52 countries in a cross-sectional dimension. We find that, overall, a tighter macroprudential policy stance is beneficial for bank systemic risk, as assessed by equity market investors. A robust finding is that a perceived decrease in bank risk stems primarily from the use of credit growth limits, reserve requirements, and dynamic provisioning. By contrast, a pre-crisis build-up of capital surcharges on systemically important financial institutions seems to lower bank stock returns. Alternative bank risk indicators suggest that the latter is likely to be driven by concerns about profits rather than the probability of default.

Opioid Use, Mortality Risks and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2026
Abstract In 2001 a large and sustained supply shock halted a heroin epidemic in Australia. We use drug offenses to identify individual opioid users and examine how the shock affected their mortality risks and criminal activity over the next eight years. Initially, gains from fewer overdoses are offset by drug substitution and more crime, including homicides. Most adverse effects dissipate over time, whereas persistent mortality reductions save the lives of around one in 48 individuals in our sample. Our results demonstrate that reducing the supply of illicit opioids can lead to meaningful longer-term improvements, even when the short-term effects are ambiguous.

Liquidity, Economic Activity, and Mortality

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2012 94(2), 400-418
We document a within-month mortality cycle where deaths decline before the first day of the month and spike after the first. This cycle is present across a wide variety of causes and demographic groups. A similar cycle exists for a range of economic activities, suggesting the mortality cycle may be due to short-term variation in levels of economic activity. We provide evidence that the within-month activity cycle is generated by liquidity. Our results suggest a causal pathway whereby liquidity problems reduce activity, which in turn reduces mortality. These relationships may help explain the procyclical nature of mortality.

Habit Formation and Intertemporal Substitution in Individual Food Consumption

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1996 78(2), 321
Individual food consumption data are used to examine three issues. First, is food consumption linked intertemporally at the individual level? Second, does the association between current and past consumption reflect habit or heterogeneity? Third, what do the estimates imply about the intertemporal elasticity of substitution? The authors find that habit matters, that controlling for heterogeneity reduces estimated habit effects, and that the product of the estimated intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the risk aversion parameter is less than one. These results all lead to rejection of time separable specifications of intertemporal consumption behavior. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.