Knowledge that Transforms

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Using the near universe of online job postings from 2007 to 2021, we construct a firm-level metric of labor market power. We find that firms with higher labor market power tend to have higher financial leverage. Our findings are not driven by product market competition or correlated labor market characteristics. The evidence is less pronounced among firms hiring in occupations with high labor mobility and skill transferability. To establish causality, we exploit the establishment of Amazon HQ2 in Crystal City as a shock to the labor market power of local firms and show consistent findings with our baseline results.

Exploiting an exogenous increase in public awareness of banks’ lending to the gun industry, this article documents significant deposit outflows from gun lenders. These outflows are stronger in Democratic-leaning markets and for Republican-leaning lenders. In contrast, anti-gun lenders experience limited and insignificant outflows, consistent with policy alignment with depositor values. Outflows tighten funding constraints, prompting gun lenders to reduce deposit spreads and branches in Democratic-leaning markets. While large gun lenders remain resilient, small gun lenders significantly reduce their CRA loan volumes. The findings highlight political value misalignment as a driver of depositor behavior and its real effects on bank operations.

We study trading among strategic traders who may incorrectly assess the degree of market crowdedness. These mistakes distort equilibrium strategies and prices. When traders underestimate market crowdedness, they target larger inventories and trade more aggressively, but their actual profits are lower than expected because they underestimate the amount of information already impounded in prices. Crowded markets are prone to abrupt crashes. The magnitude of price dislocations and the speed of recovery during fire-sale events can help infer traders’ beliefs about market crowdedness.

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.

We administer a theory-driven, lab-in-the-field experiment to study the disposition effect among financial professionals. Our novel design identifies, at the individual participant level, key behavioral drivers of the disposition effect: reference-dependent risk attitudes (“tastes”), second-order uncertainty attitudes (including “ambiguity”), and subjective likelihood assessments (“beliefs”). Among the 237 professionals in our sample, 34% exhibited the disposition effect, which seems to be primarily driven by non-Bayesian beliefs. Our experimental results suggest that, when faced with new information about their asset’s performance, financial professionals failed to update their beliefs sufficiently leading them to sell the asset that gained (lost) value more (less) readily.

This article documents adverse selection in Ginnie Mae issuers’ early buyout decisions. Conditional on default, we find a 1 percentage point increase in interest rate spread increases the probability of an early buyout by 7–9 percentage points. Issuers buy out higher interest rate spread loans because they generate greater economic gains when they reperform. We illustrate how issuers acquire private soft information that provides direct insight into the likelihood of reperformance. Although the soft information is ostensibly collected on behalf of investors during the delinquent loan servicing process, issuers can exploit the information in their early buyout decisions.

Earlier research finds correlation between sentiment and future economic growth, but disagrees on the channel that explains this result. We shed new light on this issue by exploiting cross-sectional variation in country size and market efficiency. We find that sentiment shocks in the largest advanced economies increase economic activity, but only temporarily and without affecting productivity. Conversely, sentiment shocks in smaller or less advanced economies predict prolonged economic growth and a corresponding increase in productivity. The results support the view that sentiment can create economic booms, although only in economies where sentiment and fundamentals are harder to disentangle.

We document a strong, negative relation between the curvature of stock price paths (i.e., price-path convexity) and future short-horizon returns at both the aggregate and firm levels. This relation obtains regardless of the cumulative return during the convexity estimation period. At the aggregate level, convexity is a better predictor of future returns than many commonly used predictors. At the firm level, this effect is not explained by known return predictors, microstructure frictions, or illiquidity. Using survey-based expectations of short-horizon returns, we show that the negative relation between convexity and future returns is driven in part by overextrapolation of past returns.

Firms with more competitive threats from the product market are less likely to commit violations and pay lower penalties. These findings are robust to alternative measures, specifications, and subsamples, as well as different attempts that mitigate endogeneity concerns. Further analyses reveal that the disciplining effect of competition is more pronounced when managers have greater incentives to shirk and when internal governance is weaker, and that violations are associated with poor product market performance only in the presence of competitive pressure. Firms under competitive pressure are more likely to adopt ESG-related incentives in executive compensation contracts and exhibit better worker safety practices. Overall, our evidence suggests that product market threats reduce managerial slack in combating misconduct by increasing the expected damage of violations.