Knowledge that Transforms

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of input price shocks on economic growth, with a focus on United Kingdom manufacturing in the 1970s. The theoretical model predicts a discrete decline in output and productivity after an input price rise, and a longer-run slowdown in productivity growth, real wage growth, and capital accumulation. These features characterize the United Kingdom and most other OECD economies after 1973. The empirical results confirm the important role of input prices in recent U.K. adjustment, but also point to an important role for other supply and demand factors.

This paper considers the use of imperfect information for risk sharing and incentive purposes when perfect observation of actions and outcomes is impossible, making complete contracting infeasible. The incentive-insurance problem is defined to consist of two parts: the choice of an information system and the design of a sharing rule based on the information system. A generalized agency model is formulated to analyse this problem. The agency models of Ross (1973a, b), Wilson (1968), Stiglitz (1974), Mirrlees (1976), Harris and Raviv (1979), Holmström (1979) a.o. appear as special cases of the generalized model. The analysis focuses on the value of information in the agency information problem. The set of information systems which are valuable—i.e. improve risk sharing and incentives in a Pareto sense—is characterized. A problem-independent ranking of information systems for the agency information problem is then characterized under the assumption that the agent's preferences are additive in money and actions. The ranking may be viewed as a generalization of Blackwell's ranking of information systems for decision problems, to this particular game. When the agent's risk preferences depend on his choice of action, on the other hand, it is shown that the Blackwell ranking may be invalid. Randomized incentive schemes are shown to be efficient when the incentive effect of risk is positive and sufficiently large relative to the absolute risk aversion of the partners.

The efficient estimation of econometric models with rational expectations by the substitution method usually entails the use of a non-linear simultaneous equations estimator and hence is not very attractive computationally. It is shown that for a wide class of problems efficient estimates can also be obtained with standard estimation methods if instead an errors in variables approach is used. For many other problems, although not providing fully efficient estimates because rationality is not imposed, the errors in variables method will still have a strong appeal because otherwise it uses all of the structural information in the model; unlike the substitution method, when an incomplete information set is used, it guarantees consistent estimates; and it is easy to compute.

This study proposes and implements a method of labour supply estimation which is appropriate when the sample contains unemployed and underemployed workers. The estimation method consists of excluding unemployed and underemployed workers from the sample and then using (to avoid selection bias) an extension of Heckman's approach to the case where two correlated selection rules generate the sample. Hausman's specification test is then used to determine whether ignoring constrained workers has led to biases in traditional labour supply estimates, and the empirical results suggest that previous estimates of several important parameters are biased. Since the biases go in the direction that would be predicted by the hypothesis that the unemployed and underemployed are constrained, the results support this hypothesis.

This paper analyses trade in manuf acutured goods that are produced via a vertical production structure with many stages, where some value is added at each to an intermediate product to yield a good-in-process ready for the next stage. We consider the stage at which a good is traded to be an economically endogenous variable, with comparative advantage determining the pattern of production specialization by stages across countries. We study how endowment changes and policy shifts move the margin of comparative advantage, which thus provides a channel for resource allocation adjustment that is additional to the usual ones of factor substitution and changes in the quantity of output.

It is well known that a domestic resource discovery gives rise to wealth effects that cause a squeeze of the tradeable good sector of an open economy. The decline of the manufacturing sector following an energy discovery has been termed the "Dutch disease," and has been investigated in many recent studies. Our model extends the principally static analyses to date by allowing for: (1) short-run capital specificity and long-run capital mobility; (2) international capital flows; and (3) far-sighted intertemporal optimizing behavior by households and firms. The model is solved by numerical simulation.

This paper establishes that when there is not a complete set of markets but more than one commodity the stock market equilibrium will not in general be a constrained Pareto optimum. The economy will lack both the property of exchange and production efficiency. Necessary conditions which must be satisfied if the economy is to be a constrained Pareto optimum for all technologies are derived; if all individuals have identical, homothetic indifference maps, then either there must be unitary price elasticities (so there is no effective risk) or all individuals must have the same degree of risk aversion (so there is no trade on the stock market).

Lancaster and Nickell (1980) have argued that in the proportional hazard model the effects of time dependence (true duration dependence) and unobserved sample heterogeneity (spurious duration dependence) cannot be distinguished. We show that both effects can be distinguished if the model allows for observed explanatory variables in the hazard. We also discuss the application of our result to practical situations.

This article addresses the issue of specification of econometric selectivity models and suggests approaches for the correction of selectivity bias. Our approaches provide ways to specify selectivity models without the assumption of multinormal distribution. Some flexible function forms for the correction of selectivity bias in the regression equation are derived. All the models considered can be estimated by simple consistent two stage methods. Our approaches provide simple procedures for the testing of selectivity bias without imposing restrictive distributional assumptions and also tests for the normality assumption.

The literature on inequality measurement has been largely concerned with single-dimensioned indicators. This paper explores some of the issues which arise when there are several dimensions to inequality, and these are not readily reduced to a single index, concentrating particularly on the two-dimensioned case. We make use of results on multi-variate stochastic dominance in portfolio theory, extending these and applying them to the measurement of inequality. The use of the dominance conditions is illustrated by an application to the international distribution of income and life expectancy.