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Financial shocks to lenders and the composition of financial covenants

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2022 73(1), 101426
We provide evidence that financial shocks to lenders influence the composition of financial covenants in debt contracts. Using two distinct measures of lender-specific shocks—defaults in a lender's corporate loan portfolio that occur outside the borrower's region and industry, and non-corporate loan delinquencies—we show that lenders respond to financial shocks by increasing the number and strictness of performance-based but not of capital-based covenants in debt contracts. We examine two possible channels for this result. We find evidence consistent with lenders using stricter control rights because of concerns about capital depletion (a capital channel) and because of new information about lenders' own screening ability (a learning channel). Our results indicate that lender preferences influence how accounting information is used in debt contracts.

Agri-food Value Chain Revolutions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Journal of Economic Literature 2022 60(4), 1316-1377
Agri-food value chains (AVCs) intermediate the flow of products between largely rural farmers, fisherfolk, or herders and increasingly urban consumers. The theoretical models that historically structured research on the economic development process assumed away AVC functions, however, and AVC firms and workers were necessarily omitted from the household data that generated most empirical findings in the agricultural and development economics literatures. As a result, the discipline has somewhat overlooked the rapid growth and structural change in AVCs over the past few decades that turned AVCs into major employers and sources of value addition, as well as key loci for technology transfer and foreign investment. This paper offers an integrated, structured, empirical narrative of how and why AVC revolutions occur in developing countries, the impacts of those changes, and the abundant economic research opportunities these structural changes afford economists. (JEL L14, L81, O13, O33, Q12, Q13, Q17)

Blockholder board representation and debt contracting

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 142, 106546
We examine the impact of blockholder board representation on a borrower's bank loan contract terms and find it is associated with lower spreads and fewer negative covenants. When examining the potential channels behind the relationship, we find that blockholder-directors who take dedicated monitoring roles, as opposed to the short-term or confrontational positions often associated with activist shareholders, drive the overall relationship. The findings, which are robust to alternative model specifications and explanations, suggest that blockholder-directors can serve as substitute monitors to debtholders when their incentives are aligned. The results also highlight the heterogeneity among blockholders who actively influence the management process.

Benchmark Discrepancies and Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2022 57(2), 543-571
We introduce a new holdings-based procedure to identify whether a mutual fund has a benchmark discrepancy, which we define as a benchmark other than the prospectus benchmark best matching a fund’s investment strategy. We find that funds with a benchmark discrepancy tend to be riskier than their prospectus benchmarks indicate. As a result, the funds on average outperform their prospectus benchmarks, before further risk adjustments, despite underperforming the benchmarks that best match their portfolios.

Count (and count-like) data in finance

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 146(2), 529-551
This paper assesses different econometric approaches to working with count-based outcome variables and other outcomes with similar distributions, which are increasingly common in corporate finance applications. We demonstrate that the common practice of estimating linear regressions of the log of 1 plus the outcome produces estimates with no natural interpretation that can have the wrong sign in expectation. In contrast, a simple fixed-effects Poisson model produces consistent and reasonably efficient estimates under more general conditions than commonly assumed. We also show through replication of existing papers that economic conclusions can be highly sensitive to the regression model employed.

Auditing Non‐GAAP Measures: Signaling More Than Intended*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2022 39(1), 577-606
ABSTRACT Many companies regularly disclose non‐GAAP performance measures to communicate firm‐specific information that does not fit within the mold of GAAP reporting. However, these non‐GAAP measures may have low information content or even be misleading to investors. Thus, the question arises of whether auditors should play a larger role in the reporting of non‐GAAP measures, which currently are not audited. We run an experiment to provide ex ante evidence on the effect of auditing non‐GAAP measures. Specifically, we present investor‐participants with a non‐GAAP measure that should be used when making investment judgments (more informative) or should not be used when making investment judgments (less informative) and is either audited or is not audited. As predicted, we find that, when participants view a non‐GAAP measure that is more informative, they appropriately use the non‐GAAP measure in their investment‐related judgments, regardless of whether the measure is audited. However, also as predicted, we find that, while participants appropriately do not use a less informative non‐GAAP measure when it is not audited, participants inappropriately do use the less informative non‐GAAP measure in their investment‐related judgments when it is audited. Mediation results provide evidence consistent with audits affecting investors' reliance on non‐GAAP measures. Specifically, our results are consistent with audits of non‐GAAP measures signaling more than is intended, evidenced by investors perceiving an audited non‐GAAP measure as being useful in their investment decisions when the measure is less informative to them. Our findings suggest that regulators should exercise caution when it comes to prescribing assurance over non‐GAAP measures.

Robust Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals

Econometrica 2022 90(6), 2567-2602 open access
We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that assume a normal distribution for the means (Morris (1983b)) may substantially undercover when this assumption is violated. In contrast, our EBCIs control coverage regardless of the means distribution, while remaining close in length to the parametric EBCIs when the means are indeed Gaussian. If the means are treated as fixed, our EBCIs have an average coverage guarantee: the coverage probability is at least 1 − α on average across the n EBCIs for each of the means. Our empirical application considers the effects of U.S. neighborhoods on intergenerational mobility.

Partisan residential sorting on climate change risk

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 146(3), 989-1015
Is climate change partisanship reflected in residential decisions? Comparing individual properties in the same zip code with similar elevation and proximity to the coast, houses exposed to sea level rise (SLR) are increasingly more likely to be owned by Republicans and less likely to be owned by Democrats. We find a partisan residency gap for even moderately SLR exposed properties of more than 5 percentage points, which has more than doubled over the past six years. Findings are unchanged controlling flexibly for other individual demographics and a variety of granular property characteristics, including the value of the home. Residential sorting manifests among owners regardless of occupancy, but not among renters, and is driven by long-run SLR exposure but not current flood risk. Anticipatory sorting on climate change suggests that households that are most likely to vote against climate friendly policies and least likely to adapt may ultimately bear the burden of climate change.

The Gender Gap in Self-Promotion

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2022 137(3), 1345-1381 open access
We run a series of experiments involving over 4,000 online participants and over 10,000 school-aged youth. When individuals are asked to subjectively describe their performance on a male-typed task relating to math and science, we find a large gender gap in self-evaluations. This gap arises when self-evaluations are provided to potential employers, and thus measure self-promotion, and when self-evaluations are not driven by incentives to promote. The gender gap in self-evaluations proves to be persistent and arises as early as the sixth grade. No gender gap arises if individuals are asked about their performance on a more female-typed task.