We propose a latent-variables approach to recover extrapolative beliefs from asset prices. We estimate a present-value model of the price–dividend ratio of the market that embeds both return extrapolation and cash-flow extrapolation, alongside discount rates and rational expectations of dividend growth. This approach allows us to measure extrapolation bias without having to rely on survey data, and it inherently guarantees that the researcher focuses on a set of beliefs that matter for price formation. We show that extrapolative beliefs extracted from prices are highly correlated with surveys and that survey-based and price-based extrapolative beliefs share similar predictive properties for future returns, with the former improving upon the latter.

ABSTRACT In the presence of litigation-facing suppliers, the supply chain relationship is at risk. Suppliers with principal customers (dependent suppliers) have a higher concentration of sales to customers, and they are more at risk relative to suppliers without principal customers (non-dependent suppliers). As a result, we predict and find that litigation disclosure patterns differ for the two supplier types: dependent suppliers are more likely to delay bad news and accelerate good news related to litigation outcomes, compared to non-dependent suppliers. Such strategic disclosure patterns in our end-game setting are opposite to those documented in the existing supply chain literature for the repeated-game setting (for example, Hui, Klasa, and Yeung 2012). JEL Classifications: M41; M48; K22.

ABSTRACT Prior research shows that financial reporting quality (FRQ) is positively related to investment efficiency for large U.S. publicly traded companies. We examine the role of FRQ in private firms from emerging markets, a setting in which extant research suggests that FRQ would be less conducive to the mitigation of investment inefficiencies. Earlier studies show that private firms have lower FRQ, presumably because of lower market demand for public information. Prior research also shows that FRQ is lower in countries with low investor protection, bank-oriented financial systems, and stronger conformity between tax and financial reporting rules. Using firm-level data from the World Bank, our empirical evidence suggests that FRQ positively affects investment efficiency. We further find that the relation between FRQ and investment efficiency is increasing in bank financing and decreasing in incentives to minimize earnings for tax purposes. Such a connection between tax-minimization incentives and the informational role of earnings has often been asserted in the literature. We provide explicit evidence in this regard.

ABSTRACT This study examines whether and how voluntary news disclosure made by private firms affects investment sensitivities of public peer firms. Analyzing data from U.S. public firms from 1996 to 2018, we discover that public firms’ investment sensitivities intensify in industries with active private firm disclosures; a one standard deviation increase in private firm news disclosure raises public firms’ investment sensitivities by 14.5–17.6 percent. To mitigate endogeneity, we employ instrumental-variable methods, leveraging the staggered implementation of prudent investor rules and enforceability of noncompete agreements. Our results show that these effects are magnified in industries marked by the higher expected industry return volatility and less local newspaper coverage. We find that news from private firms significantly enhances public firms’ investment sensitivities, regardless of its sentiment. This research highlights the crucial role of private firm disclosures in influencing public firms’ investment decisions, enhancing our understanding of information spillovers in corporate disclosure. JEL Classifications: D80; G31; G32; M41.