This paper investigates whether the design of the banking supervisory architecture impacts sovereign risk. Exploiting the implementation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) in Europe, we provide evidence that sovereign risk – measured by sovereign ratings – is lower after the largest banks shift from national to supranational supervision. The impact of SSM implementation is shaped by the characteristics of the banking sector and the country’s institutional setting. Using specific bank-level data, we also find that increased bank resilience (banking stability) and reduced volatility of bank credit (credit stability) in the economy underlie the relationship between banking supervision and sovereign risk. The results hold when considering CDS spreads as an alternative measure of sovereign risk and after conducting several robustness tests.

This article explores the influence of single-child CEOs on corporate innovation and culture within the context of China’s one-child policy. Utilizing multiple identification strategies, we find that firms led by single-child CEOs invest significantly less in innovation and generate fewer and lower-impact patents. Examining the underlying economic mechanisms, we find that these CEOs foster a corporate culture that discourages trust and collaboration, leading to increased inventor departures. Additionally, firms under their leadership exhibit lower idiosyncratic risk, aligning with the typically cautious behavior of only children. Our analysis demonstrates that these outcomes are primarily driven by behavioral traits associated with being an only child, including self-centeredness, reduced team orientation, and heightened risk aversion. Overall, the study sheds light on how the singular upbringing of single-child CEOs shapes corporate behavior and performance, revealing the broader, enduring economic consequences of national population policies.

We develop a test for instrument strength based on the bias of two-stage least squares (2SLS) that (1) generalizes Stock and Yogo’s and Sanderson and Windmeijer’s tests to be robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, and (2) extends Montiel Olea and Pflueger’s robust test for models with a single endogenous regressor to multiple endogenous regressors. Our test can be based either on an absolute bias criterion or on the 2SLS bias relative to a worst-case benchmark. We also develop extensions to test whether weak instruments cause bias in individual 2SLS coefficients. In simulations, our test controls size and is powerful, and we provide efficient code packages for its practical implementation. We demonstrate our testing procedures in the context of the estimation of state-dependent fiscal multipliers, following recent leading estimates.

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a novel computational methodology for representing the behavior of individuals in order to study social phenomena. Its use is rapidly growing in many fields. We review ABM in economics and finance and highlight how it can be used to relax conventional assumptions in standard economic models. ABM has enriched our understanding of markets, industrial organization, labor, macro, development, public policy, and environmental economics. In financial markets, substantial accomplishments include understanding clustered volatility, market impact, systemic risk, and housing markets. We present a vision for how ABMs might be used in the future to build more realistic models of the economy and review some of hurdles that must be overcome to achieve this.

We use unique disclosures in the insurance industry to examine whether client-engaged specialists (i.e., external actuaries) affect opportunism within the claim loss reserve. Using a fixed-effects approach, we find that external actuaries significantly affect the opportunism in the claim loss reserve, approaching half the effect of the auditor. With respect to actuary characteristics, we find a positive (negative) association between actuary permissiveness (actuary size) and opportunism in the claim loss reserve. In additional analyses, we find that the relation between actuary permissiveness and claim loss reserve opportunism is stronger when insurers have incentives to opportunistically manage the claim loss reserve. This relation continues to persist in the presence of high-quality auditors. Overall, we provide evidence suggesting that client-engaged external actuaries can be used to support opportunistic claim loss reserve estimates.

We study the impact of inside debt holdings on the likelihood of product market recalls. Consistent with inside debt better aligning incentives, we find it is negatively associated with subsequent recalls. This relation is pronounced for industries where managers have greater control over the supply chain and when examining severe recalls. Our results hold irrespective of the firm's financial constraints or cash flow risk. Inside debt has the greatest influence on older and longer tenured executives, indicating that managerial risk aversion plays an important role. Overall, our results indicate that compensation policies can have a positive effect by decreasing the likelihood of costly recalls.

This paper investigates the role of common institutional blockholders (CIBs) in promoting strategic alliances and facilitating the transfer of human capital between alliance partner firms. We find that firms are more likely to form strategic alliances (including research and development (R&D), licensing, manufacturing, and marketing alliances) when they share CIBs with a larger proportion of their industry peers. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit the exogenous shocks to CIB ownership induced by annual Russell 1000/2000 index reconstitutions. Our firm-pair-level analysis indicates that two firms are more likely to form alliances when they share a CIB. Additionally, we show that R&D alliance partner firms connected through CIBs exhibit greater across-partner redeployment of R&D-related human capital than partner firms without CIB connections. Overall, our findings underscore the significance of common institutional blockholder ownership in reducing the distrust that hinders strategic alliance formation and in realizing the economic benefits of such alliances.

Dividends are clustered in increments of 5, such as 25, 50, and 75. Firms that gravitate towards these ‘prominent’ amounts have lower operating performance and lower annual five-factor alphas of 77 b.p. Consistent with agency frictions that lead to lazy decisions, clustering effects are stronger for entrenched firms, with more market power, and less shareholder activism. Dividend increases also cluster more than cuts, consistent with saliency bias. In a counterfactual exercise, we find no similar patterns in a sample of ADRs. Our results complement a number of recent studies showing the economic importance of simple decision heuristics.