In this study we specify a simple earnings model, present managerial discretion hypotheses from existing literature, and assume efficient markets in order to evaluate five discretionary-accrual models. The five discretionary accrual models are the same as those evaluated in Dechow, Sloan, and Sweeney [1995]. The models are Healy [1985]; DeAngelo [1986]; Jones [1991]; Jones as modified in Dechow, Sloan, and Sweeney [1995]; and the industry model proposed by Dechow and Sloan [1991]. We specify three managerial discretion hypotheses. First, under the performance measure hypothesis, discretionary accruals help managers produce a reliable and more timely measure of firm performance (i.e., earnings) than using nondiscretionary accruals alone. Second, the opportunistic accrual management hypothesis is that discretionary accruals are employed to hide poor performance or postpone a portion of unusually good current earnings to future years. Finally, discretionary accruals are noise in earnings. This is the noise hypothesis. Our contribution is to make the joint hypotheses explicit and generate explicit predictions about the relative variability of earnings components,

We study industry-level patterns in takeover and restructuring activity during the 1982–1989 period. Across 51 industries, we find significant differences in both the rate and time-series clustering of these activities. The interindustry patterns in the rate of takeovers and restructurings are directly related to the economic shocks borne by the sample industries. These results support the argument that much of the takeover activity during the 1980s was driven by broad fundamental factors and have general implications for the stock price spillover effects of takeover announcements, corporate performance following takeovers, and the timing of takeover waves.

We find that the determinants of the cross-section of expected stock returns are stable in their identity and influence from period to period and from country to country. Out-of-sample predictions of expected return are strongly and consistently accurate. Two findings distinguish this paper from others in the contemporary literature: First, stocks with higher expected and realized rates of return are unambiguously lower in risk than stocks with lower returns. Second, the important determinants of expected stock returns are strikingly common to the major equity markets of the world. Overall, the results seem to reveal a major failure in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

We use unique data to analyze employer tax compliance with Unemployment Insurance (UI) provisions. The data indicate that employers may have underreported $728 million of UI taxes nationally in 1987 alone. To formally examine this noncompliance, a theoretical model of payroll tax evasion is developed showing that increasing payroll tax rates, among other things, likely increases noncompliance by risk-neutral firms. This prediction is empirically verified. The finding that UI tax evasion is systematically related to various firm characteristics suggests that UI audits may be effectively targeted by statistical profiles derived from our model, thereby improving compliance.

Abstract. This study establishes and tests, within the framework of a noisy rational expectations equilibrium model, the existence of a formal linear relationship between security prices, the average (consensus) and the dispersion of agents' expectations. Variations in the average and in the dispersion of agents' expectations, measured by the earnings forecasts produced by financial analysts, which are gathered and made available by The Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S) , have respectively a positive and negative effect on security prices. The difficulties raised by this estimation, as well as the institutional dimensions of the financial analysis industry are examined. The main results are the following: (1) the most important changes in consensus (in absolute value) correspond to the most important changes in dispersion in the analysts' forecasts, (2) the changes in the consensus and the dispersion of forecasts are respectively positively and negatively linked to Canadian security returns, but given the delay between the production and the public availability of the forecasts, an important part of the price adjustment occurs before the disclosure of forecast changes, (3) the effect on security returns of variations in the consensus dominates the effect of variations in the forecasts' dispersion. Thus, it seems that the impact of information arrival on security prices does not only depend on the direction and the magnitude of the expectations' average revision, but also depends on the direction and the magnitude of the change in the expectations' dispersion.

Résumé. Cette étude établit et teste, dans un cadre d'équilibre d'anticipations rationnelles bruité, l'existence d'une relation linéaire formelle entre le prix des titres, la moyenne (le consensus) et la dispersion des anticipations des agents. Les variations de la moyenne et de la dispersion des anticipations des agents, mesurées par les prévisions de bénéfices réalisées par les analystes financiers transmises par I/B/E/S , ont respectivement un effet positif et négatif sur le prix des titres. Les difficultés soulevées par cette estimation, ainsi que les dimensions institutionnelles de l'industrie de l'analyse financière sont examinées. Les principaux résultats sont les suivants: 1) les variations les plus importantes du consensus (en valeur absolue) correspondent aux variations les plus importantes (en valeur absolue) de la dispersion des prévisions d'analystes, 2) les changements dans le consensus et la dispersion des prévisions sont respectivement liés positivement et négativement aux rendements des actions canadiennes mais en raison du décalage entre la réalisation et la diffusion des prévisions, une part importante de l'ajustement de prix a lieu avant la diffusion publique des changements dans les prévisions, 3) l'effet des variations du consensus sur le rendement des titres domine l'effet des variations de la dispersion des prévisions. Il semble donc que l'impact de l'arrivée d'information sur le prix des titres ne dépende pas uniquement du sens et de l'ampleur de la révision moyenne des anticipations, mais aussi du sens et de l'ampleur du changement dans la dispersion des anticipations.

We observe significant post-split excess returns of 7.93 percent in the first year and 12.15 percent in the first three years for a sample of 1,275 two-for-one stock splits. These excess returns follow an announcement return of 3.38 percent, indicating that the market underreacts to split announcements. The evidence suggests that splits realign prices to a lower trading range, but managers self-select by conditioning the decision to split on expected future performance. Presplit runup and post-split excess returns are inversely related, indi? cating that our results are not caused by momentum.

Linear models with error components are widely used to analyse panel data. Some applications of these models require knowledge of the probability densities of the error components. Existing methods handle this requirement by assuming that the densities belong to known parametric families of distributions (typically the normal distribution). This paper shows how to carry out nonparametric estimation of the densities of the error components, thereby avoiding the assumption that the densities belong to known parametric families. The nonparametric estimators are applied to an earnings model using data from the Current Population Survey. The model's transitory error component is not normally distributed. Use of the nonparametric density estimators yields estimates of the probability that individuals with low earnings will become high earners in the future that are much lower than the estimates obtained under the assumption of normally distributed error components.