The proportional hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity gives the hazard function of a random variable conditional on covariates and a second random variable representing unobserved heterogeneity. This paper shows how to estimate the baseline hazard function and the distribution of the unobserved heterogeneity nonparametrically. The baseline hazard function and heterogeneity distribution are assumed to satisfy smoothness conditions but are not assumed to belong to known, finite-dimensional, parametric families. Existing estimators assume that the baseline hazard function or heterogeneity distribution belongs to a known parametric family. Thus, the estimators presented here are more general than existing ones.

These remarks discuss why the “cluster” of financial services and local banking markets are still relevant for antitrust analysis in banking. A key portion of the Federal Reserve’s Order approving the NationsBank–Barnett merger is interpreted, and the extent to which antitrust is a practical constraint on the development of a nationwide banking structure is commented upon.

[Brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommend companies that their firms have recently taken public. We show that stocks that under-writer analysts recommend perform more poorly than "buy" recommendations by unaffiliated brokers prior to, at the time of, and subsequent to the recommendation date. We conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analysts show significant evidence of bias. We show also that the market does not recognize the full extent of this bias. The results suggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the different functions that investment bankers perform.]

This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on the investment decisions of a sample of Italian manufacturing firms, using information on the subjective probability distribution of future demand for firms' products according to the entrepreneurs. The results support the view that uncertainty weakens the response of investment to demand thus slowing down capital accumulation. Consistent with the predictions of the theory, there is considerable heterogeneity in the effect of uncertainty on investment: it is stronger for firms that cannot easily reverse investment decisions and for those with substantial market power. We show that the negative effect of uncertainty on investment cannot be explained by uncertainty proxying for liquidity constraints.

The author proposes modeling boundedly rational agents as agents who are not logically omniscient, that is, who do not know all logical or mathematical implications of what they know. He shows how a subjective state space can be derived as part of a subjective expected utility representation of the agent's preferences. The representation exists under very weak conditions. The representation uses the familiar language of probability, utility, and states of the world in the hope that this makes this model of bounded rationality easier to use in applications. Copyright 1999 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We show in a simple model that such confirmatory bias induces overconfidence: given any probabilistic assessment by an agent that one of two hypotheses is true, the appropriate beliefs would deem it less likely to be true. Indeed, the hypothesis that the agent believes in may be more likely to be wrong than right. We also show that the agent may come to believe with near certainty in a false hypothesis despite receiving an infinite amount of information.

This paper estimates the magnitude of tax costs and their impact on the decision to divest assets via a taxable sale rather than a tax-free spin-off. We find that the tax costs are substantial, averaging 8% of market value of the divested assets, and that cross-sectional variation in tax costs has a large impact on managers’ choice of divestiture method. Our results are consistent with two explanations. First, managers are willing to incur avoidable tax costs to gain earnings and cash flow benefits. Second, managers choose taxable sales because the acquisition premia on the sales exceed the avoidable tax costs.

Abstract The objective of this study is to investigate the role, if any, that management discussion and analysis (MD&A) plays in a firm's disclosure package. First, we present evidence regarding the usefulness of MD&A. Our evidence is uniformly supportive of the view that MD&A is a source of new and useful information and indicates that MD&A is used for financial analysis purposes by at least one significant user group, sell‐side analysts, who are members of the Toronto Society of Financial Analysts. We then provide evidence on disclosure quality. The results reveal that, overall, MD&A disclosure quality varies with disclosure stimuli similar to those found to influence disclosure choice in other disclosure channels. However, a more refined analysis of the MD&A subcomponents reveals that different factors influence disclosure quality for those subcomponents. Taken together, our results are consistent with the notion that MD&A is a part of a firm's overall disclosure package.

If economic growth relies upon the extent-of-the-market, then openness will decrease the connection between initial income and later growth. Alternatively, learning-by-doing models suggest that wealth will be more positively correlated with growth in open economies, because trade causes advanced economies to specialize in products with more opportunities for learning. We examine twentieth century less developed countries and nineteenth century U. S. states. In both data sets, there is a much stronger correlation between growth and initial wealth among closed economies. These findings support the importance of the extent-of-the-market, and aggregate demand in fostering growth.

This paper presents an approximate analytical solution to the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely lived investor with Epstein-Zin-Weil utility who faces a constant riskless interest rate and a time-varying equity premium. When the model is calibrated to U. S. stock market data, it implies that intertemporal hedging motives greatly increase, and may even double, the average demand for stocks by investors whose risk-aversion coefficients exceed one. The optimal portfolio policy also involves timing the stock market. Failure to time or to hedge can cause large welfare losses relative to the optimal policy.