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Which Firms Follow the Market? An Analysis of Corporate Investment Decisions

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(5), 1941-1980
[We test whether stock market mispricing or private investor information in stock prices affects corporate investment. We develop an econometric methodology that disentangles stock-price movements that are relevant for investment from those that are not. We combine this decomposition with proxies for private information and mispricing to devise unbiased tests for the effects of mispricing and information on investment. We depart from much of the literature by finding that stock market mispricing does not affect investment, especially that of large firms and firms subject to mispricing. In contrast, we confirm previous evidence that managers incorporate private investor information when making investment decisions.]

Price Discovery and Dissemination of Private Information by Loan Syndicate Participants

Journal of Accounting Research 2010 48(5), 921-972 open access
ABSTRACT We delineate key channels through which flows of confidential information to loan syndicate participants impact the dynamics of information arrival in prices. We isolate the timing of private information flows by estimating the speed of price discovery over quarterly earnings cycles in both secondary syndicated loan and equity markets. We identify borrowers disseminating private information to lenders relatively early in the cycle with firms exhibiting relatively early price discovery in the secondary loan market, documenting that price discovery is faster for loans subject to financial covenants, particularly earnings‐based covenants; for borrowers who experience covenant violations; for borrowers with high credit risk; and for loans syndicated by relationship‐based lenders or highly reputable lead arrangers. We then ask whether early access to private information in the loan market accelerates the speed of information arrival in stock prices. We document that the stock returns of firms identified with earlier private information dissemination to lenders indeed exhibit faster price discovery in the stock market, but only when institutional investors are involved in the firm's syndicated loans. Further, the positive relation between institutional lending and the speed of stock price discovery is more pronounced in relatively weak public disclosure environments. These results are consistent with institutional lenders systematically exploiting confidential syndicate information via trading in the equity market.

Audit committee compensation and the demand for monitoring of the financial reporting process

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2010 49(1-2), 136-154 open access
We examine the relation between audit committee compensation and the demand for monitoring of the financial reporting process. We find that total compensation and cash retainers paid to audit committees are positively correlated with audit fees and the impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, our proxies for the demand for monitoring. Our results are robust to the inclusion of audit committee quality, measured as the committee chair financial expertise. Our results suggest a recent willingness by firms to deviate from the historically prevalent one-size-fits-all approach to director pay in response to increased demands on audit committees and differential director expertise.

Financial development and asset valuation: The special case of real estate

Journal of Banking & Finance 2010 34(1), 150-162 open access
This paper studies the impact of financial development on asset valuation. We model the agency theoretic perspective of risk-averse investors and financiers in a general equilibrium setting under the framework of rational expectations (i.e., symmetric information). We focus on real estate, as it constitutes a special case of complete market contracting where adverse selection and moral hazard are easily mitigated. Our results illustrate an increase in pareto-efficiency, as financial architecture advances from: (i) banks to capital markets; and (ii) plain vanilla debt to an innovative one with participation clauses. This is attributed to the reduction in agency costs and cross-sectional risk-sharing, leading to an increase in the value of property. Our results predict that an optimal financial system will orient itself towards efficient financial contracts, irrespective of its source of origination. We also rationalize the co-existence of banks and capital markets, and generalize our results under a set of restrictive conditions.

Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements

Journal of Accounting Research 2010 48(2), 289-334
ABSTRACT This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected aggregate discount rates and, specifically, that good earnings news is associated with a positive shock to required returns. Consistent with this interpretation we find that Treasury bond rates and implied future inflation expectations respond directly to earnings news. We also find some evidence that the negative relation between earnings news and market return persists beyond the immediate announcement period, suggesting that market participants do not immediately fully impound these future market return implications of aggregate earnings news.

What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Newspapers

Econometrica 2010 78(1), 35-71
We construct a new index of media slant that measures the similarity of a news outlet's language to that of a congressional Republican or Democrat. We estimate a model of newspaper demand that incorporates slant explicitly, estimate the slant that would be chosen if newspapers independently maximized their own profits, and compare these profit-maximizing points with firms' actual choices. We find that readers have an economically significant preference for like-minded news. Firms respond strongly to consumer preferences, which account for roughly 20 percent of the variation in measured slant in our sample. By contrast, the identity of a newspaper's owner explains far less of the variation in slant. Copyright 2010 The Econometric Society.

External Economies and International Trade Redux*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2010 125(2), 829-858
We study a world with national external economies of scale at the industry level. In contrast to the standard treatment with perfect competition and two industries, we assume Bertrand competition in a continuum of industries. With Bertrand competition, each firm can internalize the externalities from production by setting a price below those set by others. This out-of-equilibrium threat eliminates many of the “pathologies” of the standard treatment. There typically exists a unique equilibrium with trade guided by “natural” comparative advantage. And, when a country has CES preferences and any finite elasticity of substitution between goods, gains from trade are ensured.

Average correlation and stock market returns

Journal of Financial Economics 2010 96(3), 364-380
If the Roll critique is important, changes in the variance of the stock market may be only weakly related to changes in aggregate risk and subsequent stock market excess returns. However, since individual stock returns share a common sensitivity to true market return shocks, higher aggregate risk can be revealed by higher correlation between stocks. In addition, a change in stock market variance that leaves aggregate risk unchanged can have a zero or even negative effect on the stock market risk premium. We show that the average correlation between daily stock returns predicts subsequent quarterly stock market excess returns. We also show that changes in stock market risk holding average correlation constant can be interpreted as changes in the average variance of individual stocks. Such changes have a negative relation with future stock market excess returns.