We study the role of domestic and global factors in the payoffs of portfolios mimicking carry, dollar-carry, and momentum strategies. Using factors summarizing large data sets of macroeconomic and financial variables, we find that global equity-market factors are predictive for carry-trade returns, whereas U.S. inflation and consumption variables drive dollar-carry-trade payoffs, momentum returns are predominantly driven by U.S. inflation factors, and global factors capture the countercyclical nature of currency premia. We also find predictability in the exchange-rate component of each strategy and demonstrate strong economic value for risk-averse investors with mean-variance preferences, regardless of base currency.

Using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar-sterling and franc-sterling real exchange rates, the authors find strong evidence of mean-reverting real exchange rate behavior. Using simple, stationary, autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data, they easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float. Such stationary univariate equations explain 60-80 percent of the in-sample variation in real exchange rates, although the degree of short-run persistence may be high. The econometric estimates imply a half-life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about six years for dollar-sterling and a little under three years for franc-sterling. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

We study intermediation in the housing market. Using data from an online platform utilized by real estate agents to generate leads, we identify exogenous intermediary attention arising from the quasi-randomized ordering of potential listings. Greater intermediary attention leads to an increased probability of listing with an agent and selling quickly, and a higher transaction price. The listing and transaction probabilities of neighboring properties decrease in intermediary attention. These results contrast sharply with endogenous correlations and provide causal evidence that intermediaries resolve property-level frictions deriving from search, information, or behavioral considerations but do not mitigate neighborhood-level information asymmetries.

This paper examines the demand for money under conditions of very high inflation in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chi le, and Peru during the 1970s and 1980s. The authors test whether the monetary and inflationary experiences of these countries can be adequately characterized by the Cagan (1956) model, using an econometric procedure that is not reliant on any particular assumpti on concerning expectations formation except that forecasting errors are stationary. The authors also examine the importance of foreign asset substitution in domestic portfolios and the hypothesis that monetary policy was tantamount to maximization of the inflation tax revenue before testing the rational expectations hypothesis. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

We analyze the degree of policy convergence of EMS member countries relative to that of some non-EMS countries. Interestingly, we find convergence for the nominal and real exchange rates and money supplies of the EMS members but not for the non-EMS countries. We also provide some evidence to support the "German leadership hypothesis" in the context of intra-EMS monetary policy convergence.

This paper aims to assess the impact of the abolition of U.K. exchange control on the degre of integration of U.K. and overseas stock markets. Using cointegration techniques, we find that although there is no significant increase in the correlation of short-run stock market returns for the United Kingdom and certain overseas markets post 1979, there does appear to be a marked increase in the degree to which these markets move together in the long run after this date--there appears to be no long-run gain from diversification. Since cointegration of two variables implies that at least one of them can be used to help forecast the other, our findings also imply the inefficiency of a number of stock markets. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.

We develop a framework to extract information regarding subsequent spot rate movements from the term structure of forward exchange premiums while admitting possible deviations from rationality and the presence of risk premiums. Using weekly dollar–sterling, dollar– mark, and dollar–yen data, the restrictions implied by our framework are not rejected, and spot and forward exchange rates together are well represented by a vector error correction model (VECM). Dynamic out-of-sample forecasts up to one year ahead indicate that the VECM is strikingly superior to a range of alternative forecasts, including a random walk and standard spot-forward regressions.

Analyzing 48 foreign exchange (FX) rates and 1.2 million FX-related news articles over a 35-year period, using digital textual analysis, we find that a currency reversal investment strategy that buys (sells) currencies with low (high) media sentiment offers strong positive and statistically significant returns and Sharpe ratios. The results are robust and the strategy adds value over other currency premia determinants. Analysts’ forecasts systematically mispredict the reversal strategy. This is the first article to show that price reversals based on media sentiment are a well-defined feature of the FX market.

Using a measure of political risk, relative to the United States, that captures unexpected political conditions, we show that political risk is priced in the cross section of currency momentum and contains information beyond other risk factors. Our results are robust after controlling for transaction costs, reversals, and alternative limits to arbitrage. The global political environment affects the profitability of the momentum strategy in the foreign exchange market; investors following such strategies are compensated for the exposure to the global political risk of those currencies they hold, that is, the past winners, and exploit the lower returns of loser portfolios. The risk compensation is mainly justified by the different exposures of foreign currencies in the momentum portfolio to U.S. political shocks, which is the main component of global political risk.