Using data from Chinese stock markets, we examine the effect of speculative trading on stock returns. We develop a volume-related variable, abnormal turnover ratio (ATR), by isolating speculative trading from liquidity and other components in trading volume. After a group of tests verifying that ATR indeed represents speculative trading, we show that ATR negatively predicts future stock returns. The average monthly return spread between the top and bottom ATR deciles is −1.87%, suggesting a highly significant negative ATR premium. The return predictability of ATR survives after controlling for common risk factors and event-driven information shocks. These findings indicate that speculative trading affects asset prices.

This article develops the uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression when the true lag order of the model is unknown and potentially infinite. The theory allows for varying degrees of persistence in the data, growing response horizons, and general conditionally heteroskedastic martingale-difference shocks. Based on the theory, we make two main contributions. First, we show that LPs can achieve semiparametric efficiency at a given horizon under classical assumptions on the data, provided that the controlled lag order diverges. Thus, the commonly perceived efficiency loss of LPs can become asymptotically negligible with many controls. Second, we propose LP-based inference procedures for (level and cumulated) impulse responses that possess robustness properties not shared by existing methods. Inference methods using two distinct standard errors are considered. The uniform validity for the first method depends on a zero fourth-order cumulant condition on shocks, while that of the second holds more generally for conditionally heteroskedastic martingale-difference shocks. We propose a bootstrap procedure that improves finite-sample performance and extend the standard error construction to structural responses.

This study investigates how investors that own both equity and debt in the same firm affect other shareholders in the firm. It documents that dual claim investors are quite prevalent among the industrial firms listed in the Russell 3000, with over 20% of them having a bank holding company that owns both debt and equity in the firm. The results imply that shareholders are substantially impacted by the presence of dual claim investors in firms, suggesting that relatively small ownership stakes by dual claim banks are associated with greater conflicts of interest among shareholders and debt holders; while relatively large bank equity stakes may benefit outside shareholders when aligned with loan by dual claim banks because they improve bank monitoring incentives and reduce the agency cost of debt.

I combine personnel records with vital statistics for 1910 to 1925 to study how bureaucratic representation affected mortality in 1,271 Indian towns during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exploiting the rotation of senior colonial officers across districts and a cross-border comparison, towns headed by Indian (as opposed to British) district officers experienced 15 percentage points lower deaths. The lower mortality effects extended beyond the urban areas and coincided with greater responsiveness in relief provision. Bureaucratic representation can thus be a powerful way to increase state responsiveness during times of crisis.

This article examines the extent to which agency theory may explain chief executive officer (CEO) compensation in Chinese state‐owned enterprises during the 1980s. We find support for the agency theory: CEO pay sensitivity decreases with the variance of performance. Moreover, the performance sensitivity of CEO pay increases with the marginal return to executive action. While the elasticity of pay to sales is slightly smaller than that found for conventional firms in the West generally, our estimate of the semielasticity of pay with respect to profitability is comparable with estimates for regulated industries in the United States.

Research in finance and macroeconomics has routinely employed multiple horizons to test asset return predictability. In a simple predictive regression model, we find the popular scaled test can have zero power when the predictor is not sufficiently persistent. A new test based on implication of the short-run model is suggested and is shown to be uniformly more powerful than the scaled test. The new test can accommodate multiple predictors. Compared with various other widely used tests, simulation experiments demonstrate remarkable finite-sample performance. We reexamine the predictive ability of various popular predictors for aggregate equity premium.

We examine how firms are affected by the political bargaining power of their headquarters’ region. Exploiting variation in the strategic importance of swing states stemming from shifting partisan balance in the U.S. Senate, we find that corporate valuations and investments positively respond to increases in regional political influence. We verify the valuation findings using an event study based on the 2021 Georgia runoff election that unexpectedly produced a 50-50 balance in the Senate. We investigate potential policy mechanisms and find that tax incentives constitute the most likely channel through which firms benefit from the political bargaining power of their headquarters’ region.

Because of the inherent uncertainty, promotion of innovation critically depends on screening mechanisms to select projects. This paper studies the relationship between bureaucracy and financial constraints as two such mechanisms. The lack of commitment to hard financial constraints interferes with its ex post screening capability; ex ante bureaucratic screening is optimally chosen as a substitute. However, bureaucracy makes mistakes by rejecting promising projects and delays innovation, and the efficiency loss due to soft financial constraints increases as prior knowledge becomes worse and as research stage investment requirements become lower. In a centralized economy, bureaucracy may reduce the number of parallel projects, particularly for projects with higher uncertainties and less research stage requirements. This theory fits much of the evidence and in particular it explains why the computer industry, but not the nuclear or aerospace industries, has fared so poorly in centralized economies.

The literature on institutions has been challenged on grounds of reverse causality, measurement error in institutional indicators, and heterogeneity. This paper uses firm-level data across countries to confront these challenges. We focus on the effect on firm-level external finance, and “unbundle” institutions in the sense of Acemoglu and Johnson (2005), while addressing the largely-ignored issue of measurement error in institutional indicators. We find that contracting institutions that facilitate transactions between private parties exert little effect on firms' access to external finance. In contrast, property rights institutions that constrain political and economic elites exhibit a strong positive association with access to external finance. Interestingly, the association between property rights institutions and external finance tends to be stronger for working capital than for investment. Our results suggest that an important channel for institutions and especially property right institutions to affect development is through access to external finance.

We document important links between targets’ institutional ownership and takeover-bid outcomes. Firms’ institutional ownership increases the likelihood of receiving stock-for-stock bids. The impact becomes stronger when information asymmetries are higher, whereas we find little support for alternative channels, such as bidder misvaluation or target-side adverse selection. The information channel is further buttressed in our analyses of institutions’ share-retention decisions, targets’ demand for top-tier advisors, collar provisions, and targets’ share of expected synergies. Our findings suggest that institutions’ information advantage facilitates rational payment design and targets’ bargaining power gains, alleviating deadweight losses associated with stock-for-stock offers.