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Preferred habitat for liquidity in international short-term interest rates

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(2), 240-250 open access
Risk-shifting window dressing and a preferred habitat for liquidity have been offered as possible explanations as to why US money market rates are higher before the year-end than afterwards. The two hypotheses differ in the timing of the rate decline at the year-end and the evidence on the timing of the decline supports the preferred habitat hypothesis in US money markets. This paper extends this line of research to the behavior of international short-term interest rates at year-ends and quarter-ends using London interbank offer rates (LIBOR) for 11 different currencies. The results suggest that the behavior of LIBOR for five currencies: the US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and German Mark is consistent with year-end or quarter-end preferred habitats for liquidity. Other currencies do not demonstrate consistently distinct patterns in turn-of-the-year and turn-of-the-quarter yields. None of the results provides any support for risk-shifting window dressing.

Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?

American Economic Review 2008 98(3), 924-937
We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.” We impose a large increase in liquidity and dividend uncertainty to shock the environment of experienced subjects who have converged to equilibrium, and this treatment rekindles a bubble. However, in replications of that same challenging environment across three experience levels, we discover that the environment yields a rare residual tendency to bubble even in the third experience session. Therefore, a caveat must be placed on the effect of twice-experienced subjects in asset markets: in order for price bubbles to be extinguished, the environment in which the participants engage in exchange must be stationary and bounded by a range of parameters. Experience, including possible “error” elimination, is not robust to major new environment changes in determining the characteristics of a price bubble.

Determinants and Consequences of Firm Information Technology Budgets

The Accounting Review 2008 83(4), 957-995
For most firms, the information technology (IT) budget represents a major element in the overall firm budget, and IT budget decisions often have significant operational and strategic impacts on the business processes in the firm’s value chain. In this paper we use a large unique data set to examine the extent to which IT budgets are affected by environmental, organizational, and technological circumstances. We find that our cross-sectional model explains substantial variance in IT budgets, which indicates that contingent environmental, organizational, and technological factors affect managers’ budget decisions. We then examine the extent to which these IT budget levels are related to future firm performance, measured using both broad financial accounting measures, such as operating profit margins and return on assets, and market returns. We find that IT budget levels are positively associated with subsequent firm performance and shareholder returns. We further suggest that IT’s aggregate effect on performance is a weighted average of two very different components: (1) context-driven IT budget levels, which reflect the effects of environmental, organization, and technological factors and the IT budgets resulting from them, and (2) idiosyncratic IT budget levels, which reflect the effect of any marginal firm-specific IT budget expenditures after controlling for these contextual factors. Both components are positively associated with performance, indicating that the specified contextual factors provide an incomplete explanation of firms’ value-relevant IT expenditures. The current study contributes to the accounting information systems and management accounting literatures by assessing the causes and consequences of IT budgets.

Neighbors Matter: Causal Community Effects and Stock Market Participation

Journal of Finance 2008 63(3), 1509-1531 open access
This paper establishes a causal relation between an individual's decision whether to own stocks and average stock market participation of the individual's community. We instrument for the average ownership of an individual's community with lagged average ownership of the states in which one's nonnative neighbors were born. Combining this instrumental variables approach with controls for individual and community fixed effects, a broad set of time‐varying individual and community controls, and state‐year effects rules out alternative explanations. To further establish that word‐of‐mouth communication drives this causal effect, we show that the results are stronger in more sociable communities.

Historical Property Rights, Sociality, and the Emergence of Impersonal Exchange in Long-Distance Trade

American Economic Review 2008 98(3), 1009-1039
This laboratory experiment explores the extent to which impersonal exchange emerges from personal exchange with opportunities for long-distance trade. We design a three-commodity production and exchange economy in which agents in three geographically separated villages must develop multilateral exchange networks to import a good only available abroad. For treatments, we induce two distinct institutional histories to investigate how past experience with property rights affects the evolution of specialization and exchange. We find that a history of unenforced property rights hinders our subjects' ability to develop the requisite personal social arrangements to support specialization and effectively exploit impersonal long-distance trade.