Knowledge that Transforms

How big is the elasticity of substitution between goods from different countries—the Armington elasticity? Estimates of the macroelasticity between home and imported goods are often smaller than the microelasticity between foreign sources of imports. Using new, highly disaggregate U.S. production data matched to imports and simulated data from a Melitz-style model with nested CES preferences, we explore estimation techniques for the two elasticities. For between two-thirds and three-quarters of sample goods, there is no significant difference between the macro- and microelasticities, but for the rest, the microelasticity is significantly higher, even at the same level of disaggregation.

We propose a new model for measuring uncertainty and its effects on the economy, based on a large vector autoregression with stochastic volatility driven by common factors representing macroeconomic and financial uncertainty. The uncertainty measures reflect changes in both the conditional mean and volatility of the variables, and their impact on the economy can be assessed within the same framework. Estimates with U.S. data show substantial commonality in uncertainty, with sizable effects of uncertainty on key macroeconomic and financial variables. However, historical decompositions show a limited role of uncertainty shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations.

We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960 to 2010, we obtain measurement error-corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cities are substantially underpoliced.

Here’s why. (a) The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter introduces spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (b) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (c) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice. (d) There is a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date t on the four most recent values as of date t - h achieves all the objectives sought by users of the HP filter with none of its drawbacks.

We analyze for the first time the economic contributions of modern industrial robots, which are flexible, versatile, and autonomous machines. We use novel panel data on robot adoption within industries in seventeen countries from 1993 to 2007 and new instrumental variables that rely on robots’ comparative advantage in specific tasks. Our findings suggest that increased robot use contributed approximately 0.36 percentage points to annual labor productivity growth, while at the same time raising total factor productivity and lowering output prices. Our estimates also suggest that robots did not significantly reduce total employment, although they did reduce low-skilled workers’ employment share.

Few economists are aware of a wonderful problem. While climatologists claimed it first, the twists and turns make- the problem appear almost as if it were devised to show off the tools and controversies of microeconomics. Even more astounding is the fact that such an abstract, long-term problem excites the interest of the general public and media, and even politicians who desire more resources 1O be spent on research.

The cost of government regulation of the automobile has been the subject of heated controversy since its inception in the mid- 1960's. Much of this controversy has centered on the costs and benefits of individual regulations, but there has been little attention paid to the overall effect of emissions and safety regulation. In this paper, we attempt to measure the effect of these regulatory policies upon the consumer cost of owning and operating an automobile.

Explanations of inflation can be subdivided into two major groups. "Sociological theories" assert that movements of prices and wages proceed independently of market conditions. Economic theories on the other hand elaborate the essential dependence of price-wage movements on evolving market conditions. Sociological theories, dominant in Europe, emphasize the role of a wide array of institutional arrangements. In contrast, according to economic theory all forces and events affect inflation via market processes

Congress pursues externalities one at a time. The resulting legislation embodies the same sequential approach, instructing regulatory agencies to set and enforce standards for a single problem. Rarely, if ever, are agencies instructed or even permitted to account for contradictions with other federal legislation and rulemaking.