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Intraday Lead-Lag Relationships Between the Futures-, Options and Stock Market

Review of Finance 1998 1(3), 337-359 open access
In rational, efficiently functioning and complete markets, returns on derivative and underlying securities should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Due to market imperfections, one of these markets may reflect information faster. The use of high-frequency data and the choice for a small unit time interval to measure these lead-lag relations comes at the cost of some or many missing observations, causing traditional estimators to either under- or overestimate covariances and correlations. We use a new estimator to estimate lead-lag relationships between the cash AEX index, options and futures. We find that futures returns lead both options and cash index returns by approximately 10 minutes. The relationship between options and the cash market is not completely unidirectional.

Crash-neutral currency carry trades

Journal of Financial Economics 2014 113(3), 325-347
Currency carry trades exploiting violations of uncovered interest rate parity in G10 currencies deliver significant excess returns with annualized Sharpe ratios equal to or greater than those of equity market factors (1990–2012). Using data on out-of-the-money foreign exchange options, I compute returns to crash-hedged portfolios and demonstrate that the high returns to carry trades are not due to peso problems. A comparison of the returns to hedged and unhedged trades indicates crash risk premia account for at most one-third of the excess return to currency carry trades.

Speed of issuance and the adequacy of disclosure in the 144A high-yield debt market

Journal of Financial Economics 2000 56(3), 383-405
I document the shift of high-yield issuance from the public to the Rule 144A private placement market and exploit data on credit spreads to investigate whether investors regard disclosure in the two markets as comparable. The key implications of the inadequate-disclosure hypothesis are that investors require premiums on 144A securities and that such premiums are largest for first-time bond issuers and privately owned firms about whom less information is publicly available. I find that 144A premiums, though positive initially, have vanished over time, and I find no evidence of larger 144A premiums for first-time issuers or private firms. Investors do, however, require premiums of first-time issuers, and to a lesser extent of privately owned firms, regardless of whether securities are issued in the 144A or public market. These findings imply that sophisticated investors do not value the incremental information provided by securities registration, but do value ongoing disclosure.

Capital markets and corporate structure: the equity carve-outs of Thermo Electron1I am grateful to Michael Jensen, David Haushalter, John McConnell, Michael Vetsuypens and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. I also wish to thank Thermo Electron Corporation for providing data and Mark Alger for excellent research assistance.1

Journal of Financial Economics 1998 48(1), 99-124
This paper examines the innovative corporate structure of Thermo Electron Corporation which holds controlling interests in 11 units taken public in equity carve-outs. Carve-outs subject units of the company to the scrutiny of the capital markets, allow the compensation contracts of unit managers to be based on market performance, and shift capital acquisition and investment decisions from centralized control to unit managers. Thermo carve-outs substantially increase capital and R&D expenditures following carve-outs and generate significant value from their capital investments. Since the first carve-out in 1983, gains to shareholders have been substantially greater than industry and market benchmarks.

The influence of professional investors on the failure of management buyout attempts

Journal of Financial Economics 1996 40(2), 267-294
In a sample of 111 MBO offers between 1984 and 1987, almost 30% attract new blockholders. These blockholders are primarily professional investors who act to facilitate a takeover by a higher bidder, thus increasing returns to both themselves and other public shareholders. In contrast, I find little evidence that pre-existing blockholders, particularly institutional holders, affect either the offer outcome or actively participate in the buyout contest once it begins. The overall pattern of results suggests that professional investors, particularly equity-holding companies, are ‘control specialists’ who provide valuable services as brokers in the market for corporate control.

Investment banking and the capital acquisition process

Journal of Financial Economics 1986 15(1-2), 3-29
This paper reviews the theory and evidence on the process by which corporations raise debt and equity capital and the associated effects on security prices. Findings from related transactions are used to test hypotheses about the stock price patterns accompanying announcements of security offerings. Various contractual alternatives employed in security issues are examined; for example, rights or underwritten offers, negotiated or competitive bid, best efforts or firm commitment contracts, and shelf or traditional registration. Finally, incentives for underpricing new issues are analyzed.

The weekend effect on the distribution of stock prices

Journal of Financial Economics 1984 13(4), 547-559
Evidence of weekend effects on the distribution of security returns suggests that returns are generated by a process operating closer to trading time rather than calendar time. In contrast, accumulation of interest over the weekend follows a calendar-time process. Since both the variance of returns and the interest rate are important parameters of the Black-Scholes option pricing model, this paper suggests that the model be stated to account for this by utilizing a trading-time variance and a calendar-time interest rate. Empirical evidence indicates that this allows the model to better explain market option prices.

The relationship between return and market value of common stocks

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(1), 3-18
This study examines the empirical relationship between the return and the total market value of NYSE common stocks. It is found that smaller firms have had higher risk adjusted returns, on average, than larger firms. This ‘size effect’ has been in existence for at least forty years and is evidence that the capital asset pricing model is misspecified. The size effect is not linear in the market value; the main effect occurs for very small firms while there is little difference in return between average sized and large firms. It is not known whether size per se is responsible for the effect or whether size is just a proxy for one or more true unknown factors correlated with size.

Alternative methods for raising capital

Journal of Financial Economics 1977 5(3), 273-307
This paper provides an analysis of the choice of method for raising additional equity capital by listed firms. Examination of expenses reported to the SEC indicates that rights offerings involve significantly lower costs; yet underwriter are employed in over 90 percent of the offerings. The underwriting industry, finance textbooks, and corporate proxy statements offer several justifications for the use of underwriters. However, estimates of the magnitudes of these arguments indicate that they are insufficient to justify the additional costs of the use of underwriters. The use of underwriters thus appears to be inconsistent with rational, wealth-maximizing behavior by the owners of the firm. The paper concludes with an examination of alternate explanations of the observed choice of financing method.