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Information Aggregation, Inflation, and the Pricing of Indexed Bonds
Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis that the Real Rate of Interest is Constant
Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns
We use predictions of aggregate stock return variances from daily data to estimate time‐varying monthly variances for size‐ranked portfolios. We propose and estimate a single factor model of heteroskedasticity for portfolio returns. This model implies time‐varying betas. Implications of heteroskedasticity and time‐varying betas for tests of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) are then documented. Accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the evidence that risk‐adjusted returns are related to firm size. We also estimate a constant correlation model. Portfolio volatilities predicted by this model are similar to those predicted by more complex multivariate generalized‐autoregressive‐conditional‐heteroskedasticity (GARCH) procedures.
Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns
We use predictions of aggregate stock return variances from daily data to estimate time-varying monthly variances for size-ranked portfolios. We propose and estimate a single factor model of heteroskedasticity for portfolio returns. This model implies time-varying betas. Implications of heteroskedasticity and time-varying betas for tests of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) are then documented. Accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the evidence that risk-adjusted returns are related to firm size. We also estimate a constant correlation model. Portfolio volatilities predicted by this model are similar to those predicted by more complex multivariate generalized-autoregressive-conditional-heteroskedasticity (GARCH) procedures.
Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns.
The authors use predictions of aggregate stock return variances from daily data to estimate time-varying monthly variances for size-ranked portfolios. The authors propose and estimate a single factor model of heteroskedasticity for portfolio returns. This model implies time-varying betas. Implications of heteroskedasticity and time-varying betas for tests of the capital asset pricing model are then documented. Accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the evidence that risk-adjusted returns are related to firm size. The authors also estimate a constant correlation model. Portfolio volatilities predicted by this model are similar to those predicated by more complex multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity procedures.
Is the IPO pricing process efficient?
This paper investigates underwriters’ treatment of public information throughout the IPO pricing process. Two key findings emerge. First, public information is not fully incorporated into the initial price range. While the economic magnitude of the bias is small, it is puzzling because it is not clear who benefits from it. Further, it indicates that the filing range midpoint is not an unbiased predictor of the offer price, as prior literature has assumed. Second, while public information is similarly not fully incorporated into the final offer price, the small economic significance of this relation indicates that the IPO pricing process is almost efficient.
Expected stock returns and volatility
This paper examines the relation between stock returns and stock market volatility. We find evidence that the expected market risk premium (the expected return on a stock portfolio minus the Treasury bill yield) is positively related to the predictable volatility of stock returns. There is also evidence that unexpected stock market returns are negatively related to the unexpected change in the volatility of stock returns. This negative relation provides indirect evidence of a positive relation between expected risk premiums and volatility.
Changes in the management structure of the JFE
IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?
Both IPO volume and average initial returns are highly autocorrelated. Further, more companies tend to go public following periods of high initial returns. However, we find that the level of average initial returns at the time of filing contains no information about that company's eventual underpricing. Both the cycles in initial returns and the lead‐lag relation between initial returns and IPO volume are predominantly driven by information learned during the registration period. More positive information results in higher initial returns and more companies filing IPOs soon thereafter.