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Banking crises, financial dependence, and growth☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2007 84(1), 187-228
This paper contributes to the literature that analyzes the mechanisms linking financial shocks and real activity. In particular, we investigate the growth impact of banking crises on industries with different levels of dependence on external finance. If banks are the key institutions allowing credit constraints to be relaxed, then a sudden loss of these intermediaries in a system in which such intermediaries are important should have a disproportionately contractionary impact on the sectors that flourished due to their reliance on banks. Using data from 38 developed and developing countries that experienced financial crises during the last quarter century, we find that those sectors that are highly dependent on external finance tend to experience a substantially greater contraction of value added during a banking crisis in countries with deeper financial systems than in countries with shallower financial systems. Our results do not suggest, however, that on net the externally dependent firms fare worse in deep financial systems.

Do Women Shy Away From Competition? Do Men Compete Too Much?

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2007 122(3), 1067-1101
We examine whether men and women of the same ability differ in their selection into a competitive environment. Participants in a laboratory experiment solve a real task, first under a non-competitive piece rate and then a competitive tournament incentive scheme. Although there are no gender differences in performance, men select the tournament twice as much as women when choosing their compensation scheme for the next performance. While seventy-three percent of the men select the tournament only thirty-five percent of the women make this choice. This gender gap in tournament entry is not explained by performance and factors such as risk and feedback aversion only play a negligible role. Instead the tournament-entry gap is driven by men being more overconfident and by gender differences in preferences for performing in a competition. The result is that women shy away from competition and men embrace it. * We thank Scott Kinross, who conducted all the experiments reported in this paper, for his excellent research assistance. We thank the editors and the referees who helped us improve the paper. We also

Do Termination Provisions Truncate the Takeover Bidding Process?

Review of Financial Studies 2007 20(2), 461-489
We provide new evidence on termination provisions and the takeover bidding process. Our central contribution is a novel database from Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) documents that accurately measures the incidence of termination provisions and the depth of competition in takeover deals. We show that biased data in prior research produced incorrect conclusions on the relation between termination provisions and judicial decisions, bidder toeholds, and deal size. Our comprehensive data also show that termination provisions are positively related to takeover competition. Our evidence is consistent with the information/commitment hypothesis in which termination provisions do not truncate bidding but instead culminate the takeover process. (JEL G34; K22; D44).

Home Bias, Foreign Mutual Fund Holdings, and the Voluntary Adoption of International Accounting Standards

Journal of Accounting Research 2007 45(1), 41-70
ABSTRACT We test the assertion that a consequence of voluntarily adopting International Accounting Standards (IAS) is the enhanced ability to attract foreign capital. Using a unique database that reports firm‐level holdings of over 25,000 mutual funds from around the world, our multivariate tests find that average foreign mutual fund ownership is significantly higher among IAS adopters. We also find that IAS adopters in poorer information environments and with lower visibility have higher levels of foreign investment, consistent with firms using IAS adoption to provide more information and/or information in a more familiar form to foreign investors. Taken together, our findings are consistent with voluntary IAS adoption reducing home bias among foreign investors and thereby improving capital allocation efficiency.

Analyst Hype in IPOs: Explaining the Popularity of Bookbuilding

Review of Financial Studies 2007 20(4), 1021-1058
The bookbuilding IPO procedure has captured significant market share from auction alternatives recently, despite the significantly lower costs related to the auction mechanism. In France, where both mechanisms were used in the 1990s, the ostensible advantages of bookbuilding were advertising-related benefits. Book-built issues were more likely to be followed and positively recommended by lead underwriters. Even nonunderwriters' analysts promote book-built issues more in order to curry favor with the IPO underwriter for allocations of future deals. Yet we do not observe valuation or post-IPO return differentials that suggest these types of promotion have any value to the issuing firm.

Stochastic skew in currency options☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2007 86(1), 213-247
We analyze the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness, maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past eight years. We find that, on any given date, the conditional risk-neutral distribution of currency returns can show strong asymmetry. This asymmetry varies greatly over time and often switches signs. We develop and estimate a class of models that captures this stochastic skew behavior. Model estimation shows that our stochastic skew models significantly outperform traditional jump-diffusion stochastic volatility models both in sample and out of sample.

Multifrequency news and stock returns☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2007 86(1), 178-212
Equity prices are driven by shocks with persistence levels ranging from intraday horizons to several decades. To accommodate this diversity, we introduce a parsimonious equilibrium model with regime shifts of heterogeneous durations in fundamentals, and estimate specifications with up to 256 states on daily aggregate returns. The multifrequency equilibrium has higher likelihood than the Campbell and Hentschel [1992. No news is good news: an asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics 31, 281–318] specification, while producing volatility feedback 10 to 40 times larger. Furthermore, Bayesian learning about volatility generates a novel trade-off between skewness and kurtosis as information quality varies, complementing the uncertainty channel [e.g., Veronesi, 1999. Stock market overreaction to bad news in good times: a rational expectations equilibrium model. Review of Financial Studies 12, 975–1007]. Economies with intermediate information best match daily returns.

Banks and bubbles: How good are bankers at spotting winners?☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2007 86(1), 40-70
This paper examines the bank lending relations of a large sample of technology and nontechnology firms that went public during the 1996–2000 period. We use a unique hand-collected data set to examine the characteristics of firms that establish pre- Initial Public Offering (IPO) bank lending relations and whether post-IPO performance is related to the existence and size of pre-IPO banking relations. We find that the majority of IPO firms have banking relations before they go public. Firms with banking relations are older, more profitable or, in the case of tech firms, have lower losses, and are more likely to have funding from venture capitalists than firms without banking relations. We also find that banks lent aggressively to technology firms in the sense that current earnings and cash flows were significantly less important in determining banking relations for technology firms than for nontechnology firms. Consistent with the importance of so-called soft information in lending decisions, we find that, controlling for ex ante observable risk measures, there is a positive and significant relation between improvements in post-IPO operating performance and the existence and size of pre-IPO banking relations. Overall, our results indicate that firms with the best current and future prospects establish banking relations. Our findings provide an explanation as to why investors could interpret lending relations as a positive signal of firm quality.