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Determinants of contractual relations between shareholders and bondholders: investment opportunities and restrictive covenants

Journal of Corporate Finance 2003 9(2), 201-232
We evaluate the costs and benefits of restrictive covenants in bonds issued in 1989 and 1996. Our results indicate that firms with growth opportunities are more likely to seek to preserve flexibility in future financing activities by not including dividend or debt issuance restrictions in their bond contracts. We do not find, however, that the use of other restrictive covenants is significantly lower for firms with high investment opportunities. Instead, the use of these other covenants is primarily driven by the issuing firm's likelihood of financial distress. Our results emphasize that contractual relations between firms and bondholders reflect the specific needs of the contracting parties.

College Education and the Midcentury GI Bills

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2003 118(2), 671-708
The midcentury GI bills were the largest direct scholarship program for higher education in American history. I use a comparison group created by the sharp cutoff date of the Korean War GI bill to evaluate the effects of the Korean War GI bill on postsecondary educational attainment and access to college by the disadvantaged. I then bound the likely effects of the World War II GI bill based on elasticities estimated for the Korean War GI bill and new estimates using older veterans as a comparison group for younger ones. I find that the combination of the Korean War and WWII GI bills probably increased total postsecondary attainment among all men born between 1921 and 1933 by about 15 to 20 percent, with smaller effects for surrounding cohorts. The impacts of both programs on college attainment were apparently concentrated among veterans from families in the upper half of the distribution of socioeconomic status.

Anomalous stock returns around internet firms’ earnings announcements

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2003 34(1-3), 249-271 open access
This paper presents evidence of anomalies in internet firms’ stock returns surrounding their quarterly earnings announcements. There is a general runup in prices in the days prior to the earnings announcements, followed by a price reversal lasting for several days. The magnitude of the market-adjusted returns associated with these price movements exceeds 11 percent over a 10-day period. We find little evidence to suggest that these returns can be explained either by the earnings news disclosed or by risk changes. Additional analyses suggest that these return patterns are driven, at least in part, by price pressure.

A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation

Journal of Financial Economics 2003 67(1), 41-80 open access
We develop an approximate solution method for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely long-lived investor with Epstein–Zin utility who faces a set of asset returns described by a vector autoregression in returns and state variables. Empirical estimates in long-run annual and post-war quarterly U.S. data suggest that the predictability of stock returns greatly increases the optimal demand for stocks. The role of nominal bonds in long-term portfolios depends on the importance of real interest rate risk relative to other sources of risk. Long-term inflation-indexed bonds greatly increase the utility of conservative investors.

Governance and boards of directors in closed-end investment companies

Journal of Financial Economics 2003 69(1), 111-152
We analyze whether board structure and director independence in closed-end investment companies are related to shareholder interests in ways that are consistent with boards being effective monitors. We report that funds with relatively low expense ratios, one measure of board effectiveness, have smaller boards, a higher proportion of board members who are legally considered independent, relatively low director compensation, and charter provisions that specify remedial action if discounts become large. Evidence from our analysis of major fund restructuring decisions, including share repurchases, open-ending proposals and right offerings, is largely consistent with the expense ratio analysis. Overall, board characteristics that we identify with effective board independence are associated with lower expense ratios and value-enhancing restructurings.

A note on savings and loan ownership structure and expense preference: A re-examination

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 27(10), 2003-2014
This study extends the work of Akella and Greenbaum [Journal of Banking & Finance 12 (1988) 419] through the use of a much larger, nationwide sample of US saving and loan associations and supports their original finding of significant expense-preference behavior in mutual savings and loans during their original study period (1979–80). This study also provides evidence that over the time period of substantial deregulation and changes in the competitive environment in the US financial services industry, expense-preference behavior for savings and loans decreased. The results are consistent with the idea that the removal of barriers that restrict competition should improve managerial efficiency in firms that survive.

A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion

Review of Financial Studies 2003 16(3), 717-763
This article proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets. Our measure of contagion captures the coincidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions. We characterize the extent of contagion, its economic significance, and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model. Applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s, we find that contagion is predictable and depends on regional interest rates, exchange rate changes, and conditional stock return volatility. Evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed.

Employer Stock and 401(k) Plans

American Economic Review 2003 93(2), 398-404
The sharp decline in the stock prices of several firms at which employees held a large fraction of their 401(k) plan assets in company stock, including Enron, Global Crossing, Lucent, and Polaroid, has sparked a public-policy debate about investment options in 401(k) plans. At many large firms, particularly those with retirement saving plans that combine elements of an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) with a traditional 401(k), a substantial fraction of defined-contribution retirement-plan assets are held in company stock. Such undiversified holdings are a source of concern because they raise the volatility of the retirement wealth for employees and expose some workers to the prospect of very small retirement values. Holding an undiversified position in employer stock may be particularly costly because of the potential correlation between company stock returns and the value of the worker’s human capital, which may depend on the company’s prospects. This paper reviews the extent of undiversified company-stock investments in 401(k) plans, evaluates the cost of such investments from an employee’s perspective, and discusses a range of policy actions that could address the excessive concentration of retirement plan assets.

Employee stock options, EPS dilution, and stock repurchases

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2003 36(1-3), 51-90
We investigate whether corporate executives’ stock repurchase decisions are affected by their incentives to manage diluted earning per share (EPS). We find that executives increase the level of their firms’ stock repurchases when: (1) the dilutive effect of outstanding employee stock options (ESOs) on diluted EPS increases, and (2) earnings are below the level required to achieve the desired rate of EPS growth. We also find that executives’ repurchase decisions are not associated with actual ESO exercises, suggesting that they are driven by incentives to manage diluted but not basic EPS, and strengthening our earnings management interpretation.