The founding of the Federal Reserve System in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates. We examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected. We then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations responded. Our results indicate that the change in policy regime was rapid and that individuals quickly understood the new environment they were facing.

This paper examines Ricardian equivalence in a world in which taxes are not lump sum, but are levied on risky labor income. It shows that the marginal propensity to consume out of a tax cut, coupled with a future income tax increase, can be substantial under plausible assumptions. Indeed, the MPC out of a tax cut can be closer to the Keynesian value that ignores the future tax liabilities than to the Ricardian value that treats future taxes as if they were lump sum.

This paper examines the optimal allocation of risk in an overlapping‐generations economy. It compares the allocation of risk the economy reaches naturally to the allocation that would be reached if generations behind a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance” could share risk with one another through complete Arrow‐Debreu contingent‐claims markets. The paper then examines how the government might implement optimal intergenerational risk sharing with a social security system. One conclusion is that the system must either hold equity claims to capital or negatively index benefits to equity returns.

Much recent work emphasizes the joint nature of the consumption decision and the portfolio allocation decision. In this paper, we compare two formulations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The traditional CAPM suggests that the appropriate measure of an asset's risk is the covariance of the asset's return with the market return. The consumption CAPM, on the other hand, implies that a better measure of risk is the covariance with aggregate consumption growth. We examine a cross-section of 464 stocks and find that the beta measured with respect to a stock market index outperforms the beta measured with respect to consumption growth.

The neoclassical growth model accords with empirical evidence on convergence if capital is viewed broadly to include human investments, so that diminishing returns to capital set in slowly, and if differences in government policies or other variables create substantial differences in steady-state positions. However, open-economy versions of the theory predict higher rates of convergence than those observed empirically. We show that the open-economy model conforms with the evidence if an economy can borrow to finance only a portion of its capital, for example, if human capital must be financed by domestic savings.

This paper analyzes the effects of governeent debt and income taxes on consumption and saving in a world of infinitely-lived households having uncertain and heterogeneous incomes. The special structure of the model allows exact aggregation across households despite incomplete mmrkets. The effects of government debt are shown to be substantial, roughly comparable to those resulting from finite horizons, and crucially dependent on the length of time until the debt is repaid. Also, anticipated changes in taxes are shown to cause anticipated changes in consumption. Finally, an index of fiscal stance is derived.

This paper presents and implements statistical tests of stock-market forecastability and volatility that are immune from the severe statistical problems of earlier tests. It finds that although the null hypothesis of market efficiency is rejected, the rejections are only marginal. The paper also shows how volatility tests and recent regression tests are closely related, and demonstrates that when finite sample biases are taken into account, regression tests also fail to provide strong evidence of violations of the conventional valuation model.