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Completed Fertility and Its Timing

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(5), 917-940
This paper presents a dynamic economic model of fertility behavior estimated with age-year-specific U.S. time-series data. The estimated model indicates that couples, on average, time their births to avoid periods when female wage rates are expected to be high, and that most of the observed effect of income and female wages on fertility rates is due to the indirect influence of these variables on couples' wage and income expectations. This paper also presents a decomposition of current fertility rates into timing and completed fertility components, allowing a comparison of current low fertility rates with couples' lifetime fertility plans. The estimates indicate that aggregate planned completed fertility is approximately equal to the fertility rate.

Interest Rates in the $Eurobond Market

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1980 15(3), 743
Since the early 1960's the European capital market has witnessed rapid growth as a source of short- and long-term dollar denominated funds to international borrowers and as an alternative investment area to potential lenders. While considerable work has analyzed the determinants of short-term dollar denominated Eurorates (Eurodollar yields), less work has concentrated on the determinants of long-term dollar denominated (Eurobond yields under floating rates and post-capital controls.