Abstract We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies, as well as bond term premia in both currencies. Our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the comovement between exchange rates and term premia, and the finding that central banks’ quantitative easing policies affect exchange rates. An extension of our model links spot exchange rates to the persistent deviations from covered interest rate parity that have emerged since 2008.

Abstract To explore whether schools’ causal impacts on test scores measure their overall impact on students, we exploit plausibly exogenous school assignments and data from Trinidad and Tobago to estimate the causal impacts of individual schools on several outcomes. Schools’ impacts on high-stakes tests are weakly related to impacts on important outcomes such as arrests, dropout, teen motherhood, and formal labour market participation. To examine if parents’ school preferences are related to these causal impacts, we link them to parents’ ranked lists of schools and employ discrete-choice models to infer preferences for schools. Parents choose schools that improve high-stakes tests even conditional on peer quality and average outcomes. Parents also choose schools that reduce criminality and teen motherhood and increase labour market participation. School choices among parents of low-achieving students are relatively more strongly related to schools’ impacts on non-test-score outcomes, while the opposite is true for parents of high-achieving students. These results suggest that evaluations based solely on test scores may be misleading about the benefits of school choice (particularly for low-achieving students), and education interventions more broadly.

Abstract An important literature emphasizes that finance grew rapidly after WWII relative to the full economy and the services sector, but these are poor benchmarks because they mask a broad structural shift from low- to high-skill services. We show that i) finance is among the most skill-intensive service industries, ii) the evolution of the finance income share closely tracks other high-skill service industries, and iii) finance grew much slower than the rest of high-skill services in the post-WWII period. The rise of modern finance is not as remarkable as prior research suggests, providing context for debates about the size of finance.

Abstract We obtain optimal dynamic contests for environments where the designer monitors effort through coarse, binary signals—Poisson successes—and aims to elicit maximum effort, ideally in the least amount of time possible, given a fixed prize. The designer has a vast set of contests to choose from, featuring termination and prize-allocation rules together with real-time feedback for the contestants. Every effort-maximizing contest (which also maximizes total expected successes) has a history-dependent termination rule, a feedback policy that keeps agents fully apprised of their own success, and a prize-allocation rule that grants them, in expectation, a time-invariant share of the prize if they succeed. Any contest that achieves this effort in the shortest possible time must in addition be what we call second chance: once a pre-specified number of successes arrive, the contest enters a countdown phase where contestants are given one last chance to succeed.

ABSTRACT We examine the effect of large audit firms’ internal inspection programs, an important monitoring mechanism, on auditor effort and financial reporting quality. Internal inspections are often predictable, and engagement teams concentrate their effort on audits ultimately selected for inspections. The extra effort increases the likelihood of a favorable inspection rating. We find some evidence of improvement in financial reporting quality in the inspection year, suggesting that internal inspections are effective in deterring auditor shirking. Upon receiving a favorable rating, the engagement team reverts audit effort back to the preinspection level. However, if the rating is unfavorable, the team increases effort on future engagements of the client. This higher effort improves the client’s financial reporting quality if the internal inspection program is not deemed deficient by the PCAOB. Collectively, the results highlight the importance of an effective internal inspection program in improving financial reporting quality. JEL Classifications: M41; M42.

We classify asset pricing anomalies into those exacerbating mispricing (build-up anomalies) and those resolving it (resolution anomalies). We estimate the dynamics of price wedges for well-known anomaly portfolios and map them to firm-level mispricings. We find that several prominent anomalies like momentum and profitability further dislocate prices. Multi-factor models designed to eliminate one-month alphas still produce large price wedges. Our estimates yield a novel decomposition of Tobin’s q, revealing that q’s mispricing component has substantial explanatory power for firm investment. Overall, our results suggest that financial intermediaries chasing build-up anomalies negatively affect price efficiency and associated real capital allocation.

Abstract Municipal bond markets began pricing sea-level rise (SLR) exposure risk in 2013, coinciding with upward revisions to worst-case SLR projections and accompanying uncertainty around these projections. The effect is larger for long-maturity bonds and not solely driven by near-term flood risk. We use a structural model of credit risk to quantify the implied economic impact and distinguish between the effects of underlying asset values and of uncertainty. The SLR exposure premium exhibits a trend different from house prices and is unaffected by house price controls. Together, our results highlight the importance of climate uncertainty in driving municipal bond prices. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online

Abstract This study highlights the positive impact of a stock market listing on workplace safety. We find that workplace injuries in publicly listed firms are lower than those in comparable private firms, and this effect relates to heightened monitoring by the media and regulators. The media pays more attention to public firms’ safety issues than to those of private firms, and the reduced media scrutiny due to local newspaper closures leads to greater increases in injuries in public firms. Regulators also monitor public firms more strictly, evidenced by a higher likelihood of nonroutine inspections and larger penalties for detected violations.

Sovereigns usually back up their deposit insurance arrangements to lend them credibility. When the sovereign is in distress, the credibility of deposit insurance might be threatened, with detrimental effects to financial stability. We investigate the behavior of depositors during the euro area sovereign debt crisis to understand the importance of deposit insurance credibility. We find that depositors responded to foreign banks’ decision to convert their subsidiaries into branches. By relocating their deposits into these newly formed branches during a period of sovereign distress, depositors became insured by a deposit insurance scheme with a stronger fiscal backstop. These results document a novel channel through which sovereign-bank links can be reinforced during a crisis: the credibility of deposit insurance.

ABSTRACT We investigate the relation between tax rates and pretax returns by showing how implicit tax, tax incidence, and tax capitalization change in response to a tax rate change. We examine these issues in the context of both financial assets and real investments made by corporations in a competitive equilibrium in which all investments earn the same after-tax rate of return. Results show that the pretax return increases in the statutory tax rate due to an explicit tax rate effect and decreases due to a cost of capital effect; the net effect is ambiguous. In contrast, the implicit tax rate is weakly increasing in the statutory tax rate. We also relate our findings to the empirical literature on the effects of taxes on pretax returns. JEL Classifications: H22; H25.