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Public Policy and the Dynamics of Children's Health Insurance, 1986–1999

American Economic Review 2009 99(2), 522-526
The past 20 years have seen important changes in public policy with the potential for significant impacts on health insurance for children. These changes included both those explicitly intended to expand access to public insurance for children, including expansions in eligibility for Medicaid and the introduction of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), and other changes in antipoverty policy. Since health insurance coverage among children is entwined with parental welfare participation and employment, shifts in policy designed to encourage work in place of welfare participation--such as welfare reform and the expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)--may have secondary impacts on children's health insurance coverage. As parents leave welfare, with its guaranteed health insurance through Medicaid, for jobs that may or may not have health insurance coverage offered as a benefit, children may experience a change in the source of their health insurance coverage or may become uninsured. Similarly, changes in health care markets and economic conditions such as rising health care prices and cyclicality in the availability of employment may also affect children's coverage. Despite the potential importance of these factors for coverage, the fraction of children who are uninsured has remained largely constant, particularly through the 1990s. However, this relatively constant level of uninsurance may mask changes in the underlying dynamics of health insurance among children. In this paper, we use monthly data from the 1986–1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine patterns of health insurance coverage among children during the period 1986–1999, focusing on transitions between public coverage, private coverage, and no coverage. Using these data, we find that over the 1990s the rate of transitions among all three insurance states--public insurance, private insurance, and no insurance--increased, with a particular increase in transitions involving public coverage. We investigate whether there is evidence of a relationship between insurance transitions and various policy and economic variables, focusing on the impacts of expansions in public coverage availability, the effects of other policies directed at the poor that affect employment and insurance coverage, and economic conditions. We find that several of the policy changes that took place over the 1990s had important effects on health insurance transitions for children.

Level Playing Fields in International Financial Regulation

Journal of Finance 2009 64(3), 1099-1142
We analyze the desirability of level playing fields in international financial regulation. In general, level playing fields impose the standards of the weakest regulator upon the best‐regulated economies. However, they may be desirable when capital is mobile because they counter a cherry‐picking effect that lowers the size and efficiency of banks in weaker economies. Hence, while a laissez faire policy favors the better‐regulated economy, level playing fields are good for weaker regulators. We show that multinational banking mitigates the cherry‐picking effect, and reduces the damage that a level playing field causes in the better‐regulated economy.

Do Managers Value Stock Options and Restricted Stock Consistent with Economic Theory?*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2009 26(3), 899-932 open access
We conduct a field survey to investigate whether current mid-level and future entry-level managers (collectively managers) subjectively value stock options and restricted stock consistent with economic theory. We find that managers, on average, subjectively value stock options at greater than their Black-Scholes value and greater than fair-value equivalent restricted stock. This result contrasts with conventional economic wisdom that risk-averse employees discount the Black-Scholes value of an option. With respect to stock options, our results also reveal that managers, on average, have a lottery ticket mentality when subjectively valuing options, they value shorter vesting periods, and they value longer terms to maturity. With respect to stock options and restricted stock, we find that managers tend to extrapolate recently rising stock price trends to arrive at their subjective values. Overall, our results suggest that in some cases standard economic theory does not accurately reflect how managers appear to subjectively value stock options and restricted stock.

Interactions between Workers and the Technology of Production: Evidence from Professional Baseball

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2009 91(1), 188-200
This paper shows that workers can affect the productivity of their coworkers based on income maximization considerations, rather than relying on behavioral considerations such as peer pressure, social norms, and shame. We show that a worker's effort has a positive effect on the effort of coworkers if they are complements in production, and a negative effect if they are substitutes. The theory is tested using a panel data set of baseball players from 1970 to 2003. The results are consistent with the idea that the effort choices of workers interact in ways that are dependent on the technology of production.

Incentive Contracting and Value Relevance of Earnings and Cash Flows

Journal of Accounting Research 2009 47(3), 647-678
Accounting performance measures such as earnings and cash flows are useful for both valuation and performance evaluation purposes. However, little evidence exists on whether there is any association between these two roles. In this study, we provide large sample empirical evidence that the value relevance of earnings explains a significant amount of the cross‐sectional variation in the pay‐sensitivity of earnings and the incremental value relevance of cash flows explains variation in the marginal pay‐sensitivity of cash flows. We document that while both value relevance and compensation weight on earnings decline from the subperiod of 1993 to 1997 to the subperiod of 1998 to 2003, both value relevance and compensation weight on cash flows increase from the earlier subperiod to the later subperiod. Overall, our results provide additional evidence that value relevance of a performance measure plays a significant role in its use for performance evaluation.

An examination of IPO secondary market returns

Journal of Corporate Finance 2009 15(3), 316-330
IPO stock prices increased approximately 2.3% on the first day of secondary market trading over the period 1993 through 2003. While these aftermarket returns are accentuated during 1999 and 2000, they persist after the bubble burst and even increase as a percentage of total underpricing. We explore several non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain our findings including price support, laddering, retail sentiment, and information asymmetry. Our results are most consistent with the view that higher secondary market returns accrue to IPOs with more information asymmetries possibly due to price and aggregate demand uncertainty.

The joint estimation of bank-level market power and efficiency

Journal of Banking & Finance 2009 33(10), 1842-1850
The aim of this study is to provide a methodology for the joint estimation of efficiency and market power of individual banks. The proposed method utilizes the separate implications of the new empirical industrial organization and the stochastic frontier literatures and suggests identification using the local maximum likelihood (LML) technique. Through LML, estimation of market power of individual banks becomes feasible, while a number of restrictive theoretical and empirical assumptions are relaxed. The empirical analysis is carried out on the basis of EMU bank data. Market power estimates indicate fairly competitive conduct in general; however, heterogeneity in market power estimates is substantial across banks. The latter result suggests that the practice of some banks deviates from the average fairly competitive behavior, a finding that has important policy implications. Finally, efficiency and market power present a negative relationship, which is in line with the so-called "quiet life hypothesis". © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probability Judgment Error and Speculation in Laboratory Asset Market Bubbles

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2009 44(3), 719-744
In 12 sessions conducted in a typical bubble-generating experimental environment, we design a pair of assets that can detect both irrationality and speculative behavior. The specific form of irrationality we investigate is the probability judgment error associated with low-probability, high-payoff outcomes. Independently, we test for speculation by comparing prices of identically paying assets in multiperiod versus single-period markets. We establish that aggregate irrationality measured in one dimension (probability judgment error) is associated with aggregate irrationality measured in another (bubble formation).

Probability Judgment Error and Speculation in Laboratory Asset Market Bubbles

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2009
In 12 sessions conducted in a typical bubble-generating experimental environment, we design a pair of assets that can detect both irrationality and speculative behavior. The specific form of irrationality we investigate is the probability judgment error associated with low-probability, high-payoff outcomes. Independently, we test for speculation by comparing prices of identically paying assets in multiperiod versus single-period markets. We establish that aggregate irrationality measured in one dimension (probability judgment error) is associated with aggregate irrationality measured in another (bubble formation).

Initial Evidence on the Role of Accounting Earnings in the Bond Market

Journal of Accounting Research 2009 47(3), 721-766
We document that: (1) the incidence of bond trade increases during the days surrounding earnings announcements, (2) there is a bond‐price reaction to the announcement of earnings, and (3) there is a positive association between annual bond returns and both annual changes in earnings and annual analysts' forecast errors. All of these effects are larger when earnings convey bad news or when the underlying bond is more risky. Taken together, our results suggest that the nonlinear payoff structure of bond securities affects the role of accounting earnings in the bond market.