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Do sell-side analysts say “buy” while whispering “sell”?

Review of Finance 2024 28(4), 1275-1310 open access
We study here say-buy/whisper-sell behavior wherein analysts issue optimistic recommendations to attract retail investors while providing more accurate information to fund managers in private, sometimes resulting in fund managers selling the recommended stocks. We test whether fund managers return the favor using their votes for analysts in a Chinese “star analyst” competition. Managers are more likely to vote for analysts who exhibit greater “say-buy/whisper-sell” behavior toward these managers. This suggests that analysts reduce the accuracy of their public recommendations, thereby maintaining the value of their private advice to funds. Our findings help explain several empirical puzzles about analyst public recommendations.

Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News

Journal of Finance 2009 64(5), 2289-2325
Recent studies propose that limited investor attention causes market underreactions. This paper directly tests this explanation by measuring the information load faced by investors. The investor distraction hypothesis holds that extraneous news inhibits market reactions to relevant news. We find that the immediate price and volume reaction to a firm's earnings surprise is much weaker, and post-announcement drift much stronger, when a greater number of same-day earnings announcements are made by other firms. We evaluate the economic importance of distraction effects through a trading strategy, which yields substantial alphas. Industry-unrelated news and large earnings surprises have a stronger distracting effect.

Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather

Journal of Finance 2003 58(3), 1009-1032
Psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood. This paper examines the relationship between morning sunshine in the city of a country's leading stock exchange and daily market index returns across 26 countries from 1982 to 1997. Sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with stock returns. After controlling for sunshine, rain and snow are unrelated to returns. Substantial use of weather‐based strategies was optimal for a trader with very low transactions costs. However, because these strategies involve frequent trades, fairly modest costs eliminate the gains. These findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price setting.

Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2003 36(1-3), 337-386
This paper models firms’ choices between alternative means of presenting information, and the effects of different presentations on market prices when investors have limited attention and processing power. In a market equilibrium with partially attentive investors, we examine the effects of alternative: levels of discretion in pro forma earnings disclosure, methods of accounting for employee option compensation, and degrees of aggregation in reporting. We derive empirical implications relating pro forma adjustments, option compensation, the growth, persistence, and informativeness of earnings, short-run managerial incentives, and other firm characteristics to stock price reactions, misvaluation, long-run abnormal returns, and corporate decisions.

The Exploratory Mindset and Corporate Innovation

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2022 57(1), 127-169
We propose that chief executive officer (CEO) exploratory mindset (inherent desire to search for novel ideas and long-term orientation) promotes innovation. Firms with CEOs with PhD degrees (PhD CEOs) produce more exploratory patents with greater novelty, generality, and originality. PhD CEOs engage less in managing earnings and stock prices, invest more in research and development (R&D) and alliances, generate higher long-term value of patents, and experience more positive market reactions to R&D alliances. Their firms achieve superior long-run operating performance. They tend to be hired by research-intensive firms with poor financial performance. Evidence from managerial incentive shocks and turnovers suggests that these effects do not derive solely from CEO–firm matching.

Managerial performance, boards of directors and takeover bidding

Journal of Corporate Finance 1994 1(1), 63-90
This paper models the maintenance of management quality through the simultaneous functioning of internal and external corporate control mechnism—board dismissals and takeovers. We examine how the information sets of the board and the acquiror are noisily aggregated, and how this affects the behaviour of the board and the acquiror. The board of directors, acting ion shareholders' interests will sometimes oppose a takeover, and this opposition can be good news for the firm. An unsuccessful takeover attempt may be followed by a high rate of management turnover, because a takeover attempt conveys adverse information possessed by the bidder about the manager. If there is a probability that the board is ineffective, then a forced resignation of the manager can be either good or bad news for the firm. A positive effect is predicted to dominate when there is more adverse public information avilable about the manager's performance and when there is a higher ex ante probability that the board is ineffective, for example, of the board is management-dominated rather than outsider-dominated.

Macro news and micro news: Complements or substitutes?

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 145(3), 1006-1024 open access
We study how the arrival of macro-news affects the stock market's ability to incorporate the information in firm-level earnings announcements. Existing theories suggest that macro and firm-level earnings news are attention substitutes; macro-news announcements crowd out firm-level attention, causing less efficient processing of firm-level earnings announcements. We find the opposite: the sensitivity of announcement returns to earnings news is 17% stronger, and post-earnings announcement drift 71% weaker, on macro-news days. This suggests a complementary relationship between macro and micro news that is consistent with either investor attention or information transmission channels.

Shared analyst coverage: Unifying momentum spillover effects

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 136(3), 649-675
Identifying firm connections by shared analyst coverage, we find that a connected-firm (CF) momentum factor generates a monthly alpha of 1.68% (t = 9.67). In spanning regressions, the alphas of industry, geographic, customer, customer/supplier industry, single- to multi-segment, and technology momentum factors are insignificant/negative after controlling for CF momentum. Similar results hold in cross-sectional regressions and in developed international markets. Sell-side analysts incorporate news about linked firms sluggishly. These effects are stronger for complex and indirect linkages. Consistent with limited investor attention, these results indicate that momentum spillover effects are a unified phenomenon that is captured by shared analyst coverage.

Opportunism as a firm and managerial trait: Predicting insider trading profits and misconduct

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 126(3), 490-515 open access
We show that opportunistic insiders can be identified through the profitability of their trades prior to quarterly earnings announcements (QEAs) and that opportunistic trading is associated with various kinds of firm or managerial misconduct. A value-weighted trading strategy based on (not necessarily pre-QEA) trades of opportunistic insiders earns monthly four-factor alphas of over 1%, which is much higher than in past insider trading literature and substantial and significant even on the short side. Firms with opportunistic insiders have higher levels of earnings management, restatements, US Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement actions, shareholder litigation, and executive compensation. These findings suggest that opportunism is a domain-general trait.