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Demand Curves and the Pricing of Money Management

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(5), 1499-1524
One reason why funds charge different prices to their investors is that they face different demand curves. One source of differentiation is asset retention: Performance-sensitive investors migrate from worse to better prospects, taking their performance sensitivity with them. In the cross-section we show that past attrition significantly influences the current pricing of retail but not institutional funds. In time-series we show that the repricing of retail funds after merging in new shareholders is predicted by the estimated effect on its demand curve. This result is robust to other influences on repricing, including asset and account-size changes.

High‐Technology Intangibles and Analysts’ Forecasts

Journal of Accounting Research 2002 40(2), 289-312 open access
This study examines the association between firms’ intangible assets and properties of the information contained in analysts’ earnings forecasts. We hypothesize that analysts will supplement firms’ financial information by placing greater relative emphasis on their own private (or idiosyncratic) information when deriving their earnings forecasts for firms with significant intangible assets. Our evidence is consistent with this hypothesis. We find that the consensus in analysts’ forecasts, measured as the correlation in analysts’ forecast errors, is negatively associated with a firm’s level of intangible assets. This result is robust to controlling for analyst uncertainty about a firm’s future earnings, which we also find to be higher for firms with high levels of internally generated (and expensed) intangibles. Given that analyst uncertainty increases and analyst consensus decreases with the level of a firm’s intangible assets, we also expect and find that the degree to which the mean forecast aggregates private information and is more accurate than an individual analyst’s forecast increases with a firm’s intangible assets. Finally, additional analysis reveals that lower levels of analyst consensus are associated with high‐technology manufacturing companies, and that this association is explained by the relatively high R&D expenditures made by these firms. Overall, our results are consistent with financial analysts augmenting the financial reporting systems of firms with higher levels of intangible assets (in terms of contributing to more accurate earnings expectations), particularly R&D‐driven high‐tech manufacturers.

Building the IPO order book: underpricing and participation limits with costly information

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 65(1), 3-29
We examine the book-building method for marketing IPOs. In our model, the underwriter selects a group of investors along with a pricing and allocation mechanism to maximize (at minimum cost) the information generated during the process of going public. We also address the moral hazard problem faced by investors when evaluation is costly. When there is little need for accurate pricing, the expected gain from underpricing exactly offsets the investors’ costs of acquiring information. When pricing accuracy is important, however, the number of investors participating in the offering is larger, underpricing is greater, and investors can earn economic rents.

Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2002 84(2), 342-352
Corruption and imperfect contract enforcement dramatically reduce international trade. This paper estimates the reduction using a structural model of import demand in which insecurity acts as a hidden tax on trade. We find that inadequate institutions constrain trade as much as tariffs do. We also find that omission of indices of institutional quality biases the estimates of typical gravity models, obscuring a negative relationship between per capita income and the share of total expenditure devoted to traded goods. Finally, we argue that cross-country variation in the effectiveness of institutions and the consequent variation in the prices of traded goods offer a simple explanation for the stylized fact that high-income, capital-abundant countries trade disproportionately with each other.

Ethnic Chinese Networks in International Trade

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2002 84(1), 116-130
We find that ethnic Chinese networks, proxied by the product of ethnic Chinese population shares, increased bilateral trade more for differentiated than for homogeneous products. This suggests that business and social networks have a considerable quantitative impact on international trade by helping to match buyers and sellers in characteristics space, in addition to their effect through enforcement of community sanctions that deter opportunistic behavior. For trade between countries with ethnic Chinese population shares at the levels prevailing in Southeast Asia, the smallest estimated average increase in bilateral trade in differentiated products attributable to ethnic Chinese networks is nearly 60%.

Is the Growth of Small Firms Constrained by Internal Finance?

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2002 84(2), 298-309
This paper examines the long-standing theory that the growth of small firms is often constrained by the quantity of internal finance. Under plausible assumptions, when financing constraints are binding, an additional dollar of internal finance should generate slightly more than an additional dollar of growth in assets. This quantitative prediction should not hold for the relatively small number of firms which access external equity. We test these predictions with a panel of more than 1, 600 small firms and find that the growth of most firms is constrained by internal finance. Our results have implications for several different research literatures, including models of firm growth.

Can Web Courses Replace the Classroom in Principles of Microeconomics?

American Economic Review 2002 92(2), 444-448
The proliferation of economics courses offered partly or completely online (Arnold Katz and William E. Becker, 1999) raises important questions about the effects of the new technologies on student learning. Do students enrolled in online courses learn more or less than students taught face-to-face? Can we identify any student characteristics, such as gender, race, ACT scores, or grade averages, that are associated with better outcomes in one technology or another? How would the online (or face-to-face) students fare if they had taken the course using the alternative technology? This paper addresses these questions using student data from our Principles of Microeconomics courses at Michigan State University.

Entrepreneurship and Bank Credit Availability

Journal of Finance 2002 57(6), 2807-2833
The literature is divided on the expected effects of increased competition and consolidation in the financial sector on the supply of credit to relationship borrowers. This paper tests whether policy changes fostering competition and consolidation in U.S. banking helped or harmed entrepreneurs. We find that the rate of new incorporations increases following deregulation of branching restrictions, and that deregulation reduces the negative effect of concentration on new incorporations. We also find the formation of new incorporations increases as the share of small banks decreases, suggesting that diversification benefits of size outweigh the possible comparative advantage small banks may have in forging relationships.

The Schooling of Southern Blacks: The Roles of Legal Activism and Private Philanthropy, 1910-1960

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002 117(1), 225-268
Improvements in education and educational quality are widely acknowledged to be major contributors to black economic progress in the twentieth century. This paper investigates the sources of improvement in black education in the South in the first half of the century and demonstrates the important roles of social activism, especially NAACP litigation and private philanthropy, in improving the quality and availability of public schooling. Many scholars view education as a rival to social activism in explaining black economic progress, but such a view misses the important role of philanthropic and legal interventions in promoting education.