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Constructivist and Ecological Rationality in Economics

American Economic Review 2003 93(3), 465-508
When we leave our closet, and engage in the common affairs of life, (reason's) conclusions seem to vanish, like the phantoms of the night on the appearance of the morning; and 'tis difficult for us to retain even that conviction, which we had attained with difficulty (Hume, 1739/, p 507). we must constantly adjust our lives, our thoughts and our emotions, in order to live simultaneously within different kinds of orders according to different rules. If we were to apply the unmodified, uncurbed rules (of caring intervention to do visible 'good') of the small band or troop, or our families to the (extended order of cooperation through markets), as our instincts and sentimental yearnings often make us wish to do, we would destroy it. Yet if we were to always apply the (noncooperative) rules of the extended order to our more intimate groupings, we would crush them. (Hayek, 1988, p 18). (Italics are his, parenthetical reductions are mine).(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

The Misallocation of Housing Under Rent Control

American Economic Review 2003 93(4), 1027-1046
The standard analysis of price controls assumes that goods are efficiently allocated, even when there are shortages. But if shortages mean that goods are randomly allocated across the consumers that want them, the welfare costs from misallocation may be greater than the undersupply costs. We develop a framework to empirically test for misallocation. The methodology compares consumption patterns for demographic subgroups in rent-controlled and free-market places. We find that in New York City, which is rent-controlled, an economically and statistically significant fraction of apartments appears to be misallocated across demographic subgroups.

Computing Supergame Equilibria

Econometrica 2003 71(4), 1239-1254
We present a general method for computing the set of supergame equilibria in infinitely repeated games with perfect monitoring and public randomization. We present a three-stage algorithm that constructs a convex set containing the set of equilibrium values, constructs another convex set contained in the set of equilibrium values, and produces strategies that support them. We explore the properties of this algorithm by applying it to familiar games.

Simple Estimators for Treatment Parameters in a Latent-Variable Framework

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2003 85(3), 748-755
This note derives simply computed closed-form expressions for the average treatment effect, the effect of treatment on the treated, the local average treatment effect, and the marginal treatment effect in a latent-variable framework for both normal and nonnormal models. Asymptotic standard errors for versions of these parameters that average over observed characteristics are also obtained. The performances of the derived estimators are also evaluated in Monte Carlo experiments under correct specification and misspecification.

Cowards and Heroes: Group Loyalty in the American Civil War

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2003 118(2), 519-548
What motivated men to risk death in the most horrific war in U. S. history when pay was low and irregular and military punishment strategies were weak? In such a situation creating group loyalty by promoting social capital is of paramount importance and in the Civil War was the cement of both armies. We find that individual and company socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, ideology, and morale were important predictors of group loyalty in the Union Army. Company characteristics were more important than ideology or morale. Soldiers in companies that were more homogeneous in ethnicity, occupation, and age were less likely to shirk.

Equilibrium “Anomalies”

Journal of Finance 2003 58(6), 2549-2580
Many empirical “anomalies” are actually consistent with the single beta capital asset pricing model if the empiricist utilizes an equity‐only proxy for the true market portfolio. Equity betas estimated against this particular inefficient proxy will be understated, with the error increasing with the firm's leverage. Thus, firm‐specific variables that correlate with leverage (such as book‐to‐market and size) will appear to explain returns after controlling for proxy beta simply because they capture the missing beta risk. Loadings on portfolios formed on relative leverage and relative distress completely subsume the powers of the Fama and French (1993) returns to small minus big market capitalization (SMB) portfolios and returns to high minus low book‐to‐market (HML) portfolios factors in explaining cross‐sectional returns.

The Effect of Measurement Alternatives on a Nonfinancial Quality Measure's Forward-Looking Properties

The Accounting Review 2003 78(2), 555-580
Drawing on theories from operations, management, and marketing, this paper examines whether three types of measurement alternatives affect the forwardlooking properties of a quality measure. Using proprietary data from a medical services firm, the results show that the strength of the relation between a current quality measure and future quality-related warranty costs depends on: (1) the standard against which quality is measured, (2) assumptions regarding the relation's symmetry, and (3) assumptions regarding the relation's functional form. Thus, the construction of a quality performance measure may improve its ability to predict future financial performance and, hence, its usefulness for decision making and control. The paper concludes with an illustration of how firms can use a contemporaneous and forward-looking quality measure to assess quality-related decisions in a timely manner and shows that those decisions can be affected by the measurement alternatives examined.

Control in a Teamwork Environment—The Impact of Social Ties on the Effectiveness of Mutual Monitoring Contracts

The Accounting Review 2003 78(4), 1069-1095
This study examines control in a teamwork setting, experimentally investigating two financial incentive systems that have been proposed in the agency-theory-based analytic literature. Both systems rely on mutual monitoring—the ability of team members to observe each other's actions. However, the systems differ on whether team members report observations of their peers' efforts to management (vertical incentive system) or directly control the actions of each other (horizontal incentive system). Findings suggest that the effectiveness of these systems depends on the level of team identity. Specifically, a strong team identity leads to greater coordination. The result is that the effectiveness of a vertical incentive system is degraded by a strong team identity. On the other hand, a horizontal incentive system becomes more effective in the presence of a strong team identity. The results of this study suggest that when the team has achieved a high level of identity, the most effective way to use this information is likely horizontal in nature, delegating responsibility for control to self-managed teams, rather than extracting the information through reporting mechanisms. This study thus helps explain why firms have more readily embraced horizontal incentive systems than vertical incentive systems.