In this paper we investigate the reasons for the growth in the female labor force in America during the twentieth century. In our research, we study the longer-term trends since 1900 and conduct a more intensive examination of developments after the Second World War. On the basis of our work, we conclude that rising real wages accounted for 60% of the total growth in the female labor force. Half of this wage effect in expanding labor supply was the fertility-reducing consequence of a higher female wage.

This paper studies the extent to which macro-finance term structure models are susceptible to predictive uncertainty. We propose a general form of arbitrage-free models and quantify the relative importance of unpredictable priced risk variance, as well as macro-finance model uncertainty and learning uncertainty in predictability. Predictive performance and relative contributions of uncertainty sources are dynamically measured based on Bayesian methods, revealing dominating priced risk variance and other important uncertainty sources at different points in time. Macro-finance model uncertainty is high for near-term forward spread forecasts and contributes up to 87% of predictive uncertainty prior to recessions, implying strong dispersion in the information content of macro variables when forming near-term monetary policy expectations. (JEL C1, C3, C5, D8, E4, G1)