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Competitive Fair Division

Journal of Political Economy 2001 109(2), 418-443
Several indivisible goods are to be divided among two or more players, whose bids for the goods determine their prices. An equitable assignment of the goods at competitive prices is given by a fair‐division procedure, called the Gap Procedure, that ensures (1) nonnegative prices that never exceed the bid of the player receiving the good; (2) Pareto optimality, though coupled with possible envy; (3) monotonicity, such that higher bids never hurt in obtaining a good; (4) sincere bids that preclude negative utility; and (5) prices that are partially independent of the amounts bid (as in a Vickrey auction). A variety of applications are discussed.

International Differences in Male Wage Inequality: Institutions versus Market Forces

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(4), 791-837
This paper studies the considerably higher level of wage inequality in the United States than in nine other OECD countries. The authors find that the greater overall U.S. wage dispersion primarily reflects substantially more compression at the bottom of the wage distribution in the other countries. While differences in the distribution of measured characteristics help to explain some aspects of the international differences, higher U.S. prices (i.e., rewards to skills and rents) are an important factor. Labor market institutions, chiefly the relatively decentralized wage-setting mechanisms in the United States, provide the most persuasive explanation for these patterns.

Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture

Journal of Political Economy 1995 103(6), 1176-1209
Household-level panel data from a nationally representative sample of rural Indian households describing the adoption and profitability of high-yielding seed varieties (HYVs) associated with the Green Revolution are used to test the implications of a model incorporating learning by doing and learning spillovers. The estimates indicate that imperfect knowledge about the management of the new seeds was a significant barrier to adoption; this barrier diminished as farmer experience with the new technologies increased; own experience and neighbors' experience with HYVs significantly increased HYV profitability; and farmers do not fully incorporate the village returns to learning in making adoption decisions.

Price Destabilizing Speculation

Journal of Political Economy 1986 94(5), 927-952
It is sometimes asserted that rational speculative activity must result in more stable prices because speculators buy when prices are low and sell when they are high. This is incorrect. Speculators buy when the chances of price appreciation are high, selling when the chances are low. Speculative activity in an economy in which all agents are rational, have identical priors, and have access to identical information may destabilize prices, under any reasonable definition of destabilization. It takes extremely strong conditions to ensure that speculative activity (of the commodity storage variety) "stabilizes" price, even in a very weak sense.

Improving Climate-Change Modeling of US Migration

American Economic Review 2017 107(5), 451-455 open access
Manmade climate change (CC) has catastrophic consequences. The United States has already experienced wholesale population realignment due to climate as households have relocated to the Sunbelt and West. The irony is that people are moving toward the heat and major storms associated with CC. As CC intensifies, with high rates of internal US factor mobility, firms and households will likely again relocate to areas with higher utility and profits, reducing CC costs. Yet current research typically focuses on CC costs in a given location without considering this realignment. We propose several avenues to overcome such shortcomings in US CC modeling.

The Distribution of Wealth and the MPC: Implications of New European Data

American Economic Review 2014 104(5), 107-111 open access
Using a standard, realistically calibrated model of buffer-stock saving with transitory and permanent income shocks, we study how cross-country differences in the wealth distribution and household income dynamics affect the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory shocks (MPC). Across the 15 countries in our sample, we find that the aggregate consumption response ranges between 0.1 and 0.4 and is stronger (i) in economies with large wealth inequality, where a larger proportion of households has little wealth, (ii) under larger transitory income shocks, and (iii) when we consider households only use liquid assets (rather than net wealth) to smooth consumption.

Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 147-152
This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. We construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. We then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

Sinking, Swimming, or Learning to Swim in Medicare Part D

American Economic Review 2012 102(6), 2639-2673
Under Medicare Part D, senior citizens choose prescription drug insurance offered by numerous private insurers. We examine nonpoor enrollees' actions in 2006 and 2007 using panel data. Our sample reduced overspending by $298 on average, with gains by 81 percent of them. The greatest improvements were by those who overspent most in 2006 and by those who switched plans. Decisions to switch depended on individuals' overspending in 2006 and on individual-specific effects of changes in their current plans. The oldest consumers and those initiating medications for Alzheimer's disease improved by more than average, suggesting that real-world institutions help overcome cognitive limitations.

Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle

American Economic Review 2012 102(4), 1378-1413 open access
That the employment rate appears to respond to changes in trend growth is an enduring macroeconomic puzzle. This paper shows that, in the presence of a return to experience, a slowdown in productivity growth raises reservation wages, thereby lowering aggregate employment. The paper develops new evidence that shows this mechanism is important for explaining the growth-employment puzzle. The combined effects of changes in aggregate wage growth and returns to experience account for all the increase from 1968 to 2006 in nonemployment among low-skilled men and for approximately half the increase in nonemployment among all men.