This paper studies economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets and then, after idiosyncratic productivity shocks, retrade it in secondary markets that incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining, and liquidity frictions. We distinguish between full or partial sales (one firm gets all or some of the other’s capital) and document several long- and short-run empirical patterns between these variables and the cost of liquidity, as measured by inflation. Quantitatively, the model can match these patterns plus the standard business cycle facts. We also investigate the impact of search frictions, monetary and fiscal policy, persistence in shocks, and returns to scale.

We present a novel methodology for the out-of-sample forecast of the equity premium. Our predictive slope coefficient is a conservative constant that has a lower bias than the zero slope employed by the historical average, but has the same variance. We demonstrate that, theoretically and empirically, our method dominates the historical average in forecast performance. Our methodology establishes a simple yet powerful paradigm for exploiting the real-time equity premium predictability derived from a predictor. Applications of our method reveal that many predictors can forecast the equity premium, and that parameter estimates in previous studies add value to out-of-sample forecasts.

There is causal evidence that mortgage credit expansions increase house prices. Does an expansion of margin lending increase stock prices? Because unconstrained arbitrageurs are more important for pricing stocks than homes, the impact is not obvious. Tests are limited because sizable shocks to margin lending are rare. We examine a major Chinese margin-lending expansion between 2010 and 2015. Institutional holding, regression discontinuity, and event study evidence—exploiting the rollout of margin lending across stocks—shows that arbitrageurs anticipated and bought in advance of a significant causal effect of credit. We develop a model to rationalize our findings. Our estimates suggest that margin debt contributes to stock market fluctuations.

A general measure of asset market interdependence based on higher order comoments is developed and applied to studying weekly U.S. and eurozone equity returns from 1990 to 2017. A new test of independence is also developed. The empirical results show that interdependence peaks during the global financial crisis with the covariance and covolatility comoments being the dominant factors. Conditioning the interdependence measure on volatility does not change the overall qualitative results. Implications of the results for constructing diversified portfolios reveal economic benefits from portfolios based on higher order comoments than the usual assumption of bivariate normality, especially during the GFC. The empirical results also provide evidence that European Union membership led to higher interdependence than did the adoption of the common currency.

Child marriage remains common even where female schooling and employment opportunities have grown. We experimentally evaluate a financial incentive to delay marriage alongside a girls' empowerment program in Bangladesh. While girls eligible for two years of incentive are 19 percent less likely to marry underage, the empowerment program failed to decrease adolescent marriage. We show that these results are consistent with a signaling model in which bride type is imperfectly observed but preferred types (socially conservative girls) have lower returns to delaying marriage. Consistent with our theoretical prediction, we observe substantial spillovers of the incentive on untreated nonpreferred types.

Studying job matching in a Kelso-Crawford framework, we consider arbitrary constraints imposed on sets of doctors that a hospital can hire. We characterize all constraints that preserve the substitutes condition (for all revenue functions that satisfy the substitutes condition), a critical condition on hospitals’ revenue functions for well-behaved competitive equilibria. A constraint preserves the substitutes condition if and only if it is a “generalized interval constraint,” which specifies the minimum and maximum numbers of hired doctors, forces some hires, and forbids others. Additionally, “generalized polyhedral constraints” are precisely those that preserve the substitutes condition for all “group separable” revenue functions.

The persistently large number of uninsured, roughly 40 million per year since 1993, continues to elicit bipartisan policy interest. Coverage-expansion proposals without mandates, by far the most common since the defeat of the Clinton plan, must address risk-pooling realities in private markets. Insurers have strong financial incentives to segment risks and minimize pooling of heterogeneous risks, and narrow risk-pooling will diminish the adequacy of premium subsidies based on income alone, at least for higher-risk individuals. The current debate over flat tax credits and the non-group market is a case in point (Blumberg, 2001; Center for Studying Health System Change, 2002; Jack Hadley and James D. Reschovsky, 2002). We, along with nine other teams, were asked to develop a proposal that would expand coverage in a large and creative way (see Holahan et al., 2001). The proposal we developed would subsidize low-income individuals and families but also addresses the issue of inefficient and inequitable risk-pooling.

Access to firms’ innovation outputs determines the extent of knowledge spillover that poses risk to innovation appropriability. We provide plausibly causal evidence that processing costs of financial disclosures, which inform users of the economic value of innovation, play a key role in firms’ management of knowledge spillover. We exploit an exogenous, randomly assigned, and staggered policy shock by the SEC that reduces processing costs of mandatory financial disclosures. In response, firms reduce patenting rates, with the effect concentrated among firms in more competitive industries and with lower costs of capital. Firms also reduce their patent disclosure quality. Our results suggest firms rely more on trade secrecy as their innovation property protection mechanism. Lower processing costs of financial disclosures affect neither innovation inputs nor voluntary disclosure practices. Our results show that firms strategically manage access to their innovation outputs through financial disclosures, patent disclosures, and trade secrecy to curb knowledge spillover.

We investigate circumstances in which referral-based hiring can exacerbate rather than mitigate agency problems. When incentive contracts cannot fully align employees’ incentives with the interests of the firm, employees may behave opportunistically. Referred job candidates likely obtain inside information from existing employees about opportunistic incentive responses, and it is this information that exacerbates agency problems. Our research setting enables us to distinguish between referred and nonreferred employees. It also features a context in which the incentive contract consists of two measures with different properties (efficiency and quality), which allow for opportunistic incentive responses, i.e., sacrificing quality for efficiency. We find that referred employees focus more on efficiency and less on quality than nonreferred employees. We further document the persistence of this behavior and the differential departure likelihood of referred and nonreferred employees. Our findings suggest that referral-based hiring can exacerbate agency problems when incentive contracts allow for opportunistic gains. Data Availability: All data are proprietary. Confidentiality agreements prevent the authors from distributing the data.

Economics, social psychology, and management studies suggest that group identity plays an important role in directing employee behaviors. On the one hand, strong group identity could motivate high effort to resolve conflicts of interests in the workplace. On the other hand, it could encourage conformity toward group norms. We examine whether the effect of group identity is conditional on managers' performance reporting choices. Drawing on survey and archival data from a field site, we find that when performance transparency is low, the interest alignment effect is more salient and group identity positively relates to employee performance. However, when performance transparency is high, the conformity effect is more salient and higher group identity is associated with more homogeneous, but not necessarily higher, employee performance. Our findings contribute to the management control literature by documenting that managers' performance reporting choices determine whether group identity has positive effects on employee performance. Data Availability: Data in this study are derived from a proprietary source.