We examine whether media coverage affects credit rating change decisions by analyzing 732,426 newspaper items published by top U.S. media outlets on S&P 1500 firms. Our results show that negative media coverage has a strong association with credit rating change events, but positive media coverage does not. We find support for two channels that confirm this finding: the media's fundamental information content and the media's reputational pressure. Credit rating agencies appear to consider the fundamental information embedded in negative media coverage and recognize negative market sentiment when making rating change decisions.

We investigate the consequences for non-promoted executives (NPEs) in CEO tournaments. We find that NPEs' total incentives decrease following the end of a tournament based on evidence of their reduced future promotion prospects and limited adjustments to their compensation. Consistent with the theory that NPEs leave in response to this loss in incentives, results indicate that turnover is higher for NPEs who: (1) are ex ante more competitive for promotion, (2) compete in open tournaments without an heir apparent versus closed tournaments with an heir apparent winner, and (3) compete in tournaments with an outsider versus insider winner. Departed NPEs' subsequent career outcomes suggest that the labor market assesses NPEs who leave after open tournaments more favorably than those who leave after closed tournaments and tournaments with an outsider winner. Overall, evidence suggests that promotion tournaments can weed out low-quality managers, but also cause the unintended turnover of high-quality managers.

We examine whether public financial statement information is incrementally useful in forecasting confidential taxable income. More precise firm-level taxable income forecasts can improve policymakers' modeling of the tax system and the analysis of proposed changes in corporate tax law, while more accurate macro-level forecasts of corporate taxable income can improve estimates of corporate tax revenues, a significant component of the federal budget. We find the addition of financial statement information improves firm- and industry-level estimates of future taxable income by primarily providing more timely information, but also through accruals. Our results suggest that macroeconomic forecasts of taxable income may be further improved by the aggregation of firm-level forecasts that are generated using financial statement information. Importantly, our results are driven primarily by tax information in financial statements. We also contribute to the research on the information content of financial statement information for forecasting economic activity.

Amid growing globalization, many countries have offered tax incentives to attract corporate investment. Prior research studies the role such incentives play in firms' location and investment choices. However, we have limited evidence regarding the role that uncertainty about the intensity of future tax enforcement plays in those decisions. In 2013, the European Commission (E.C.) abruptly began investigating the tax-ruling practices of several countries in response to allegations that certain firms received preferential tax treatment (“state aid cases”). We use this setting to study the economic consequences of increased uncertainty about future tax enforcement. We find evidence consistent with significant reductions in U.S. multinational enterprises' subsidiary investments within, firm input purchases from, and aggregate investment of U.S. firms flowing to targeted state aid countries. Specifically, for U.S. multinational enterprises' subsidiary investments, we find fixed assets declined by 1.7 percent of total assets, or $7.6 million per subsidiary.

This paper discusses the role of process evidence in accounting research. We define process evidence broadly as data providing insight into how and why cause-effect relationships occur, and we provide a framework to guide the provision and evaluation of process evidence in accounting studies. Our definition allows for an expanded understanding of techniques for gathering process evidence. The framework highlights the importance of the study's goals and theory in choosing how to provide process evidence, as well as how much process evidence to provide. The paper also outlines the strengths and limitations of three approaches to providing process evidence: mediation, moderation, and multiple-study-based designs. We provide recommendations for best practices for each approach to minimize threats to validity and maximize the value of process evidence.