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Method of payment and risk mitigation in cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Journal of Corporate Finance 2016 40, 216-234 open access
We argue that the method of payment in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) can mitigate country-level governance risk for the acquirer. We find a greater use of stock as the method of payment in cross-border deals involving targets from countries with high governance risk relative to that in the acquirer's country. This increased use of stock in riskier cross-border deals is consistent with the optimal reaction of the acquirer to avoid overpayment, even though we also show that the use of stock (instead of cash) as the method of payment in cross-border deals is associated with a lower likelihood of deal completion. Furthermore, for more recent periods (i.e., after 2000) we show that the use of stock (cash) has increased (decreased) significantly in cross-border deals, resulting in convergence with the method of payment used in domestic deals.

Ability Peer Effects in University: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Review of Economic Studies 2016 84(2), rdw045 open access
This article estimates peer effects originating from the ability composition of tutorial groups for undergraduate students in economics. We manipulated the composition of groups to achieve a wide range of support, and assigned students—conditional on their prior ability—randomly to these groups. The data support a specification in which the impact of group composition on achievement is captured by the mean and standard deviation of peers’ prior ability, their interaction, and interactions with students’ own prior ability. When we assess the aggregate implications of these peer effects regressions for group assignment, we find that low- and medium-ability students gain on an average 0.19 SD units of achievement by switching from ability mixing to three-way tracking. Their dropout rate is reduced by 12 percentage points (relative to a mean of 0.6). High-ability students are unaffected. Analysis of survey data indicates that in tracked groups, low-ability students have more positive interactions with other students, and are more involved. We find no evidence that teachers adjust their teaching to the composition of groups.

Where does privatization work? Understanding the heterogeneity in estimated firm performance effects

Journal of Corporate Finance 2016 41, 329-362 open access
Why do the reported effects of privatization on firm performance vary so much? This paper provides new estimates of these effects and tests potential explanations for heterogeneity using comprehensive, long-panel data for 70,000 firms in five East European economies. We estimate that privatization raises measures of profitability, productivity, and growth by about 5–12% on average, but with substantial variation across countries and time periods. Analyzing heterogeneity in privatization effectiveness, we find little systematic role for firm size, financial dependence, exchange listing, or technological complexity, but important variation by fraction privatized, ownership concentration, firm quality, and the macroeconomic and institutional environment.

The confounding effect of cost stickiness on conservatism estimates

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2016 61(1), 203-220
Sales decreases affect earnings more than sales increases because of cost stickiness. We hypothesize that this correlated omitted variable constitutes a confounding effect in standard asymmetric timeliness models. Controlling for a piecewise linear effect of sales changes in these models decreases the measured asymmetric timeliness significantly and changes inferences about the average level of conservatism and the extent of cross-sectional variation in conservatism. Validation tests confirm that the asymmetry for sales changes is consistent with sticky costs and is distinct from conditional conservatism. Future empirical research on conditional conservatism should recognize the potential confounding effect of sticky costs.

Shared auditors in mergers and acquisitions

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2016 61(1), 49-76
We examine the impact of shared auditors, defined as audit firms that provide audit services to a target and its acquirer firm prior to an acquisition, on transaction outcomes. We find shared auditors are observed in nearly a quarter of all public acquisitions and targets are more likely to receive a bid from a firm that has the same auditor. Moreover, these shared auditor deals are associated with significantly lower deal premiums, lower target event returns, higher bidder event returns, and higher deal completion rates. These results are driven by bids in which targets and acquirers share the same practice office of an audit firm and in which the target is small. Overall, our evidence suggests that bidders benefit from sharing an auditor with the target. Our results are robust to controls for alternative explanations and for selection bias in the shared-auditor effect.

Can analysts pick stocks for the long-run?

Journal of Financial Economics 2016 119(2), 371-398
This paper examines post-revision return drift, or PRD, following analysts’ revisions of their stock recommendations. PRD refers to the finding that the analysts’ recommendation changes predict future long-term returns in the same direction as the change (i.e., upgrades are followed by positive returns, and downgrades are followed by negative returns). During the high-frequency algorithmic trading period of 2003–2010, average PRD is no longer significantly different from zero. The new findings agree with improved market efficiency after declines in real trading cost inefficiencies. They are consistent with a reduced information production role for analysts in the supercomputer era.

Unemployment and Business Cycles

Econometrica 2016 84(4), 1523-1569 open access
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, we do not impose wage inertia. Instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages. Our model outperforms a variant of the standard New Keynesian Calvo sticky wage model. According to our estimated model, there is a critical interaction between the degree of price stickiness, monetary policy, and the duration of an increase in unemployment benefits.

How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(4), 937-978
We show how optimal household decisions regarding work, retirement, saving, portfolio allocations, and life insurance are shaped by the complex financial options embedded in U.S. Social Security rules and uncertain family transitions. Our life cycle model predicts sharp consumption drops on retirement, an age-62 peak in claiming rates, and earlier claiming by wives versus husbands and single women. Moreover, life insurance is mainly purchased on men's lives. Our model, which takes Social Security rules seriously, generates wealth and retirement outcomes that are more consistent with the data, in contrast to earlier and less realistic models.

Continuing Overreaction and Stock Return Predictability

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2016 51(6), 2015-2046
We study the return predictability of a measure of continuing overreaction based on the weighted average of signed volumes. We find that the strategies of buying stocks with upward continuing overreaction and selling stocks with downward continuing overreaction generate significant positive returns and that our measure of continuing overreaction is a better predictor of future returns than past returns. The results are stronger among stocks primarily held by investors more prone to biased self-attribution. Our results provide direct support for the model of return predictability based on overconfidence and biased self-attribution.