Accounting choices, Investment decisions, Investors

Linked Loans, Real income accounting, Price level changes, Loans

In a neo-canonical monetary policy model, targeting of nominal GDP in terms of growth rates (not growing levels) is analytically equivalent to adoption of a policy that is optimal from a “timeless perspective,” in the sense developed by Woodford and widely utilized in recent monetary policy analysis.

Lanstein and Sharpe (LS) attempt to explain residual covariances between stocks on the basis of duration considerations. The results, by admission are mixed. Rather than to focus on these per se, I would like to further the work by making some suggestions with respect to the formal model development and the empirical tests-on the basis that both could be made crisper and thereby increase the value of what already is a contribution.

The relationship between an investor's attitude toward risk and the shape of his preference functions has long been recognized in both the general portfolio problem and the mean-variance model. By contrast, the literature has largely ignored the connection between general measures of an investor's attitude toward risk and the shape of his mean-variance or mean-standard deviation indifference curves. Yet this relationship is significant. Through general measures of risk aversion, assumptions about an investor's behavior under uncertainty imply restrictions on indifference curves. Conversely, assumptions about indifference curves impose restrictions on an investor's behavior under uncertainty. The development of this relationship and its implications is the objective of this note.

My comment was requested by the Chairman to be directed especially toward Dr. Robert Holland's excellent and thoughtful account of the changes, past and prospective, springing from the development of bank holding companies in American banking markets.

The theory of efficient capital markets suggests that if the capital markets are efficient, security prices can be assumed at any time to “fully reflect” all available information. Various forms of the model have been subjected to extensive empirical testing. The results of these tests have been such that in reviewing the literature on the theory Fama [3] states, “ … the evidence in support of the efficient markets model is extensive, and (somewhat uniquely in economics) contradictory evidence is sparse.” Most of the research, however, has been addressed to the question of whether prices “fully reflect” particular subsets of available information. The validity of these results depends on the extent to which the information in the subset used for testing captures the information actually impounded in prices.

The theory of efficient capital markets indicates that the prices in an efficient market fully reflect all available information. In much of the literature on efficient markets the term fully reflect is made operational with the assumption that the conditions for market equilibrium can be expressed as expected returns. Fama suggests that most expected return theories can be expressed in the following manner:(1) where — adopting Fama's notation — E is the expected value operator; Pjt is the price of security j at time t; Pj, t+1 is its price at t+1; is the one-period percentage return (Pj, t+1|Pjt); φt is a general symbol to represent whatever set of information is assumed to be fully reflected in the price at time t; and the tildes indicate that Pj, t+1 and rj, t+1 are random variables at t.