Abstract We present a real options model of a firm’s make-or-buy decision under demand uncertainty. “Making” is subject to decreasing returns to scale, fixed costs, and capital investment. “Buying” happens at a fixed price and requires no investment. Three distinct procurement regimes endogenously arise: buying, making, or concurrent sourcing for, respectively, low, intermediate, and high demand. Capital constraints encourage buying or concurrent sourcing. Operating leverage peaks when the firm switches between buying and making, and it is lowest (and negative) at the switch between making and concurrent sourcing. This non-monotonic pattern mirrors and drives the behavior of the firm’s beta.

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is a significant public health issue, and treatment, namely, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and defibrillation, is very time sensitive. Public access defibrillation programs, which deploy automated external defibrillators (AEDs) for bystander use in an emergency, reduce the time to defibrillation and improve survival rates. In this paper, we develop models to guide the deployment of public AEDs. Our models generalize existing location models and incorporate differences in bystander behavior. We formulate three mixed integer nonlinear models and derive equivalent integer linear reformulations or easily computable bounds. We use kernel density estimation to derive a spatial probability distribution of cardiac arrests that is used for optimization and model evaluation. Using data from Toronto, Canada, we show that optimizing AED deployment outperforms the existing approach by 40% in coverage, and substantial gains can be achieved through relocating existing AEDs. Our results suggest that improvements in survival and cost-effectiveness are possible with optimization. This paper was accepted by Dimitris Bertsimas, optimization.

This paper extends niche theory to develop an intraorganizational conceptualization of the niche that is grounded in the activities of organizational members. We construe niches as positions in a mapping of individuals to formal and informal activities within organizations. We posit that positional characteristics in this activity-based system are critical determinants of members’ access to information and relationships—two of the vital resources for advancement in organizations. Because activities are difficult to observe, we propose a novel empirical strategy to depict niches: we exploit a census of memberships in electronic mailing lists. We assess three niche dimensions—competitive crowding, status, and diversity—and show that these attributes affect the allocation of rewards to employees. Propositions are tested in two empirical settings: an information services firm and the R&D division of a biopharmaceutical company. Results indicate that people in competitively crowded niches had lower levels of attainment, whereas those in high status and diverse niches enjoyed higher attainment levels. We conclude with a discussion of email distribution lists as a tool for organizational research.

The U.S. economy has been going through a striking structural transformation--the secular reallocation of employment across sectors--over the past several decades. We propose a decomposition framework to assess the contributions of various margins of firm dynamics to this shift. Using firm-level data, we find that at least 50 percent of the adjustment has been taking place along the entry margin, due to sectors receiving different shares of startup employment than their employment shares. The rest is mostly due to life cycle differences across sectors. Declining overall entry has a small but growing effect of dampening structural transformation.

I have benefited from comments and criticisms of an earlier draft by Irma Adelman, Peter Balacs, Ronald Dore, Edgar Edwards, Unni Eradi, Michael Faber, Anne Gordon, Keith Griffin, Jill Rubery, Seev Hirsch, Ernest Stern, Frances Stewart, Hugh Stretton, B. R. Virmani, Gordon Winston and Howard Wriggins. To these, and to a research seminar at Queen Elizabeth House, I am very grateful. I am also grateful to the Economic Development Institute of the World Bank and its Director, Mr. Andrew Kamarck, for having provided the facilities and stimulating atmosphere for the early stages of a considerably larger paper, commissioned by Mr. Ernest Stern, of which this paper forms a part. I am grateful to Mr. Stern and the World Bank for permitting me to use the material here.

ABSTRACT This paper examines the approaches accounting researchers adopt to draw causal inferences using observational (or nonexperimental) data. The vast majority of accounting research papers draw causal inferences notwithstanding the well‐known difficulties in doing so. While some recent papers seek to use quasi‐experimental methods to improve causal inferences, these methods also make strong assumptions that are not always fully appreciated. We believe that accounting research would benefit from more in‐depth descriptive research, including a greater focus on the study of causal mechanisms (or causal pathways) and increased emphasis on the structural modeling of the phenomena of interest. We argue these changes offer a practical path forward for rigorous accounting research.

ABSTRACT Crowdsourcing—when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call—is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two‐day size‐adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.

We examine the relation between political uncertainty and cash holdings for firms in China. We document that, during the first year of a new city government official's appointment, a firm, on average, holds less cash, which is consistent with the grabbing hand hypothesis of politician. Our results are robust to alternative measures of cash holdings, instrumental variable estimation, sub-samples without firms in four major cities, a matched sample approach, and placebo tests. In addition, our additional analyses suggest that a firm holds significantly less cash if: (a) the newly appointed official is from a different city relative to that from the same city, (b) it faces high political extraction risk, and (c) it has strong twin agency conflicts. Lastly, our extended results suggest that the market value of cash holdings is significantly negative during periods of political uncertainty and firms hide their cash by moving it to related firms via related party transactions.

We propose a hybrid approach for estimating beta that shrinks rolling window estimates toward firm-specific priors motivated by economic theory. Our method yields superior forecasts of beta that have important practical implications. First, unlike standard rolling window betas, hybrid betas carry a significant price of risk in the cross-section even after controlling for characteristics. Second, the hybrid approach offers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample benefits for investors who use factor models to construct optimal portfolios. We show that the hybrid estimator outperforms existing estimators because shrinkage toward a fundamentals-based prior is effective in reducing measurement noise in extreme beta estimates. Received May 17, 2011; accepted October 7, 2015 by Editor Geert Bekaert.

This paper analyzes the role of establishments in the upward trend in dispersion of earnings that has become a central topic in economic analysis and policy debate. It decomposes changes in the variance of log earnings among individuals into the part due to changes in earnings among establishments and the part due to changes in earnings within establishments. The main finding is that much of the 1970s–2010s increase in earnings inequality results from increased dispersion of the earnings among the establishments where individuals work. Our results direct attention to the role of establishment-level pay setting and economic adjustments in earnings inequality.