We test and confirm that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases than to decreases in crude oil prices. Among the possible sources of this asymmetry are production/inventory adjustment lags and market power of some sellers. By analyzing price transmission at different points in the distribution chain, we attempt to shed light on these theories. Spot prices for generic gasoline show asymmetry in responding to crude oil price changes, which may reflect inventory adjustment effects. Asymmetry also appears in the response of retail prices to wholesale price changes, possibly indicating short-run market power among retailers.
The Review of Economics and Statistics199779(2), 267-278
This paper uses three different approaches to investigate whether the declining provision of public capital is a major cause of declining labor productivity. The juxtaposition of approaches removes the variability in estimates due to dissimilar variable definitions and econometric methodologies. Estimates are based on U.S. time-series data and are evaluated by the implied elasticities of substitution, the prediction of labor productivity trends, and the impact of public capital on productivity. As the three approaches yield very different estimates, it will be hard to ever settle the debate about the effect of public capital on private productivity.
Life-cycle models of labor supply predict a positive relationship between hours supplied and transitory changes in wages. We tested this prediction using three samples of wages and hours of New York City cabdrivers, whose wages are correlated within days but uncorrelated between days. Estimated wage elasticities are significantly negative in two out of three samples. Elasticities of inexperienced drivers average approximately −1 and are less than zero in all three samples (and significantly less than for experienced drivers in two of three samples). Our interpretation of these findings is that cabdrivers (at least inexperienced ones): (i) make labor supply decisions “one day at a time” instead of intertemporally substituting labor and leisure across multiple days, and (ii) set a loose daily income target and quit working once they reach that target.
The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model of factor service trade is a mainstay of international economics. Empirically, though, it is a flop. This warrants a new approach. We test the HOV model with international and Japanese regional data. The strict HOV model performs poorly because it cannot explain the international location of production. Restricting the sample to Japanese regions provides no help, inter alia giving rise to what Daniel Trefler calls the "mystery of the missing trade." However, when we relax the assumption of universal factor price equalization, results improve dramatically. In sum, the HOV model performs remarkably well.
We investigate the impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on the relative pricing of U.S. Treasury bonds. We obtain positive statistically and economically significant estimates for the implicit tax rates of a “representative” investor in the late 1970s and early 1980s. After the 1986 Tax Reform, the point estimates for the tax rate are close to zero. Tests for a regime shift associated with the 1986 Tax Reform support the hypothesis that this event largely eliminated tax effects from the term structure. We discuss both institutional and statutory explanations for this change.
The Accounting Review199772(2), 187-215open access
This paper develops and tests an option-style valuation model, whose main prediction is that equity value is a convex function of both earnings and book value, where the function depends on the relative values of earnings and book value. Earnings provides a measure of how the firm's resources are currently used. Book value provides a measure of the value of the firm's resources, independent of how the resources are currently used. When the ratio earnings/book value is high, the firm is likely to continue its current way of using resources, and earnings is the more important determinant of equity value. When earnings/book value is low, the firm is more likely to exercise the option to adapt its resources to a superior alternative use, and book value becomes the more important determinant of equity value. Evidence from a variety of empirical specifications is consistent with the convexity prediction.
This paper examines the relationship between the incidence of litigation events with potentially large damage awards and managers' accounting choices. We argue that the size of damage awards is a function of reported net income and net worth, and that this relationship provides management an incentive to manipulate accounting numbers. Our results indicate that managers of oil firms facing potentially large damage awards choose income decreasing non-working capital accruals relative to managers of other oil firms. Further, the results indicate that the management of these firms makes accounting choices that result in lower non-working capital accruals during the litigation period than in other years. These negative non-working capital accruals appear to result from the under-estimation of new reserves.
In their comment, Subhash C. Ray and Evangelia Desli (1997) (hereafter RD) point out that the specification of the decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index used by Fare et al. (1994) (hereafter FGNZ) is not unique, and propose and compute an alternative specification of that decomposition. We will discuss additional decompositions at the end of this note, but proceed here by comparing the RD decomposition with FGNZ based on both conceptual and computational grounds. RD provide a discussion of the overall Malmquist productivity index, including the important issue of when this index is equivalent to the traditional notion of total factor productivity (TFP) -namely under the condition that the technology be consistent with constant returns to scale (CRS). As they point out, this will yield a measure of TFP even if the true underlying technology is not CRS, for example. Both RD and FGNZ use the CRS technology to compute overall Malmquist productivity. One of the key issues raised is the role of the underlying scale properties of the benchmark technologies used to define and compute both productivity and its components. In particular, two reference technologies are employed in both RD and FGNZ: what we refer to as CRS and variable returns to scale (VRS) technologies.' By construction, these technologies are nested: the CRS technology contains the VRS technology, as in Figure 1 in RD. This nestedness provides the logical basis for our decomposition. At a very intuitive level, we would argue that these two benchmarks can be used to provide bounds on the underlying true-but unknown-technology.2 Intuitively we see the VRS technology providing a type of convex inner approximation, whereas the CRS technology provides a type of convex outer approximation. Thus these two technologies provide alternative benchmarks; they do not require that the data satisfy either CRS or VRS. Another possible intuitive interpretation is that the CRS captures a (perhaps hypothetical) long run and the VRS approximates the short run. As a technology, the CRS technology has some very useful features; for example, it captures the notion of maximal
Eight alternative methods of eliciting preferences between money and a consumption good are identified: two of these are standard willingness-to-accept and willingness-to-pay measures. These methods differ with respect to the reference point used and the dimension in which responses are expressed. The loss aversion hypothesis of Tversky and Kahneman's theory of reference-dependent preferences predicts systematic differences between the preferences elicited by these methods. These predictions are tested by eliciting individuals' preferences for two private consumption goods; the experimental design is incentive-compatible and controls for income and substitution effects. The theory's predictions are broadly confirmed.
The Geske–Johnson approach provides an efficient and intuitively appealing technique for the valuation and hedging of American‐style contingent claims. Here, we generalize their approach to a stochastic interest rate economy. The method is implemented using options exercisable on one of a finite number of dates. We illustrate how the value of an American‐style option increases with interest rate volatility. The magnitude of this effect depends on the extent to which the option is in the money, the volatilities of the underlying asset and the interest rates, as well as the correlation between them.