In a recently published paper, Edmans, García, and Norli (2007) reveal a strong association between results of soccer games and local stock returns. Inspired by their work, we propose a novel approach to exploit this effect on the aggregate international level with the following three unique features: i) The aggregate effect does not depend on the games’ results; hence, the effect is an exploitable predictable effect. ii) The aggregate effect is based on many games; hence, it is very large and highly significant. We find that the average return on the U.S. market over the World Cup’s effect period is – 2.58%, compared to +1.21% for all-days average returns over the same period length. iii) Exploiting the aggregate effect is involved with trading in a single index for a relatively long period.

This paper examines the intertemporal relation between downside risk and expected stock returns. Value at Risk (VaR), expected shortfall, and tail risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence and significance of a risk-return tradeoff. We find a positive and significant relation between downside risk and the portfolio returns on NYSE/AMEX/Nasdaq stocks. VaR remains a superior measure of risk when compared with the traditional risk measures. These results are robust across different stock market indices, different measures of downside risk, loss probability levels, and after controlling for macroeconomic variables and volatility over different holding periods as originally proposed by Harrison and Zhang (1999).

Itzhak Venezia, Haim Levy; Optimal Claims in Automobile Insurance, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 47, Issue 3, 1 April 1980, Pages 539–549, https:/

Fred D. Arditti, Richard C. Grinold, Haim Levy; The Investment-Consumption Decision under Capital Rationing: An Efficient Set Analysis12, The Review of Economic

Behavioral economic studies reveal that negative sentiment driven by bad mood and anxiety affects investment decisions and may hence affect asset pricing. In this study we examine the effect of aviation disasters on stock prices. We find evidence of a significant negative event effect with an average market loss of more than 60 billion per aviation disaster, whereas the estimated actual loss is no more than 1 billion. In two days a price reversal occurs. We find the effect to be greater in small and riskier stocks and in firms belonging to less stable industries. This event effect is also accompanied by an increase in the perceived risk: implied volatility increases after aviation disasters without an increase in actual volatility.

We use various stochastic dominance criteria that account for (local) risk seeking to analyze market portfolio efficiency relative to benchmark portfolios formed on market capitalization, book-to-market equity ratio and price momentum. Our results suggest that reverse S-shaped utility functions with risk aversion for losses and risk seeking for gains can explain stock returns. The results are also consistent with a reverse S-shaped pattern of subjective probability transformation. The low average yield on big caps, growth stocks, and past losers may reflect investors’ twin desire for downside protection in bear markets and upside potential in bull markets.

The experimental results of prospect theory (PT) reveal suggest that investors make decisions based on change of wealth rather than total wealth, that preferences are S-shaped with a risk-seeking segment, and that probabilities are subjectively distorted. This article shows that while PT's findings are in sharp contradiction to the foundations of mean-variance (MV) analysis, counterintuitively, when diversification between assets is allowed, the MV and PT-efficient sets almost coincide. Thus one can employ the MV optimization algorithm to construct PT-efficient portfolios.

The empirically documented Pareto wealth distribution at high wealth levels implies rather extreme wealth inequality. Is this inequality primarily due to differential talent, or is it due to luck? The answer to this question has profound political, social, and philosophical implications, as well as implications regarding market efficiency. We address this question theoretically and with a unique investment experiment with equal initial endowments and real out-of-pocket money. We show that the empirically observed Pareto distribution implies that luck, rather than differential investment talent, is the main force driving inequality at high wealth levels.

Diversification across time means changing the asset allocation over time. We show that under mild conditions diversification across time is inferior for all risk-averters and for all investment horizons, relative to a portfolio with the same average asset allocation, held constant over time. Target-date funds help reduce the variation in the asset allocation throughout the lifecycle, by implicitly considering the reduction in human capital with age. However, their structure implies two systematic deviations from constant asset allocation. We suggest a simple correction leading to a typical increase of 5%-22% in welfare.