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Inflexible Rules in Incentive Problems
In practice, contracts involve "standard terms" or "rules," allowing for variations only under "exceptional" circumstances. We develop a simple model in which optimal contracts display this feature, even in the absence of transactions costs. Rules arise when an agent has "countervailing incentives" to misrepresent private information. These incentives are created by endowing the agent with a critical factor of production ex ante. Applications in regulatory, labor, and legal settings are developed.
Macroeconomic Influences on Trade Policy
Nash Equilibrium Tariffs for the United States and Canada: The Roles of Country Size, Scale Economies, and Capital Mobility
A theoretical analysis of "optimal" (Nash equilibrium) tariff rates is presented. A numerical general equilibrium model is then used to find Nash equilibrium tariff rates for the United States and Canada. The Nash equilibrium tariffs are small relative to partial equilibrium estimates: 18 percent for the United States and 6 percent for Canada. The United States is essentially indifferent between the Nash equilibrium and free trade, while Canada is better off at the latter by $4 billion. Empirical results support theoretical predictions that the optimal tariff is smaller when the country is smaller, there are scale economies and free entry, and capital is internationally mobile.
Is Variety the Spice of Life? Implications for Calorie Intake
The income elasticity of calories generally is substantially smaller than the income elasticity of food expenditure. One reason may be an increasing concern for food variety as incomes increase. Food variety can be linked with two characteristics of food indifference curves: (1) curvature and (2) location of the curves relative to the axes. Estimates suggest increasing taste for variety as food budgets increase. Therefore, such taste for variety apparently underlies in part the low income elasticities for calorie demand, which in turn cast doubt on the World Bank assertion that the nutrient intakes of poor populations will improve rapidly with income.
How Fragile are Fragile Inferences? A Re-Evaluation of the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment
Extreme bounds analysis attempts to measure the effects of the uncertainty in the specification of the explanatory variables in a regression model on the estimated coefficients of interest. Standard errors for the stochastic extreme bounds are computed using the bootstrap technique. State-by-state cross section data are used to study the deterrent effect of capital punishment in the United States in 1950. The bootstrap standard errors are sufficiently large for some bounds to suggest caution in the interpretation of the empirical results regarding the fragility of inferences for the deterrent effect of capital punishment.
The Information in Governmental Annual Reports: A Contemporaneous Price Reaction Approach.
Considerable evidence exists that governmental accounting numbers are related empirically to bond risk and return measures. However, prior research does not preclude the possibility that accounting numbers merely reflect unobserved factors such as economic and political attributes impounded in bond measures. This study considers whether governmental annual financial reports convey new information directly to the bond market. Changes in bond prices during the period around the release date of governmental annual reports were examined to assess market responses to the reports. No significant evidence was obtained to suggest that municipal bond investors use the information in the annual report at the time of its release to adjust bond prices. In contrast, new bond issues and bond rating announcements were associated with significant market reactions. Thus, these results indicate that, while issuer-specific accounting information may be used by bond investors in conjunction with decisions involving new issues and rating evaluations, investors do not appear to impound the information directly into secondary market prices at the time the information is released.
The Economic Benefits of Regulation: Evidence from Professional Tax Preparers.
An area of concern to tax policymakers is the role of third-party preparers in Income tax reporting. This research examines the degree of consistency in judgments of preparers subject to differing degrees of governmental regulation. Economic theory of regulation suggests that CPAs, who are subject to a higher degree of government regulation, would be expected to recommend and justify more pro-taxpayer positions in ambiguous areas of tax law than would unlicensed preparers. This hypothesis was tested by administering a set of tax cases with a high degree of uncertainty regarding the correct tax status to groups of CPA and non-CPA tax practitioners. CPAs were found to be consistently more pro-taxpayer than were non-CPAs.
Security Price Response to Quarterly Earnings Announcements and Analysts' Forecast Revisions.
The degree to which earnings changes are thought to be permanent may determine the magnitude of the security price response to a given earnings announcement [Brown et al., 1985; Kormendi and Lipe, 1987; and Easton and Zmijewski, 1987]. This study extends this literature by examining the impact on stock prices of quarter ahead and year ahead forecast revisions, as well as forecast errors. Results indicate that analysts' forecast revisions provide significant incremental explanatory power in a pooled time-series, cross-sectional regression of abnormal returns on forecast errors and analyst forecast revisions, in addition, the fourth quarter announcement appears to provide more information to analysts and investors than interim announcements.
The Economic Benefits of Regulation: Evidence from Professional Tax Preparers
[An area of concern to tax policymakers is the role of third-party preparers in income tax reporting. This research examines the degree of consistency in judgments of preparers subject to differing degrees of governmental regulation. Economic theory of regulation suggests that CPAs, who are subject to a higher degree of government regulation, would be expected to recommend and justify more pro-taxpayer positions in ambiguous areas of tax law than would unlicensed preparers. This hypothesis was tested by administering a set of tax cases with a high degree of uncertainty regarding the correct tax status to groups of CPA and non-CPA tax practitioners. CPAs were found to be consistently more pro-taxpayer than were non-CPAs.]