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14-Week quarters

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2012 53(1-2), 271-289
Many firms define their fiscal quarters as 13-week periods so that each fiscal year contains 52 weeks, which leaves out one or two day(s) a year. To compensate, one extra week is added every fifth or sixth year and, consequently, one quarter therein comprises 14 weeks. We find evidence of predictable forecast errors and stock returns in 14-week quarters, suggesting that analysts and investors do not, on average, adjust their expectations for the extra week. The ease with which 14-week quarters can be predicted, and expectations adjusted, suggests a surprising lack of effort on the part of analysts and investors.

Non-executive ownership and private loan pricing

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 64, 101638
This paper examines the link between non-executive employee ownership and the terms and pricing of corporate loans. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in employee stock ownership is associated with 1.67% decrease in loan spreads and one fewer restrictive loan covenant. The negative effect of employee stock ownership on loan spreads remains significant when we use within-firm variation and perform an analysis with instrumental variables based on demographic characteristics to address the concerns of endogeneity. Further analysis reveals that employee stock ownership may affect loan spreads by improving corporate governance, curbing managerial risk-taking, reducing information asymmetry, and improving employee retention. In contrast, we find that employee ownership via stock options is associated with greater loan spreads, perhaps owing to their convex payoff structure. Overall, our results underscore the importance of the level and structure of employee ownership for pricing corporate loans.

What can we learn about credit risk from debt valuation adjustments?

Review of Accounting Studies 2023 28(4), 2556-2588 open access
Motivated by the debate about the introduction of the fair value option for (financial) liabilities (FVOL) and the requirement to recognize and separately disclose in financial statements debt valuation adjustments (DVAs), this study explores what we can learn about a firm’s credit risk from DVAs. Using a sample of US bank holding companies that elect the FVOL, we show that DVAs generally cannot be explained by the same factors that explain contemporaneous changes in bank’s credit quality. We further find that DVAs can explain future changes in credit risk when the fair value of liabilities is based on managerial inputs (Level 3). Overall our results suggest that managers have an information advantage in estimating credit risk and that DVAs provide inside information to the market.

Information Quality and Endogenous Project Outcomes

Contemporary Accounting Research 2019 36(2), 732-757
In this study, we show that when a firm needs external financing, information quality has real effects via financing contracts on the firm's input to influence its operational outcome. Interestingly, we find that higher information quality decreases overall efficiency. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering the role of information quality in the presence of the firm's input decision upon financing contracts. In particular, information quality has a feedforward effect on the firm's real input decision via financing contracts, which in turn has a feedback effect on financing contracts and overall efficiency.

Financial Education and the Debt Behavior of the Young

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(9), 2490-2522 open access
More than three-quarters of U.S. households bear consumer debt, yet we have little understanding of the relationship between financial education and the debt behavior of U.S. consumers. In this paper, we study the effects of exposure to financial training on debt outcomes in early adulthood. Identification comes from variation in financial literacy, economics, and mathematics course offerings and graduation requirements mandated over the 1990s and 2000s by state-level high-school curricula. The FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel provides debt outcomes based on quarterly Equifax credit reports from 1999 to 2012. Our analysis, based on a flexible event-study approach, reveals significant effects of financial education on debt-related outcomes of youth. On the extensive margin, financial literacy education has a sizable impact on the propensity of youth having a credit report. Conditional on having a credit report, on the intensive margin, math and financial literacy education exposure reduces the incidence of adverse outcomes - such as accounts in collections and delinquent accounts - and reduces both the likelihood of youth carrying debt and their average debt balances. The net effect of both math and financial literacy education is an increase in youths' average creditworthiness, as measured by the Equifax risk score. On the other hand, economic education increases the likelihood of individuals carrying balances, leads to significant increases in debt balances - in particular, debt used to support consumption - and, at the same time, increases the likelihood of adverse credit outcomes, leading to a decline in youths' average risk scores. The effects of these financial education policies accumulate over the course of early adulthood. Our results suggest that financial education programs, increasingly promoted by policymakers, are likely to have significant impacts on the financial decision-making of youth, but the effects depend on the content of these programs.

Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market

Econometrica 1990 58(3), 525 open access
This paper defines and tests a form of market efficiency called market dexterity which requires that asset prices adjust instantaneously and completely in response to new information. Examining the behavior of the yen/dollar exchange rate while each of the major markets are open it is possible to test for informational effects from one market to the next. Assuming that news has only country specific autocorrelation such as a heat wave. any intra-daily volatility spillovers (meteor showers) become evidence against market dexterity. ARCH models are employed to model heteroskedasticity across intra-daily market segments. Statistical tests lead to the rejection of the heat wave and therefore the market dexterity hypothesis. Using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of volatility in other markets.

Corruption transfer and acquisition performance

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 135, 106369
The relationship between corruption and acquisition performance is examined in this study, with a focus on stakeholder support. The findings indicate that total acquisition-related gains are reduced when firms with lower corruption pressures acquire targets with higher corruption pressures. Moreover, a negative relationship is highlighted between the corruption differential and the level of support provided by stakeholders. In addition, merger and acquisition deals with higher corruption differences receive lower average support from suppliers, customers, and employees. The evidence suggests that stakeholder commitment is a possible channel through which corruption affects corporate performance. Implementing anticorruption efforts and operating as a multinational corporation are two important factors that may reduce the impact of corruption on acquisition performance.

Structure and estimation of Lévy subordinated hierarchical Archimedean copulas (LSHAC): Theory and empirical tests

Journal of Banking & Finance 2016 69, 20-36
Lévy subordinated hierarchical Archimedean copulas (LSHAC) are flexible models in high dimensional modeling. However, there is limited literature discussing their applications, largely due to the challenges in estimating their structures and their parameters. In this paper, we propose a three-stage estimation procedure to determine the hierarchical structure and the parameters of a LSHAC. This is the first paper to empirically examine the modeling performances of LSHAC models using exchange traded funds. Simulation study demonstrates the reliability and robustness of the proposed estimation method in determining the optimal structure. Empirical analysis further shows that, compared to elliptical copulas, LSHACs have better fitting abilities as well as more accurate out-of-sample Value-at-Risk estimates with less parameters. In addition, from a financial risk management point of view, the LSHACs have the advantage of being very flexible in modeling the asymmetric tail dependence, providing more conservative estimations of the probabilities of extreme downward co-movements in the financial market.

Does revenue momentum drive or ride earnings or price momentum?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 38, 166-185
This paper examines the profits of revenue, earnings, and price momentum strategies in an attempt to understand investor reactions when facing multiple information of firm performance in various scenarios. We first offer evidence that there is no dominating momentum strategy among the revenue, earnings, and price momentums, suggesting that revenue surprises, earnings surprises, and prior returns each carry some exclusive unpriced information content. We next show that the profits of momentum driven by firm fundamental performance information (revenue or earnings) depend upon the accompanying firm market performance information (price), and vice versa. The robust monotonicity in multivariate momentum returns is consistent with the argument that the market does not only underestimate the individual information but also the joint implications of multiple information on firm performance, particularly when they point in the same direction. A three-way combined momentum strategy may offer monthly return as high as 1.44%. The information conveyed by revenue surprises and earnings surprises combined account for about 19% of price momentum effects, which finding adds to the large literature on tracing the sources of price momentum.