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Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2012 2(1), 1-30
This study examines battles between short sellers and firms. Firms use a variety of methods to impede short selling, including legal threats, investigations, lawsuits, and various technical actions intended to create a short squeeze. These actions create short sale constraints. Consistent with the hypothesis that short sale constraints allow stocks to be overpriced, firms taking anti-shorting actions have in the subsequent year very low abnormal returns of about −2% per month.

Mutual Fund Industry Selection and Persistence

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2012 2(2), 245-274
We analyze mutual fund industry selectivity—the performance of a fund’s industry allocation relative to the market. We find that industry selection accounts for a full third of fund performance based on two-digit standard industrial classification (SIC) codes, with the remaining attributable to the performance of individual stocks relative to their own industries. More importantly, we find that industry-selection skill drives persistence in relative performance. Unlike stock-selection ability, industry selectivity is not eroded by increasing fund assets. Our results suggest that accounting for a manager’s ability to pick outperforming industries provides information beyond standard performance measures that can enhance a fund investor’s future performance. (JEL G11, G14, G23)

Euro-Zone Equity Returns: Country versus Industry Effects

Review of Finance 2012 16(3), 755-798 open access
Abstract This paper uses style analysis to investigate whether Euro-zone equity returns are driven by country or industry effects over the 1990–2008 period. We find that before the introduction of the Euro, country effects dominate, while industry effects prevail after 1999. This reversal is driven mainly by the countries that were least integrated in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and world markets in the early 1990s and for which the EMU convergence process led to rapid strengthening of linkages with the core Euro-zone. For markets with stronger economic linkages, industry effects dominate both before and after the introduction of the Euro.

Quick Job Entry or Long-TermHuman Capital Development? The Dynamic Effects of Alternative Training Schemes

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(4), 1309-1339 open access
This paper investigates how precisely short-term, job-search oriented training programs as opposed to long-term, human capital intensive training programs work. We evaluate and compare their eects on time until job entry, stability of employment, and earnings. Further, we examine the heterogeneity of treatment eects according to the timing of training during unemployment as well as across dierent subgroups of participants. We nd that participating in short-term training reduces the remaining time in unemployment and moderately increases job stability. Long-term training programs initially prolong the remaining time in unemployment, but once the scheduled program end is reached participants exit to employment at a much faster rate than without training. In addition, they benet from substantially more stable employment spells and higher earnings. Overall, long-term training programs are well eective in supporting the occupational advancement of very heterogeneous groups of participants, including those with generally weak labor market prospects. However, from a scal perspective only the low-cost short-term training schemes are cost ecient in the short run.

Worker Absence and Productivity: Evidence from Teaching

Journal of Labor Economics 2012 30(4), 749-782 open access
A significant amount of work time is lost each year due to worker absence, but evidence on the productivity losses from absenteeism remains scant due to difficulties with identification. We use uniquely detailed data on the timing, duration, and cause of absences among teachers to address many of the potential biases from the endogeneity of worker absence. Our analysis indicates that worker absences have large negative impacts: the expected loss in daily productivity from employing a temporary substitute is on par with replacing a regular worker of average productivity with one at the 10th–20th percentile of productivity.

Social Networks and the Dynamics of Labour Market Outcomes: Evidence from Refugees Resettled in the U.S.

Review of Economic Studies 2012 79(1), 128-161
This paper examines the dynamic implications of social networks for the labour market outcomes of refugees resettled in the U.S. A theoretical model of job information transmission shows that the relationship between social network size and labour market outcomes is heterogeneous and depends on the vintage of network members: an increase in network size can negatively impact some cohorts in a network while benefiting others. To test this prediction, I use new data on political refugees resettled in the U.S. and exploit the fact that these refugees are distributed across cities by a resettlement agency, precluding individuals from sorting. The results indicate that an increase in the number of social network members resettled in the same year or one year prior to a new arrival leads to a deterioration of outcomes, while a greater number of tenured network members improves the probability of employment and raises the hourly wage.

Information Asymmetry, Information Precision, and the Cost of Capital

Review of Finance 2012 16(1), 1-29
Abstract This paper examines the relation between information differences across investors (i.e., information asymmetry) and the cost of capital and establishes that with perfect competition information asymmetry makes no difference. Instead, a firm’s cost of capital is governed solely by the average precision of investors’ information. With imperfect competition, however, information asymmetry affects the cost of capital even after controlling for investors’ average precision. In other words, the capital market’s degree of competition plays a critical role for the relation between information asymmetry and the cost of capital. This point is important to empirical research in finance and accounting.

Understanding the Real Rate Conundrum: An Application of No-Arbitrage Models to the UK Real Yield Curve

Review of Finance 2012 16(3), 837-866 open access
Abstract During 2004 and 2005, long-horizon interest rates fell sharply in major international government bond markets (Greenspan's “conundrum”). This common fall mainly reflected lower long real rates. To investigate possible causes, the authors apply a no-arbitrage affine modeling framework to understanding the UK real term structure. The authors find that time-varying term premia are important in explaining movements in long real forward rates. And, although there is evidence that long-horizon expected short real rates declined over the conundrum period, the authors’ results suggest that lower term premia played the dominant role. This could be consistent with the so-called “search for yield” and excess liquidity explanations for the conundrum.

Sources of Gains in Corporate Mergers: Refined Tests from a Neglected Industry

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2012 47(1), 57-89
Abstract Our work provides refined tests of the source of merger gains in a neglected industry: utilities. Utilities offer fertile ground for analysis of traditional theories: synergy, collusion, hubris, and anticipation. Utility mergers create wealth for the combined firm, consistent with both the synergy and collusion hypotheses. To distinguish between these hypotheses, we study rival stock returns across dimensions related to collusion: deregulation, geography, and horizontal and withdrawn deals. We also find that the impact of mergers on consumer prices is consistent with synergy rather than collusion. Analysis of industry rivals that become targets also rejects collusion and is consistent with anticipation.