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State-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: The Refinancing Channel

American Economic Review 2022 112(3), 721-761 open access
This paper studies how the impact of monetary policy depends on the distribution of savings from refinancing mortgages. We show that the efficacy of monetary policy is state dependent, varying in a systematic way with the pool of potential savings from refinancing. We construct a quantitative dynamic life-cycle model that accounts for our findings and use it to study how the response of consumption to a change in mortgage rates depends on the distribution of savings from refinancing. These effects are strongly state dependent. We also use the model to study the impact of a long period of low interest rates on the potency of monetary policy. We find that this potency is substantially reduced both during the period and for a substantial amount of time after interest rates renormalize. (JEL D15, E21, E43, E52, G21, G51, R31)

Markups Across Space and Time

Review of Economic Studies 2025 open access
Abstract In this article, we provide direct evidence on the behaviour of markups in the retail sector across space and time. Markups are measured using gross margins. We consider three levels of aggregation: the retail sector as a whole, the firm, and the product level. We find that: (1) markups are relatively stable over time and mildly procyclical; (2) there is a large regional dispersion in markups; (3) there is a positive cross-sectional correlation between local income and local markups; and (4) differences in markups across regions result from differences in the assortment of goods sold in different regions, not from deviations from uniform pricing. We propose a simple model consistent with these facts.